Better German and Chinese economic data and hope of a U.S./China trade deal are weighing on Treasuries this morning and providing a boost for risk markets. The 10-year yield is up to the highest level in more than a month (2.74%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%. Personal income and spending data was weaker than expected in December, but markets are largely dismissing the data given the age of the data and the fact that the Q4 GDP report released yesterday already incorporated it. February ISM data will be release later this morning, and this report should provide a more timely assessment of economic sentiment.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/25/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | -0.43 | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| 2/25/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 1.10% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 2/25/2019 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | -0.30% | -1.00% | -0.60% | -1.20% |
| 2/25/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 4.7 | 13.1 | 1 | — |
| 2/26/2019 | Housing Starts | 1256k | 1078k | 1256k | 1214k |
| 2/26/2019 | Building Permits | 1290k | 1326k | 1328k | 1322k |
| 2/26/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.10% | -11.20% | 3.20% | 0.40% |
| 2/26/2019 | Building Permits MoM | -2.60% | 0.30% | 5.00% | 4.50% |
| 2/26/2019 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.10% | 1.30% | — |
| 2/26/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 2/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.25% |
| 2/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.50% | 4.18% | 4.68% | 4.58% |
| 2/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 212.96 | 213.66 | 213.45 |
| 2/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.72% | 5.19% | 5.09% |
| 2/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.35 | 205.85 | 205.64 |
| 2/26/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 5 | 16 | -2 | — |
| 2/26/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 124.9 | 131.4 | 120.2 | 121.7 |
| 2/26/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 173.5 | 169.6 | 170.2 |
| 2/26/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 103.4 | 87.3 | 89.4 |
| 2/27/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 5.30% | 3.60% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.6b | -$79.5b | -$70.5b | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.90% | -0.40% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Revisions: Pending Home Sales SA | ||||
| 2/27/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | 4.60% | -2.20% | -2.30% |
| 2/27/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.60% | -3.20% | -9.50% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Factory Orders | 0.60% | 0.10% | -0.60% | -0.50% |
| 2/27/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | -0.60% | -1.30% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | — | 1.20% | 1.20% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -1.00% | -0.70% | — |
| 2/27/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.00% | 0.50% | — |
| 2/28/2019 | BEA Releasing Initial 4Q GDP (Combining Initial/Second) | ||||
| 2/28/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 225k | 216k | 217k |
| 2/28/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1737k | 1805k | 1725k | 1726k |
| 2/28/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.20% | 2.60% | 3.40% | — |
| 2/28/2019 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | 2.80% | 3.50% | — |
| 2/28/2019 | GDP Price Index | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | — |
| 2/28/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.60% | — |
| 2/28/2019 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 57.5 | 64.7 | 56.7 | — |
| 2/28/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 61 | 59.6 | — |
| 2/28/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 6 | 1 | 5 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | BEA to Release Dec. income/spending & Jan income | ||||
| 3/1/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | -0.10% | — | 1.00% |
| 3/1/2019 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 1.00% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 3/1/2019 | Personal Spending | -0.30% | -0.50% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 3/1/2019 | Real Personal Spending | -0.30% | -0.60% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 3/1/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 3/1/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
| 3/1/2019 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 3/1/2019 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% | — |
| 3/1/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.7 | — | 53.7 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 55.8 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | ISM Employment | — | — | 55.5 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 51.8 | — | 49.6 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 58.2 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.9 | — | 95.5 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 110 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.2 | — |
| 3/1/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 3/1/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 3/1/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | — | 16.60m | — |