Better German and Chinese economic data and hope of a U.S./China trade deal are weighing on Treasuries this morning and providing a boost for risk markets. The 10-year yield is up to the highest level in more than a month (2.74%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%. Personal income and spending data was weaker than expected in December, but markets are largely dismissing the data given the age of the data and the fact that the Q4 GDP report released yesterday already incorporated it. February ISM data will be release later this morning, and this report should provide a more timely assessment of economic sentiment.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/25/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.1-0.430.270.05
2/25/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%1.10%0.30%0.40%
2/25/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.30%-1.00%-0.60%-1.20%
2/25/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity4.713.11
2/26/2019Housing Starts1256k1078k1256k1214k
2/26/2019Building Permits1290k1326k1328k1322k
2/26/2019Housing Starts MoM-0.10%-11.20%3.20%0.40%
2/26/2019Building Permits MoM-2.60%0.30%5.00%4.50%
2/26/2019House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.10%1.30%
2/26/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%
2/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.19%0.30%0.25%
2/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.50%4.18%4.68%4.58%
2/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index212.96213.66213.45
2/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.72%5.19%5.09%
2/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35205.85205.64
2/26/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index516-2
2/26/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence124.9131.4120.2121.7
2/26/2019Conf. Board Present Situation173.5169.6170.2
2/26/2019Conf. Board Expectations103.487.389.4
2/27/2019MBA Mortgage Applications5.30%3.60%
2/27/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.6b-$79.5b-$70.5b
2/27/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.90%-0.40%
2/27/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%1.10%1.10%
2/27/2019Revisions: Pending Home Sales SA
2/27/2019Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%4.60%-2.20%-2.30%
2/27/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.60%-3.20%-9.50%
2/27/2019Factory Orders0.60%0.10%-0.60%-0.50%
2/27/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.60%-1.30%
2/27/2019Durable Goods Orders1.20%1.20%
2/27/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.10%
2/27/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-1.00%-0.70%
2/27/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.50%
2/28/2019BEA Releasing Initial 4Q GDP (Combining Initial/Second)
2/28/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k225k216k217k
2/28/2019Continuing Claims1737k1805k1725k1726k
2/28/2019GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.60%3.40%
2/28/2019Personal Consumption3.00%2.80%3.50%
2/28/2019GDP Price Index1.70%1.80%1.80%
2/28/2019Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.70%1.60%
2/28/2019Chicago Purchasing Manager57.564.756.7
2/28/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6159.6
2/28/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity615
3/1/2019BEA to Release Dec. income/spending & Jan income
3/1/2019Personal Income0.30%-0.10%1.00%
3/1/2019Personal Income0.40%1.00%0.20%0.30%
3/1/2019Personal Spending-0.30%-0.50%0.40%0.60%
3/1/2019Real Personal Spending-0.30%-0.60%0.30%0.50%
3/1/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.10%0.10%0.00%
3/1/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.70%1.80%
3/1/2019PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
3/1/2019PCE Core YoY1.90%1.90%1.90%
3/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.753.7
3/1/2019ISM Manufacturing55.856.6
3/1/2019ISM Employment55.5
3/1/2019ISM Prices Paid51.849.6
3/1/2019ISM New Orders58.2
3/1/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment95.995.5
3/1/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions110
3/1/2019U. of Mich. Expectations86.2
3/1/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
3/1/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%
3/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.60m