March 2, 2021 Headlines

Despite weaker European economic data, including the first rise in German unemployment since last June, Treasury yields are drifting higher and steeper this morning on increased overseas government bond supply. U.S. equity futures are pointing to a modest decline at the open following yesterday’s 2-3% rally across the major indices. According to a New York Times article, the pandemic did not bring on the financial rout for U.S. states than many have feared (or proclaimed). According to data from Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, state tax revenues from April through December were down only 1.8% from the same period in 2019, and separate research from Moody’s Analytics showed that 31 states now had enough cash to fully absorb the economic stress of the recession on their own. The $1.9 trillion aid package passed by the House included $350 billion of emergency aid for state and local governments, and this article will almost certainly be used by Republicans in the argument against passing such a large package in the Senate.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 58.5 58.6 58.5 —
03/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 1.70% 1.00% 1.10%
03/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 58.9 60.8 58.7 —
03/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 80 86 82.1 —
03/01/21 ISM New Orders 60 64.8 61.1 —
03/01/21 ISM Employment — 54.4 52.6 —
03/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m — 16.63m —
03/03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -11.40% —
03/03/21 ADP Employment Change 200k — 174k —
03/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 58.8 —
03/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 58.9 — 58.9 —
03/03/21 ISM Services Index 58.7 — 58.7 —
03/03/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 17.40% —
03/04/21 Nonfarm Productivity -4.70% — -4.80% —
03/04/21 Unit Labor Costs 6.60% — 6.80% —
03/04/21 Initial Jobless Claims 755k — 730k —
03/04/21 Continuing Claims 4300k — 4419k —
03/04/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 47.3 —
03/04/21 Durable Goods Orders 3.40% — 3.40% —
03/04/21 Factory Orders 2.10% — 1.10% —
03/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.40% — 1.40% —
03/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 1.40% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% — 0.50% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.10% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% — 5.40% —
03/05/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 195k — 49k —
03/05/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -159k —
03/05/21 Change in Private Payrolls 200k — 6k —
03/05/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k — -10k —
03/05/21 Unemployment Rate 6.30% — 6.30% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
03/05/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 — 35 —
03/05/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40% — 61.40% —
03/05/21 Underemployment Rate — — 11.10% —
03/05/21 Trade Balance -$67.5b — -$66.6b —
03/05/21 Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21 Consumer Credit $12.000b — $9.734b —

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