March 2, 2021 Headlines

Despite weaker European economic data, including the first rise in German unemployment since last June, Treasury yields are drifting higher and steeper this morning on increased overseas government bond supply. U.S. equity futures are pointing to a modest decline at the open following yesterday’s 2-3% rally across the major indices. According to a New York Times article, the pandemic did not bring on the financial rout for U.S. states than many have feared (or proclaimed). According to data from Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, state tax revenues from April through December were down only 1.8% from the same period in 2019, and separate research from Moody’s Analytics showed that 31 states now had enough cash to fully absorb the economic stress of the recession on their own. The $1.9 trillion aid package passed by the House included $350 billion of emergency aid for state and local governments, and this article will almost certainly be used by Republicans in the argument against passing such a large package in the Senate.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI58.558.658.5
03/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.80%1.70%1.00%1.10%
03/01/21ISM Manufacturing58.960.858.7
03/01/21ISM Prices Paid808682.1
03/01/21ISM New Orders6064.861.1
03/01/21ISM Employment54.452.6
03/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m16.63m
03/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications-11.40%
03/03/21ADP Employment Change200k174k
03/03/21Markit US Composite PMI58.8
03/03/21Markit US Services PMI58.958.9
03/03/21ISM Services Index58.758.7
03/03/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY17.40%
03/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-4.70%-4.80%
03/04/21Unit Labor Costs6.60%6.80%
03/04/21Initial Jobless Claims755k730k
03/04/21Continuing Claims4300k4419k
03/04/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.3
03/04/21Durable Goods Orders3.40%3.40%
03/04/21Factory Orders2.10%1.10%
03/04/21Durables Ex Transportation1.40%1.40%
03/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans1.40%
03/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.50%
03/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.10%
03/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.30%5.40%
03/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k49k
03/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-159k
03/05/21Change in Private Payrolls200k6k
03/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k-10k
03/05/21Unemployment Rate6.30%6.30%
03/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.20%
03/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.935
03/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%61.40%
03/05/21Underemployment Rate11.10%
03/05/21Trade Balance-$67.5b-$66.6b
03/05/21Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.734b

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