March 2, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and flatter this morning in response to a spike in oil and grain commodity prices related to the Russia/Ukraine war. U.S. and European equity markets have rebounded overnight on reports that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a second round of talks. All eyes now shift to Fed Chair Powell and his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell has an even tougher task before him given the current tensions in Europe all the while inflation remains at multi-decade highs (and commodity prices are rising further). He will likely do his best to walk a very tight line regarding guidance on future policy. The market is now pricing for 5 rate hikes in 2022, down from six prior to Russia’s invasion last week, and pricing for a potential 50 bps rate hike on March 16 has fully faded.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/28/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$99.5b-$107.6b-$101.0b-$100.5b
02/28/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%0.80%2.20%2.30%
02/28/22Retail Inventories MoM1.00%1.90%4.40%4.70%
02/28/22MNI Chicago PMI62.356.365.2
02/28/22Dallas Fed Manf. Activity4.3142
03/01/22Markit US Manufacturing PMI57.557.357.5
03/01/22Construction Spending MoM0.10%1.30%0.20%0.80%
03/01/22ISM Manufacturing5858.657.6
03/01/22ISM Prices Paid77.575.676.1
03/01/22ISM New Orders56.361.757.9
03/01/22ISM Employment54.252.954.5
03/01/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.40m14.07m15.04m
03/02/22MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%-13.10%
03/02/22ADP Employment Change375k475k-301k509k
03/02/22U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/03/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-76.00%
03/03/22Nonfarm Productivity6.70%6.60%
03/03/22Unit Labor Costs0.30%0.30%
03/03/22Initial Jobless Claims225k232k
03/03/22Continuing Claims1420k1476k
03/03/22Markit US Services PMI56.756.7
03/03/22Markit US Composite PMI5656
03/03/22ISM Services Index61.159.9
03/03/22Factory Orders0.70%-0.40%
03/03/22Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
03/03/22Durable Goods Orders1.60%1.60%
03/03/22Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
03/03/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%
03/03/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.90%
03/04/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision709k
03/04/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls403k467k
03/04/22Change in Private Payrolls383k444k
03/04/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls24k13k
03/04/22Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%
03/04/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.50%0.70%
03/04/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.80%5.70%
03/04/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.634.5
03/04/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.20%62.20%
03/04/22Underemployment Rate7.10%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.