March 2, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and flatter this morning in response to a spike in oil and grain commodity prices related to the Russia/Ukraine war. U.S. and European equity markets have rebounded overnight on reports that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a second round of talks. All eyes now shift to Fed Chair Powell and his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell has an even tougher task before him given the current tensions in Europe all the while inflation remains at multi-decade highs (and commodity prices are rising further). He will likely do his best to walk a very tight line regarding guidance on future policy. The market is now pricing for 5 rate hikes in 2022, down from six prior to Russia’s invasion last week, and pricing for a potential 50 bps rate hike on March 16 has fully faded.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/28/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$99.5b	-$107.6b	-$101.0b	-$100.5b
02/28/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.30%	0.80%	2.20%	2.30%
02/28/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.00%	1.90%	4.40%	4.70%
02/28/22	MNI Chicago PMI	62.3	56.3	65.2	—
02/28/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	4.3	14	2	—
03/01/22	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	57.3	57.5	—
03/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.10%	1.30%	0.20%	0.80%
03/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	58	58.6	57.6	—
03/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	77.5	75.6	76.1	—
03/01/22	ISM New Orders	56.3	61.7	57.9	—
03/01/22	ISM Employment	54.2	52.9	54.5	—
03/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.40m	14.07m	15.04m	—
03/02/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.70%	-13.10%	—
03/02/22	ADP Employment Change	375k	475k	-301k	509k
03/02/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/03/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-76.00%	—
03/03/22	Nonfarm Productivity	6.70%	—	6.60%	—
03/03/22	Unit Labor Costs	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
03/03/22	Initial Jobless Claims	225k	—	232k	—
03/03/22	Continuing Claims	1420k	—	1476k	—
03/03/22	Markit US Services PMI	56.7	—	56.7	—
03/03/22	Markit US Composite PMI	56	—	56	—
03/03/22	ISM Services Index	61.1	—	59.9	—
03/03/22	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	-0.40%	—
03/03/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.10%	—
03/03/22	Durable Goods Orders	1.60%	—	1.60%	—
03/03/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	—	0.70%	—
03/03/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.90%	—
03/03/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.90%	—
03/04/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	709k	—
03/04/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	403k	—	467k	—
03/04/22	Change in Private Payrolls	383k	—	444k	—
03/04/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	24k	—	13k	—
03/04/22	Unemployment Rate	3.90%	—	4.00%	—
03/04/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
03/04/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.80%	—	5.70%	—
03/04/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.5	—
03/04/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.20%	—	62.20%	—
03/04/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.10%	—

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