Treasuries and US equities are little changed to start the day as markets digest this weekend’s headlines, including the news that UBS would buy Credit Suisse in a deal brokered by the Swiss government. In other news, a subsidiary of New York Community Bancorp (Flagstar Bank) is taking over the deposits and some loans of failed Signature Bank, and as part of the deal, the FDIC gets equity appreciation rights of NYBC common stock valued at up to $300 million. The Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America, a confederation of midsize US banks, sent a letter to federal regulators requesting an extension of FDIC insurance to all deposits for a 2-year timeframe to stem the risk of a broader bank run. Spokespersons of the FDIC, Fed, OCC, and Treasury all declined to comment on the request. In addition to monitoring the US bank situation, particularly regional banks, focus now also shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are pricing close to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike , but some are speculating that the Fed may choose to pause given the turmoil in the banking system. Last week, the ECB still moved forward with a 50 basis point hike.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/21/23 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | 3.2 | — |
| 3/21/23 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.00m | — |
| 3/21/23 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 5.00% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 3/22/23 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 6.50% | — |
| 3/22/23 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.00% | — | 4.75% | — |
| 3/22/23 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.75% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/22/23 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.90% | — | 4.65% | — |
| 3/23/23 | Current Account Balance | -$213.3b | — | -$217.1b | — |
| 3/23/23 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | — | 192k | — |
| 3/23/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | — | 0.23 | — |
| 3/23/23 | Continuing Claims | 1691k | — | 1684k | — |
| 3/23/23 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 670k | — |
| 3/23/23 | New Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | — | 7.20% | — |
| 3/23/23 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -2 | — | 0 | — |
| 3/24/23 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | — | -4.50% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 50.3 | — | 50.6 | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.1 | — |
| 3/24/23 | Revisions: Wholesale Inventories | ||||
| 3/24/23 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 1 | — |
| 3/27/23 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -13.5 | — |
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