March 20, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries and US equities are little changed to start the day as markets digest this weekend’s headlines, including the news that UBS would buy Credit Suisse in a deal brokered by the Swiss government. In other news, a subsidiary of New York Community Bancorp (Flagstar Bank) is taking over the deposits and some loans of failed Signature Bank, and as part of the deal, the FDIC gets equity appreciation rights of NYBC common stock valued at up to $300 million. The Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America, a confederation of midsize US banks, sent a letter to federal regulators requesting an extension of FDIC insurance to all deposits for a 2-year timeframe to stem the risk of a broader bank run. Spokespersons of the FDIC, Fed, OCC, and Treasury all declined to comment on the request. In addition to monitoring the US bank situation, particularly regional banks, focus now also shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are pricing close to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike , but some are speculating that the Fed may choose to pause given the turmoil in the banking system. Last week, the ECB still moved forward with a 50 basis point hike.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

3/21/23Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity3.2
3/21/23Existing Home Sales4.20m4.00m
3/21/23Existing Home Sales MoM5.00%-0.70%
3/22/23MBA Mortgage Applications6.50%
3/22/23FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.00%4.75%
3/22/23FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.75%4.50%
3/22/23Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.90%4.65%
3/23/23Current Account Balance-$213.3b-$217.1b
3/23/23Initial Jobless Claims200k192k
3/23/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.23
3/23/23Continuing Claims1691k1684k
3/23/23New Home Sales650k670k
3/23/23New Home Sales MoM-3.00%7.20%
3/23/23Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-20
3/24/23Durable Goods Orders0.80%-4.50%
3/24/23Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.80%
3/24/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.30%0.80%
3/24/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%1.10%
3/24/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI4747.3
3/24/23S&P Global US Services PMI50.350.6
3/24/23S&P Global US Composite PMI50.1
3/24/23Revisions: Wholesale Inventories
3/24/23Kansas City Fed Services Activity1
3/27/23Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-13.5

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