All eyes are focused on the FOMC decision this afternoon as US Treasury yields are trading slightly lower this morning and equities unchanged on low volumes. Currently, the decision is not in doubt as market participants expect the rate will be unaltered. After the reversal in January to a more “patient” approach, many participants will be paying close attention any changes in the FOMC forecast. Last December, the Summary of Economic Projections showed two rate hikes in 2019. In addition, it is not certain that the Committee will provide further details regarding balance sheet reduction in either the official releases or the press conference.
In other news, it is being reported that China is pushing back against US demands on intellectual property policies until they receive assurances that tariffs on their exports will be lifted. Negotiators have scheduled additional meetings in both Beijing and Washington in hopes to close a deal by late April.
Chris EckhoffAssociate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 03/18/19 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 63 | 62 | 62 | — |
| 03/19/19 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | -0.20% | -0.60% | -0.50% |
| 03/19/19 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.80% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.80% | 0.80% | — |
| 03/20/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.60% | 2.30% | — |
| 03/20/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 03/20/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.25% | — |
| 03/20/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 03/21/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 4.8 | — | -4.1 | — |
| 03/21/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 229k | — |
| 03/21/19 | Continuing Claims | 1770k | — | 1776k | — |
| 03/21/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.8 | — |
| 03/21/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 54.5 | — |
| 03/21/19 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 03/22/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.4 | — | 53 | — |
| 03/22/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.5 | — | 56 | — |
| 03/22/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.5 | — |
| 03/22/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 03/22/19 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -1.00% | — |
| 03/22/19 | Existing Home Sales | 5.10m | — | 4.94m | — |
| 03/22/19 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 3.20% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 03/22/19 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$227.0b | — | -$215.2b | — |