Treasury prices drifted lower overnight on light volumes ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today following yesterday’s tech-led 1.5% decline (Facebook/Cambridge Analytica scandal). Amid the anxiety in equity markets, credit spreads are now 20 basis points wider since early February, albeit from post-crisis tights/lows. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang promised that the government will take efforts to protect the intellectual property of foreign investors during a speech overnight. The comments come at a time when the Trump administration is threatening as much as $60 billion of new tariffs on Chinese products. The markets remain heavily focused on tomorrow’s FOMC decision, and while a rate hike is considered a done deal, there is less consensus on the “dots” for 2018 and 2019. New Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at an increase in the FOMC’s forecasted rate hikes for 2018 from 3 to 4, and futures and forward-rate agreements are effectively priced fully for three hikes in 2018 as it stands today.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
03/21/2018MBA Mortgage Applications0.90%
03/21/2018Current Account Balance-$125.0b-$100.6b
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales5.40m5.38m
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.40%-3.20%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.50%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.25%
03/22/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k226k
03/22/2018Continuing Claims1873k1879k
03/22/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
03/22/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.5
03/22/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.2
03/22/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.555.3
03/22/2018Markit US Services PMI5655.9
03/22/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.8
03/22/2018Leading Index0.50%1.00%
03/22/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1717
03/23/2018Durable Goods Orders1.60%-3.60%
03/23/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.30%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%-0.30%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.10%
03/23/2018New Home Sales624k593k
03/23/2018New Home Sales MoM5.20%-7.80%
03/23/2018Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
03/26/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.12
03/26/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity37.2
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index204.45
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.64%
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.30%
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.23
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.27%
03/27/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2128
03/27/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence130.5130.8
03/27/2018Conf. Board Present Situation162.4
03/27/2018Conf. Board Expectations109.7