March 21, 2023 Headlines

Risk sentiment is improved to start the day, with regional bank stocks rallying in pre-market trading. The 2-year Treasury yield is up 17 basis points (bps) to start the day (4.15%), and S&P 500 futures are up 84 bps as of 8:58 am ET. There are a few stories supporting the rally in regional banks today. Firstly, JPMorgan is reportedly working on a new plan to aid First Republic Bank that would involve converting the recent $30 billion deposit infusion by JPM and other large banks into some form of equity position. Secondly, Federal authorities are said to be studying various ways to temporarily expand deposit insurance coverage, which currently requires Congressional approval. Lastly, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to reaffirm a commitment to stem any contagion facing smaller banks during a speech before the American Bankers Association. First Republic’s stock is up 27% ahead of the open, and other regional lenders (Western Alliance, PacWest, etc.) are also trading better.  Fed fund futures now imply an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike tomorrow, up from 60% at the end of last week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

3/21/23Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-12.83.2
3/21/23Existing Home Sales4.20m4.00m
3/21/23Existing Home Sales MoM5.00%-0.70%
3/22/23MBA Mortgage Applications6.50%
3/22/23FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.00%4.75%
3/22/23FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.75%4.50%
3/22/23Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.90%4.65%
3/23/23Initial Jobless Claims198k192k
3/23/23Continuing Claims1691k1684k
3/23/23Current Account Balance-$213.3b-$217.1b
3/23/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.23
3/23/23New Home Sales650k670k
3/23/23New Home Sales MoM-3.00%7.20%
3/23/23Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-20
3/24/23Durable Goods Orders0.50%-4.50%
3/24/23Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.80%
3/24/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.20%0.80%
3/24/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%1.10%
3/24/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI4747.3
3/24/23S&P Global US Services PMI50.350.6
3/24/23S&P Global US Composite PMI49.550.1
3/24/23Revisions: Wholesale Inventories
3/24/23Kansas City Fed Services Activity1
3/27/23Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-13.5
3/28/23Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.40%
3/28/23Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.0b-$91.5b
3/28/23Retail Inventories MoM0.30%
3/28/23FHFA House Price Index MoM-0.10%
3/28/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.51%
3/28/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.65%
3/28/23S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.76%
3/28/23Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
3/28/23Conf. Board Consumer Confidence101.8102.9
3/28/23Conf. Board Present Situation152.8
3/28/23Conf. Board Expectations69.7
3/28/23Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-16
3/28/23Richmond Fed Business Conditions-6
3/28/23Dallas Fed Services Activity-9.3

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