Risk sentiment is improved to start the day, with regional bank stocks rallying in pre-market trading. The 2-year Treasury yield is up 17 basis points (bps) to start the day (4.15%), and S&P 500 futures are up 84 bps as of 8:58 am ET. There are a few stories supporting the rally in regional banks today. Firstly, JPMorgan is reportedly working on a new plan to aid First Republic Bank that would involve converting the recent $30 billion deposit infusion by JPM and other large banks into some form of equity position. Secondly, Federal authorities are said to be studying various ways to temporarily expand deposit insurance coverage, which currently requires Congressional approval. Lastly, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to reaffirm a commitment to stem any contagion facing smaller banks during a speech before the American Bankers Association. First Republic’s stock is up 27% ahead of the open, and other regional lenders (Western Alliance, PacWest, etc.) are also trading better. Fed fund futures now imply an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike tomorrow, up from 60% at the end of last week.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/21/23 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | -12.8 | 3.2 | — |
| 3/21/23 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.00m | — |
| 3/21/23 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 5.00% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 3/22/23 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 6.50% | — |
| 3/22/23 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.00% | — | 4.75% | — |
| 3/22/23 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.75% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/22/23 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.90% | — | 4.65% | — |
| 3/23/23 | Initial Jobless Claims | 198k | — | 192k | — |
| 3/23/23 | Continuing Claims | 1691k | — | 1684k | — |
| 3/23/23 | Current Account Balance | -$213.3b | — | -$217.1b | — |
| 3/23/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | — | 0.23 | — |
| 3/23/23 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 670k | — |
| 3/23/23 | New Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | — | 7.20% | — |
| 3/23/23 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -2 | — | 0 | — |
| 3/24/23 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.50% | — | -4.50% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 50.3 | — | 50.6 | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 49.5 | — | 50.1 | — |
| 3/24/23 | Revisions: Wholesale Inventories | ||||
| 3/24/23 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 1 | — |
| 3/27/23 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -13.5 | — |
| 3/28/23 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 3/28/23 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$90.0b | — | -$91.5b | — |
| 3/28/23 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/28/23 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/28/23 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.51% | — |
| 3/28/23 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.65% | — |
| 3/28/23 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 5.76% | — |
| 3/28/23 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 3/28/23 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 101.8 | — | 102.9 | — |
| 3/28/23 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 152.8 | — |
| 3/28/23 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 69.7 | — |
| 3/28/23 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -16 | — |
| 3/28/23 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -6 | — |
| 3/28/23 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -9.3 | — |
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