It was a quiet overnight session for Treasuries with Japan closed for holiday and the pending FOMC decision this afternoon. European equities and S&P 500 futures are modestly lower. The U.K.’s jobless rate fell to 4.3% in January, the lowest since 1975, and the Trump administration is expected to announce new tariffs against China as soon as tomorrow (but likely less severe than initially threatened). Regarding the latter, a Wall Street Journal article today says China is preparing to retaliate to such tariffs with countermeasures, including restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports. The official statement from today’s FOMC meeting will be released at 2pm EDT, followed shortly thereafter by the release of the updated SEP and Powell press conference. As noted earlier this week, much of the market’s focus will be on the Fed forecasts for 2018 and 2019 rate hikes, as well as the tone from the new Fed Chair.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 03/21/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.10% | 0.90% |
| 03/21/2018 | Current Account Balance | -$125.0b | -$128.2b | -$100.6b |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.40m | — | 5.38m |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | -3.20% |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.50% |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.25% |
| 03/22/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 226k |
| 03/22/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1879k |
| 03/22/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 54.5 |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.2 |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | — | 55.3 |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 56 | — | 55.9 |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.8 |
| 03/22/2018 | Leading Index | 0.50% | — | 1.00% |
| 03/22/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | — | 17 |
| 03/23/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.60% | — | -3.60% |
| 03/23/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | -0.30% |
| 03/23/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.90% | — | -0.30% |
| 03/23/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 03/23/2018 | New Home Sales | 622k | — | 593k |
| 03/23/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.80% | — | -7.80% |
| 03/23/2018 | Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization | |||
| 03/26/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.12 |
| 03/26/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 33 | — | 37.2 |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | — | 204.45 |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.60% | — | 0.64% |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 6.30% |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 196.23 |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.27% |
| 03/27/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 21 | — | 28 |
| 03/27/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 130.5 | — | 130.8 |
| 03/27/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 162.4 |
| 03/27/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 109.7 |
| 03/28/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.10% |
| 03/28/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.8b | — | -$74.4b |
| 03/28/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.80% |
| 03/28/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.60% | — | 2.50% |
| 03/28/2018 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 3.80% |
| 03/28/2018 | GDP Price Index | 2.30% | — | 2.30% |
| 03/28/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.80% |
| 03/28/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | — | — | 1.90% |
| 03/28/2018 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 2.00% | — | -4.70% |
| 03/28/2018 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -1.70% |