It was a quiet overnight session for Treasuries with Japan closed for holiday and the pending FOMC decision this afternoon. European equities and S&P 500 futures are modestly lower. The U.K.’s jobless rate fell to 4.3% in January, the lowest since 1975, and the Trump administration is expected to announce new tariffs against China as soon as tomorrow (but likely less severe than initially threatened). Regarding the latter, a Wall Street Journal article today says China is preparing to retaliate to such tariffs with countermeasures, including restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports. The official statement from today’s FOMC meeting will be released at 2pm EDT, followed shortly thereafter by the release of the updated SEP and Powell press conference. As noted earlier this week, much of the market’s focus will be on the Fed forecasts for 2018 and 2019 rate hikes, as well as the tone from the new Fed Chair.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
03/21/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.10%0.90%
03/21/2018Current Account Balance-$125.0b-$128.2b-$100.6b
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales5.40m5.38m
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.40%-3.20%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.50%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.25%
03/22/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k226k
03/22/2018Continuing Claims1870k1879k
03/22/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
03/22/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.5
03/22/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.2
03/22/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.555.3
03/22/2018Markit US Services PMI5655.9
03/22/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.8
03/22/2018Leading Index0.50%1.00%
03/22/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1717
03/23/2018Durable Goods Orders1.60%-3.60%
03/23/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.30%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%-0.30%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.10%
03/23/2018New Home Sales622k593k
03/23/2018New Home Sales MoM4.80%-7.80%
03/23/2018Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
03/26/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.12
03/26/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3337.2
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index204.45
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.64%
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.30%
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.23
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.27%
03/27/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2128
03/27/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence130.5130.8
03/27/2018Conf. Board Present Situation162.4
03/27/2018Conf. Board Expectations109.7
03/28/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.10%
03/28/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.8b-$74.4b
03/28/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%
03/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%2.50%
03/28/2018Personal Consumption3.80%
03/28/2018GDP Price Index2.30%2.30%
03/28/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.80%
03/28/2018Core PCE QoQ1.90%
03/28/2018Pending Home Sales MoM2.00%-4.70%
03/28/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.70%