The US Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as the threat of extended lockdowns in Europe and potential for the European Union to ban vaccine exports to the United Kingdom drove the risk-off tone. The Treasury market has been a focal point for market participants in recent weeks given the sharp steepening of the curve. This week, 180bln in 2, 5, and 7-year auctions will drop additional supply on the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has reiterated that the central bank will provide support to the economy “for as long as it takes” but recent inflation concerns have added doubt to how long the bank can continue an accommodative policy stance. There are five Federal reserve speakers scheduled to speak later today over a range of topics including LIBOR transition.
Chris Eckhoff
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/22/2021 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.72 | -1.09 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
3/22/2021 | Existing Home Sales | 6.49m | 6.22m | 6.69m | 6.66m |
3/22/2021 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | -6.60% | 0.60% | 0.20% |
3/23/2021 | Current Account Balance | -$188.3b | — | -$178.5b | — |
3/23/2021 | New Home Sales | 870k | — | 923k | — |
3/23/2021 | New Home Sales MoM | -5.70% | — | 4.30% | — |
3/23/2021 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 16 | — | 14 | — |
3/24/2021 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.20% | — |
3/24/2021 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.60% | — | 3.40% | — |
3/24/2021 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 1.30% | — |
3/24/2021 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
3/24/2021 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -1.00% | — | 1.80% | — |
3/24/2021 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 59.5 | — | 58.6 | — |
3/24/2021 | Markit US Services PMI | 60.1 | — | 59.8 | — |
3/24/2021 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 59.5 | — |
3/24/2021 | Revisions: Wholesale inventories | ||||
3/25/2021 | Initial Jobless Claims | 730k | — | 770k | — |
3/25/2021 | Continuing Claims | 4000k | — | 4124k | — |
3/25/2021 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
3/25/2021 | Personal Consumption | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
3/25/2021 | GDP Price Index | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
3/25/2021 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
3/25/2021 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 48.6 | — |
3/25/2021 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 26 | — | 24 | — |
3/26/2021 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$85.8b | — | -$83.7b | — |
3/26/2021 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | — | 1.30% | — |
3/26/2021 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | -0.60% | — |
3/26/2021 | Personal Income | -7.20% | — | 10.00% | — |
3/26/2021 | Personal Spending | -0.80% | — | 2.40% | — |
3/26/2021 | Real Personal Spending | -1.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
3/26/2021 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
3/26/2021 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
3/26/2021 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
3/26/2021 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
3/26/2021 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 83.6 | — | 83 | — |
3/26/2021 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 93 | — | 91.5 | — |
3/26/2021 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 77.5 | — |
3/26/2021 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% | — |
3/26/2021 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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