March 22, 2021 Headlines

The US Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as the threat of extended lockdowns in Europe and potential for the European Union to ban vaccine exports to the United Kingdom drove the risk-off tone. The Treasury market has been a focal point for market participants in recent weeks given the sharp steepening of the curve. This week, 180bln in 2, 5, and 7-year auctions will drop additional supply on the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has reiterated that the central bank will provide support to the economy “for as long as it takes” but recent inflation concerns have added doubt to how long the bank can continue an accommodative policy stance. There are five Federal reserve speakers scheduled to speak later today over a range of topics including LIBOR transition.

Chris Eckhoff
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/22/2021Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.72-1.090.660.75
3/22/2021Existing Home Sales6.49m6.22m6.69m6.66m
3/22/2021Existing Home Sales MoM-3.00%-6.60%0.60%0.20%
3/23/2021Current Account Balance-$188.3b—-$178.5b—
3/23/2021New Home Sales870k—923k—
3/23/2021New Home Sales MoM-5.70%—4.30%—
3/23/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index16—14—
3/24/2021MBA Mortgage Applications——-2.20%—
3/24/2021Durable Goods Orders0.60%—3.40%—
3/24/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.50%—1.30%—
3/24/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%—0.40%—
3/24/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.00%—1.80%—
3/24/2021Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.5—58.6—
3/24/2021Markit US Services PMI60.1—59.8—
3/24/2021Markit US Composite PMI——59.5—
3/24/2021Revisions: Wholesale inventories
3/25/2021Initial Jobless Claims730k—770k—
3/25/2021Continuing Claims4000k—4124k—
3/25/2021GDP Annualized QoQ4.10%—4.10%—
3/25/2021Personal Consumption2.40%—2.40%—
3/25/2021GDP Price Index2.10%—2.10%—
3/25/2021Core PCE QoQ1.40%—1.40%—
3/25/2021Langer Consumer Comfort——48.6—
3/25/2021Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity26—24—
3/26/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.8b—-$83.7b—
3/26/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%—1.30%—
3/26/2021Retail Inventories MoM0.70%—-0.60%—
3/26/2021Personal Income-7.20%—10.00%—
3/26/2021Personal Spending-0.80%—2.40%—
3/26/2021Real Personal Spending-1.00%—2.00%—
3/26/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
3/26/2021PCE Deflator YoY1.60%—1.50%—
3/26/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%—0.30%—
3/26/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY1.50%—1.50%—
3/26/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment83.6—83—
3/26/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions93—91.5—
3/26/2021U. of Mich. Expectations——77.5—
3/26/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——3.10%—
3/26/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.70%—

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