The Fed continues to dig deeper into its war chest in an effort to ease market conditions. The QE program for Treasury and agency MBS no longer has an amount tied to it, with the central bank now committed to buy securities in “the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning.” The Fed will also now include agency CMBS as part of its MBS purchases, which is certainly needed given the significant spread widening that occurred in that sector last week. The Fed is also launching additional credit facilities to support corporate, municipal, and asset-backed bonds. This is about as close as it gets to a “shock and awe” campaign from a monetary policy perspective, and the Fed also said it expects to soon announce the establishment of a Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to small-and-medium size businesses.
Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher at the moment, but agency MBS spreads are tightening relative to rates, which is a positive signal given the very volatile and sloppy pricing action last week. All eyes are now on Congress, which struggled yesterday to come to terms with a fiscal stimulus package (currently expected to be $2 trillion). Both sides will hopefully come to an agreement early this week.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/23/2020 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.35 | 0.16 | -0.25 | -0.33 |
3/24/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 43 | — | 50.7 | — |
3/24/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 42 | — | 49.4 | — |
3/24/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 49.6 | — |
3/24/2020 | Revisions: Wholesale Inventories | ||||
3/24/2020 | New Home Sales | 750k | — | 764k | — |
3/24/2020 | New Home Sales MoM | -1.80% | — | 7.90% | — |
3/24/2020 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -15 | — | -2 | — |
3/25/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -8.40% | — |
3/25/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
3/25/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
3/25/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.40% | — | 1.10% | — |
3/25/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | 1.00% | — |
3/25/2020 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
3/26/2020 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$63.5b | — | -$65.5b | -$65.9b |
3/26/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
3/26/2020 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
3/26/2020 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
3/26/2020 | Personal Consumption | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
3/26/2020 | GDP Price Index | 1.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
3/26/2020 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
3/26/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1400k | — | 281k | — |
3/26/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1782k | — | 1701k | — |
3/26/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63 | — |
3/26/2020 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -10 | — | 5 | — |
3/27/2020 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
3/27/2020 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
3/27/2020 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.60% | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 89.5 | — | 95.9 | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.5 | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 85.3 | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.