Treasuries this morning are opening slightly lower with the curve ~1bp steeper, rebounding from the ~6bp rally we had yesterday on the back of trade war fears. Equity futures have stabilized (S&P futures flat) after China announced tariffs on $3bln in US imports, a modest response relative to tariffs on $50bln in Chinese imports. While markets are currently calm, President Trump just announced that he may consider a veto of the $1.3 trillion spending bill that won final passage in the house. This reverses his administration’s previous statements and raises the possibility of a government shutdown. US government funding is set to expire at midnight so Trump acting on his threat would almost guarantee the trigger of the third partial shutdown this year.
Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 03/21/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 16-Mar | — | -1.10% | 0.90% | — |
| 03/21/2018 | Current Account Balance | 4Q | -$125.0b | -$128.2b | -$100.6b | -$101.5b |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales | Feb | 5.40m | 5.54m | 5.38m | — |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | Feb | 0.40% | 3.00% | -3.20% | — |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 21-Mar | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.50% | — |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 21-Mar | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.25% | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 17-Mar | 225k | 229k | 226k | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Continuing Claims | 10-Mar | 1870k | 1828k | 1879k | 1885k |
| 03/22/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | Jan | 0.40% | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | Mar | — | 56 | 54.5 | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 18-Mar | — | 56.8 | 56.2 | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Mar P | 55.5 | 55.7 | 55.3 | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | Mar P | 56 | 54.1 | 55.9 | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | Mar P | — | 54.3 | 55.8 | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Leading Index | Feb | 0.50% | 0.60% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
| 03/22/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | Mar | 17 | 17 | 17 | — |
| 03/23/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | Feb P | 1.60% | 3.10% | -3.60% | -3.50% |
| 03/23/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | Feb P | 0.50% | 1.20% | -0.30% | -0.20% |
| 03/23/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Feb P | 0.90% | 1.80% | -0.30% | -0.40% |
| 03/23/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Feb P | 0.50% | 1.40% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 03/23/2018 | New Home Sales | Feb | 620k | — | 593k | — |
| 03/23/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | Feb | 4.60% | — | -7.80% | — |
| 03/23/2018 | Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization | |||||
| 03/26/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | Feb | — | — | 0.12 | — |
| 03/26/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | Mar | 33.5 | — | 37.2 | — |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | Jan | — | — | 204.45 | — |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | Jan | 0.60% | — | 0.64% | — |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | Jan | 6.10% | — | 6.30% | — |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | Jan | — | — | 196.23 | — |
| 03/27/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | Jan | — | — | 6.27% | — |
| 03/27/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | Mar | 22 | — | 28 | — |
| 03/27/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | Mar | 131 | — | 130.8 | — |
| 03/27/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | Mar | — | — | 162.4 | — |
| 03/27/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | Mar | — | — | 109.7 | — |
| 03/28/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 23-Mar | — | — | -1.10% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | Feb | -$74.0b | — | -$74.4b | -$75.3b |
| 03/28/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Feb P | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4Q T | 2.70% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | Personal Consumption | 4Q T | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | GDP Price Index | 4Q T | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | Feb | — | — | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 03/28/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | 4Q T | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | Pending Home Sales MoM | Feb | 2.00% | — | -4.70% | — |
| 03/28/2018 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | Feb | — | — | -1.70% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Revisions: Initial Jobless Claims | |||||
| 03/29/2018 | Personal Income | Feb | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Personal Spending | Feb | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Real Personal Spending | Feb | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | PCE Deflator MoM | Feb | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | PCE Deflator YoY | Feb | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | PCE Core MoM | Feb | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | PCE Core YoY | Feb | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 24-Mar | 230k | — | 229k | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Continuing Claims | 17-Mar | — | — | 1828k | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | Mar | 62 | — | 61.9 | — |
| 03/29/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 25-Mar | — | — | 56.8 | — |
| 03/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Mar F | 102 | — | 102 | — |
| 03/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Mar F | — | — | 122.8 | — |
| 03/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Mar F | — | — | 88.6 | — |
| 03/29/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Mar F | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 03/29/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Mar F | — | — | 2.50% | — |