Treasuries this morning are opening slightly lower with the curve ~1bp steeper, rebounding from the ~6bp rally we had yesterday on the back of trade war fears. Equity futures have stabilized (S&P futures flat) after China announced tariffs on $3bln in US imports, a modest response relative to tariffs on $50bln in Chinese imports. While markets are currently calm, President Trump just announced that he may consider a veto of the $1.3 trillion spending bill that won final passage in the house. This reverses his administration’s previous statements and raises the possibility of a government shutdown. US government funding is set to expire at midnight so Trump acting on his threat would almost guarantee the trigger of the third partial shutdown this year.

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
03/21/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 16-Mar -1.10% 0.90%
03/21/2018 Current Account Balance 4Q -$125.0b -$128.2b -$100.6b -$101.5b
03/21/2018 Existing Home Sales Feb 5.40m 5.54m 5.38m
03/21/2018 Existing Home Sales MoM Feb 0.40% 3.00% -3.20%
03/21/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 21-Mar 1.75% 1.75% 1.50%
03/21/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 21-Mar 1.50% 1.50% 1.25%
03/22/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 17-Mar 225k 229k 226k
03/22/2018 Continuing Claims 10-Mar 1870k 1828k 1879k 1885k
03/22/2018 FHFA House Price Index MoM Jan 0.40% 0.80% 0.30% 0.40%
03/22/2018 Bloomberg Economic Expectations Mar 56 54.5
03/22/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 18-Mar 56.8 56.2
03/22/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar P 55.5 55.7 55.3
03/22/2018 Markit US Services PMI Mar P 56 54.1 55.9
03/22/2018 Markit US Composite PMI Mar P 54.3 55.8
03/22/2018 Leading Index Feb 0.50% 0.60% 1.00% 0.80%
03/22/2018 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Mar 17 17 17
03/23/2018 Durable Goods Orders Feb P 1.60% 3.10% -3.60% -3.50%
03/23/2018 Durables Ex Transportation Feb P 0.50% 1.20% -0.30% -0.20%
03/23/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Feb P 0.90% 1.80% -0.30% -0.40%
03/23/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Feb P 0.50% 1.40% -0.10% 0.10%
03/23/2018 New Home Sales Feb 620k 593k
03/23/2018 New Home Sales MoM Feb 4.60% -7.80%
03/23/2018 Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
03/26/2018 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Feb 0.12
03/26/2018 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Mar 33.5 37.2
03/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Jan 204.45
03/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Jan 0.60% 0.64%
03/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Jan 6.10% 6.30%
03/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Jan 196.23
03/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Jan 6.27%
03/27/2018 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar 22 28
03/27/2018 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Mar 131 130.8
03/27/2018 Conf. Board Present Situation Mar 162.4
03/27/2018 Conf. Board Expectations Mar 109.7
03/28/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 23-Mar -1.10%
03/28/2018 Advance Goods Trade Balance Feb -$74.0b -$74.4b -$75.3b
03/28/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM Feb P 0.80%
03/28/2018 GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.70% 2.50%
03/28/2018 Personal Consumption 4Q T 3.80%
03/28/2018 GDP Price Index 4Q T 2.30% 2.30%
03/28/2018 Retail Inventories MoM Feb 0.80% 0.70%
03/28/2018 Core PCE QoQ 4Q T 1.90%
03/28/2018 Pending Home Sales MoM Feb 2.00% -4.70%
03/28/2018 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Feb -1.70%
03/29/2018 Revisions: Initial Jobless Claims
03/29/2018 Personal Income Feb 0.40% 0.40%
03/29/2018 Personal Spending Feb 0.20% 0.20%
03/29/2018 Real Personal Spending Feb 0.10% -0.10%
03/29/2018 PCE Deflator MoM Feb 0.20% 0.40%
03/29/2018 PCE Deflator YoY Feb 1.70% 1.70%
03/29/2018 PCE Core MoM Feb 0.20% 0.30%
03/29/2018 PCE Core YoY Feb 1.60% 1.50%
03/29/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 24-Mar 230k 229k
03/29/2018 Continuing Claims 17-Mar 1828k
03/29/2018 Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar 62 61.9
03/29/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 25-Mar 56.8
03/29/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar F 102 102
03/29/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Mar F 122.8
03/29/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations Mar F 88.6
03/29/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Mar F 2.90%
03/29/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Mar F 2.50%