Treasuries this morning are opening slightly lower with the curve ~1bp steeper, rebounding from the ~6bp rally we had yesterday on the back of trade war fears. Equity futures have stabilized (S&P futures flat) after China announced tariffs on $3bln in US imports, a modest response relative to tariffs on $50bln in Chinese imports. While markets are currently calm, President Trump just announced that he may consider a veto of the $1.3 trillion spending bill that won final passage in the house. This reverses his administration’s previous statements and raises the possibility of a government shutdown. US government funding is set to expire at midnight so Trump acting on his threat would almost guarantee the trigger of the third partial shutdown this year.

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
03/21/2018MBA Mortgage Applications16-Mar-1.10%0.90%
03/21/2018Current Account Balance4Q-$125.0b-$128.2b-$100.6b-$101.5b
03/21/2018Existing Home SalesFeb5.40m5.54m5.38m
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales MoMFeb0.40%3.00%-3.20%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)21-Mar1.75%1.75%1.50%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)21-Mar1.50%1.50%1.25%
03/22/2018Initial Jobless Claims17-Mar225k229k226k
03/22/2018Continuing Claims10-Mar1870k1828k1879k1885k
03/22/2018FHFA House Price Index MoMJan0.40%0.80%0.30%0.40%
03/22/2018Bloomberg Economic ExpectationsMar5654.5
03/22/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort18-Mar56.856.2
03/22/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMIMar P55.555.755.3
03/22/2018Markit US Services PMIMar P5654.155.9
03/22/2018Markit US Composite PMIMar P54.355.8
03/22/2018Leading IndexFeb0.50%0.60%1.00%0.80%
03/22/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. ActivityMar171717
03/23/2018Durable Goods OrdersFeb P1.60%3.10%-3.60%-3.50%
03/23/2018Durables Ex TransportationFeb P0.50%1.20%-0.30%-0.20%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirFeb P0.90%1.80%-0.30%-0.40%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirFeb P0.50%1.40%-0.10%0.10%
03/23/2018New Home SalesFeb620k593k
03/23/2018New Home Sales MoMFeb4.60%-7.80%
03/23/2018Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
03/26/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexFeb0.12
03/26/2018Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityMar33.537.2
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA IndexJan204.45
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SAJan0.60%0.64%
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSAJan6.10%6.30%
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA IndexJan196.23
03/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSAJan6.27%
03/27/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexMar2228
03/27/2018Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceMar131130.8
03/27/2018Conf. Board Present SituationMar162.4
03/27/2018Conf. Board ExpectationsMar109.7
03/28/2018MBA Mortgage Applications23-Mar-1.10%
03/28/2018Advance Goods Trade BalanceFeb-$74.0b-$74.4b-$75.3b
03/28/2018Wholesale Inventories MoMFeb P0.80%
03/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ4Q T2.70%2.50%
03/28/2018Personal Consumption4Q T3.80%
03/28/2018GDP Price Index4Q T2.30%2.30%
03/28/2018Retail Inventories MoMFeb0.80%0.70%
03/28/2018Core PCE QoQ4Q T1.90%
03/28/2018Pending Home Sales MoMFeb2.00%-4.70%
03/28/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoYFeb-1.70%
03/29/2018Revisions: Initial Jobless Claims
03/29/2018Personal IncomeFeb0.40%0.40%
03/29/2018Personal SpendingFeb0.20%0.20%
03/29/2018Real Personal SpendingFeb0.10%-0.10%
03/29/2018PCE Deflator MoMFeb0.20%0.40%
03/29/2018PCE Deflator YoYFeb1.70%1.70%
03/29/2018PCE Core MoMFeb0.20%0.30%
03/29/2018PCE Core YoYFeb1.60%1.50%
03/29/2018Initial Jobless Claims24-Mar230k229k
03/29/2018Continuing Claims17-Mar1828k
03/29/2018Chicago Purchasing ManagerMar6261.9
03/29/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort25-Mar56.8
03/29/2018U. of Mich. SentimentMar F102102
03/29/2018U. of Mich. Current ConditionsMar F122.8
03/29/2018U. of Mich. ExpectationsMar F88.6
03/29/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationMar F2.90%
03/29/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationMar F2.50%