March 24, 2020 Headlines

Risk markets are opening better today, with general credit spreads firming and U.S. equity futures up 5% ahead of the open. Treasury yields are 2-7 bps higher, and the curve is modestly steeper.  Agency MBS is tightening relatives to rates for the second day in a row as the Fed commits to buy those securities on an unlimited basis to smooth market functionality. Congress continues to debate the fiscal stimulus package, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has introduced a counterproposal to the Senate package that adds up to $2.5 trillion. Eurozone preliminary PMI data for March was even uglier than expected, with the services survey plunging 24 points to 28.4 (39.5 expected). U.S. data will be released later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/23/2020Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.350.16-0.25-0.33
3/24/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——63—
3/24/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI43.5—50.7—
3/24/2020Markit US Services PMI42—49.4—
3/24/2020Markit US Composite PMI——49.6—
3/24/2020Revisions: Wholesale Inventories
3/24/2020New Home Sales750k—764k—
3/24/2020New Home Sales MoM-1.80%—7.90%—
3/24/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-13—-2—
3/25/2020MBA Mortgage Applications——-8.40%—
3/25/2020Durable Goods Orders-1.00%—-0.20%—
3/25/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.40%—0.80%—
3/25/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.40%—1.10%—
3/25/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%—1.00%—
3/25/2020FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%—0.60%—
3/26/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$63.4b—-$65.5b-$65.9b
3/26/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%—-0.40%—
3/26/2020Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%—0.00%—
3/26/2020GDP Annualized QoQ2.10%—2.10%—
3/26/2020Personal Consumption1.70%—1.70%—
3/26/2020GDP Price Index1.30%—1.30%—
3/26/2020Core PCE QoQ1.20%—1.20%—
3/26/2020Initial Jobless Claims1500k—281k—
3/26/2020Continuing Claims1791k—1701k—
3/26/2020Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-10—5—
3/27/2020Personal Income0.40%—0.60%—
3/27/2020Personal Spending0.20%—0.20%—
3/27/2020Real Personal Spending0.20%—0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.10%—0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.70%—1.70%—
3/27/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%—0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%—1.60%—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment90—95.9—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions106—112.5—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Expectations77—85.3—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.30%—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.30%—

 

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