Risk markets are opening better today, with general credit spreads firming and U.S. equity futures up 5% ahead of the open. Treasury yields are 2-7 bps higher, and the curve is modestly steeper. Agency MBS is tightening relatives to rates for the second day in a row as the Fed commits to buy those securities on an unlimited basis to smooth market functionality. Congress continues to debate the fiscal stimulus package, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has introduced a counterproposal to the Senate package that adds up to $2.5 trillion. Eurozone preliminary PMI data for March was even uglier than expected, with the services survey plunging 24 points to 28.4 (39.5 expected). U.S. data will be released later this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/23/2020 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.35 | 0.16 | -0.25 | -0.33 |
3/24/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63 | — |
3/24/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 43.5 | — | 50.7 | — |
3/24/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 42 | — | 49.4 | — |
3/24/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 49.6 | — |
3/24/2020 | Revisions: Wholesale Inventories | ||||
3/24/2020 | New Home Sales | 750k | — | 764k | — |
3/24/2020 | New Home Sales MoM | -1.80% | — | 7.90% | — |
3/24/2020 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -13 | — | -2 | — |
3/25/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -8.40% | — |
3/25/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
3/25/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
3/25/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.40% | — | 1.10% | — |
3/25/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | 1.00% | — |
3/25/2020 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
3/26/2020 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$63.4b | — | -$65.5b | -$65.9b |
3/26/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
3/26/2020 | Retail Inventories MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
3/26/2020 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
3/26/2020 | Personal Consumption | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
3/26/2020 | GDP Price Index | 1.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
3/26/2020 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
3/26/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1500k | — | 281k | — |
3/26/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1791k | — | 1701k | — |
3/26/2020 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -10 | — | 5 | — |
3/27/2020 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
3/27/2020 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
3/27/2020 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/27/2020 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.60% | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 90 | — | 95.9 | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 106 | — | 112.5 | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 77 | — | 85.3 | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
3/27/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
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