March 24, 2020 Headlines

Risk markets are opening better today, with general credit spreads firming and U.S. equity futures up 5% ahead of the open. Treasury yields are 2-7 bps higher, and the curve is modestly steeper. Agency MBS is tightening relatives to rates for the second day in a row as the Fed commits to buy those securities on an unlimited basis to smooth market functionality. Congress continues to debate the fiscal stimulus package, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has introduced a counterproposal to the Senate package that adds up to $2.5 trillion. Eurozone preliminary PMI data for March was even uglier than expected, with the services survey plunging 24 points to 28.4 (39.5 expected). U.S. data will be released later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
3/23/2020	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	-0.35	0.16	-0.25	-0.33
3/24/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63	—
3/24/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	43.5	—	50.7	—
3/24/2020	Markit US Services PMI	42	—	49.4	—
3/24/2020	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	49.6	—
3/24/2020	Revisions: Wholesale Inventories
3/24/2020	New Home Sales	750k	—	764k	—
3/24/2020	New Home Sales MoM	-1.80%	—	7.90%	—
3/24/2020	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-13	—	-2	—
3/25/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-8.40%	—
3/25/2020	Durable Goods Orders	-1.00%	—	-0.20%	—
3/25/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.40%	—	0.80%	—
3/25/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	-0.40%	—	1.10%	—
3/25/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-0.20%	—	1.00%	—
3/25/2020	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.40%	—	0.60%	—
3/26/2020	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$63.4b	—	-$65.5b	-$65.9b
3/26/2020	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.40%	—
3/26/2020	Retail Inventories MoM	-0.10%	—	0.00%	—
3/26/2020	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.10%	—	2.10%	—
3/26/2020	Personal Consumption	1.70%	—	1.70%	—
3/26/2020	GDP Price Index	1.30%	—	1.30%	—
3/26/2020	Core PCE QoQ	1.20%	—	1.20%	—
3/26/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	1500k	—	281k	—
3/26/2020	Continuing Claims	1791k	—	1701k	—
3/26/2020	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-10	—	5	—
3/27/2020	Personal Income	0.40%	—	0.60%	—
3/27/2020	Personal Spending	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
3/27/2020	Real Personal Spending	0.20%	—	0.10%	—
3/27/2020	PCE Deflator MoM	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
3/27/2020	PCE Deflator YoY	1.70%	—	1.70%	—
3/27/2020	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	—
3/27/2020	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.70%	—	1.60%	—
3/27/2020	U. of Mich. Sentiment	90	—	95.9	—
3/27/2020	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	106	—	112.5	—
3/27/2020	U. of Mich. Expectations	77	—	85.3	—
3/27/2020	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—
3/27/2020	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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