March 24, 2021 Headlines

After initially falling overnight in the Asian trading session, Treasury yields have reversed higher following the release of better than expected PMI data from Europe. The preliminary Eurozone composite PMI reading for March, which includes both manufacturing and services, moved back into expansion territory at 52.5, an 8-month high. However, it’s worth noting that these surveys took place before the latest Covid restrictions were imposed last week. To that end, German chancellor Merkel and 16 state leaders are reportedly holding an unannounced meeting this morning to discuss the broad-based criticism of the recent lockdown extension. U.S. durable goods orders were weaker than expected in February, with headline orders falling 1.1% versus expectations of a 0.5% increase. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for capital expenditures (“core” orders), fell 0.8% from the prior month (+0.5% expected). The weakness was perhaps attributable to the poor winter weather conditions across much of the country, and the overall Q1 cap ex figure is still expected to be robust.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.72-1.090.660.75
03/22/21Existing Home Sales6.49m6.22m6.69m6.66m
03/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-3.00%-6.60%0.60%0.20%
03/23/21Current Account Balance-$188.0b-$188.5b-$178.5b-$180.9b
03/23/21New Home Sales870k775k923k948k
03/23/21New Home Sales MoM-5.70%-18.20%4.30%3.20%
03/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index161714
03/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-2.20%
03/24/21Durable Goods Orders0.50%-1.10%3.40%3.50%
03/24/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.90%1.30%1.60%
03/24/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.80%0.40%0.60%
03/24/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.00%-1.00%1.80%1.90%
03/24/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.558.6
03/24/21Markit US Services PMI60.159.8
03/24/21Markit US Composite PMI59.5
03/24/21Revisions: Wholesale inventories
03/25/21Initial Jobless Claims730k770k
03/25/21Continuing Claims4000k4124k
03/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.10%4.10%
03/25/21Personal Consumption2.40%2.40%
03/25/21GDP Price Index2.10%2.10%
03/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%
03/25/21Langer Consumer Comfort48.6
03/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2624
03/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.8b-$83.7b
03/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.30%
03/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.70%-0.60%
03/26/21Personal Income-7.20%10.00%
03/26/21Personal Spending-0.80%2.40%
03/26/21Real Personal Spending-1.00%2.00%
03/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
03/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
03/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%
03/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.50%1.50%
03/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment83.683
03/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions9391.5
03/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.5
03/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%
03/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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