March 24, 2021 Headlines

After initially falling overnight in the Asian trading session, Treasury yields have reversed higher following the release of better than expected PMI data from Europe. The preliminary Eurozone composite PMI reading for March, which includes both manufacturing and services, moved back into expansion territory at 52.5, an 8-month high. However, it’s worth noting that these surveys took place before the latest Covid restrictions were imposed last week. To that end, German chancellor Merkel and 16 state leaders are reportedly holding an unannounced meeting this morning to discuss the broad-based criticism of the recent lockdown extension. U.S. durable goods orders were weaker than expected in February, with headline orders falling 1.1% versus expectations of a 0.5% increase. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for capital expenditures (“core” orders), fell 0.8% from the prior month (+0.5% expected). The weakness was perhaps attributable to the poor winter weather conditions across much of the country, and the overall Q1 cap ex figure is still expected to be robust.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.72-1.090.660.75
03/22/21Existing Home Sales6.49m6.22m6.69m6.66m
03/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-3.00%-6.60%0.60%0.20%
03/23/21Current Account Balance-$188.0b-$188.5b-$178.5b-$180.9b
03/23/21New Home Sales870k775k923k948k
03/23/21New Home Sales MoM-5.70%-18.20%4.30%3.20%
03/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index161714
03/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-2.20%
03/24/21Durable Goods Orders0.50%-1.10%3.40%3.50%
03/24/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.90%1.30%1.60%
03/24/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.80%0.40%0.60%
03/24/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.00%-1.00%1.80%1.90%
03/24/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.558.6
03/24/21Markit US Services PMI60.159.8
03/24/21Markit US Composite PMI59.5
03/24/21Revisions: Wholesale inventories
03/25/21Initial Jobless Claims730k770k
03/25/21Continuing Claims4000k4124k
03/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.10%4.10%
03/25/21Personal Consumption2.40%2.40%
03/25/21GDP Price Index2.10%2.10%
03/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%
03/25/21Langer Consumer Comfort48.6
03/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2624
03/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.8b-$83.7b
03/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.30%
03/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.70%-0.60%
03/26/21Personal Income-7.20%10.00%
03/26/21Personal Spending-0.80%2.40%
03/26/21Real Personal Spending-1.00%2.00%
03/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
03/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
03/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%
03/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.50%1.50%
03/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment83.683
03/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions9391.5
03/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.5
03/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%
03/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.