March 24, 2021 Headlines

After initially falling overnight in the Asian trading session, Treasury yields have reversed higher following the release of better than expected PMI data from Europe. The preliminary Eurozone composite PMI reading for March, which includes both manufacturing and services, moved back into expansion territory at 52.5, an 8-month high. However, it’s worth noting that these surveys took place before the latest Covid restrictions were imposed last week. To that end, German chancellor Merkel and 16 state leaders are reportedly holding an unannounced meeting this morning to discuss the broad-based criticism of the recent lockdown extension. U.S. durable goods orders were weaker than expected in February, with headline orders falling 1.1% versus expectations of a 0.5% increase. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for capital expenditures (“core” orders), fell 0.8% from the prior month (+0.5% expected). The weakness was perhaps attributable to the poor winter weather conditions across much of the country, and the overall Q1 cap ex figure is still expected to be robust.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/22/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.72 -1.09 0.66 0.75
03/22/21 Existing Home Sales 6.49m 6.22m 6.69m 6.66m
03/22/21 Existing Home Sales MoM -3.00% -6.60% 0.60% 0.20%
03/23/21 Current Account Balance -$188.0b -$188.5b -$178.5b -$180.9b
03/23/21 New Home Sales 870k 775k 923k 948k
03/23/21 New Home Sales MoM -5.70% -18.20% 4.30% 3.20%
03/23/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 16 17 14 —
03/24/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.50% -2.20% —
03/24/21 Durable Goods Orders 0.50% -1.10% 3.40% 3.50%
03/24/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% -0.90% 1.30% 1.60%
03/24/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% -0.80% 0.40% 0.60%
03/24/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -1.00% -1.00% 1.80% 1.90%
03/24/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 59.5 — 58.6 —
03/24/21 Markit US Services PMI 60.1 — 59.8 —
03/24/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 59.5 —
03/24/21 Revisions: Wholesale inventories
03/25/21 Initial Jobless Claims 730k — 770k —
03/25/21 Continuing Claims 4000k — 4124k —
03/25/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.10% — 4.10% —
03/25/21 Personal Consumption 2.40% — 2.40% —
03/25/21 GDP Price Index 2.10% — 2.10% —
03/25/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.40% — 1.40% —
03/25/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 48.6 —
03/25/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 26 — 24 —
03/26/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$85.8b — -$83.7b —
03/26/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% — 1.30% —
03/26/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.70% — -0.60% —
03/26/21 Personal Income -7.20% — 10.00% —
03/26/21 Personal Spending -0.80% — 2.40% —
03/26/21 Real Personal Spending -1.00% — 2.00% —
03/26/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
03/26/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.60% — 1.50% —
03/26/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% — 0.30% —
03/26/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.50% — 1.50% —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 83.6 — 83 —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 93 — 91.5 —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 77.5 —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.10% —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

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