March 25, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly lower across the curve ahead of today’s $62 billion 7-year auction. Last month’s auction was historically bad and sent benchmark yields 10 bps higher in a flash immediately thereafter. Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, now at a fresh pandemic low of 684,000 (730,000 expected). The February personal income and spending report will be released tomorrow, and core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 1.5% year-over-year.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/22/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.72 -1.09 0.66 0.75
03/22/21 Existing Home Sales 6.49m 6.22m 6.69m 6.66m
03/22/21 Existing Home Sales MoM -3.00% -6.60% 0.60% 0.20%
03/23/21 Current Account Balance -$188.0b -$188.5b -$178.5b -$180.9b
03/23/21 New Home Sales 870k 775k 923k 948k
03/23/21 New Home Sales MoM -5.70% -18.20% 4.30% 3.20%
03/23/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 16 17 14 —
03/24/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.50% -2.20% —
03/24/21 Durable Goods Orders 0.50% -1.10% 3.40% 3.50%
03/24/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% -0.90% 1.30% 1.60%
03/24/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% -0.80% 0.40% 0.60%
03/24/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -1.00% -1.00% 1.80% 1.90%
03/24/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 59.5 59 58.6 —
03/24/21 Markit US Services PMI 60.1 60 59.8 —
03/24/21 Markit US Composite PMI — 59.1 59.5 —
03/24/21 Revisions: Wholesale inventories
03/25/21 Initial Jobless Claims 730k 684k 770k 781k
03/25/21 Continuing Claims 4000k 3870k 4124k 4134k
03/25/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.10% 4.30% 4.10% —
03/25/21 Personal Consumption 2.40% 2.30% 2.40% —
03/25/21 GDP Price Index 2.10% 2.00% 2.10% —
03/25/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.40% 1.30% 1.40% —
03/25/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 48.6 —
03/25/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 26 — 24 —
03/26/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$85.9b — -$83.7b -$84.6b
03/26/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.80% — -0.60% -0.50%
03/26/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% — 1.30% 1.40%
03/26/21 Personal Income -7.20% — 10.00% —
03/26/21 Personal Spending -0.80% — 2.40% —
03/26/21 Real Personal Spending -1.00% — 2.00% —
03/26/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
03/26/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.60% — 1.50% —
03/26/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% — 0.30% —
03/26/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.50% — 1.50% —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 83.6 — 83 —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 93.1 — 91.5 —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 78.8 — 77.5 —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.10% —
03/26/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

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