March 25, 2022 Headlines

It was a relatively quiet overnight session for Treasuries, but one with healthier two-way flows. Yields are slightly lower and flatter so far this morning, and U.S. equity futures are up 26-40 bps a little more than an hour ahead of the open. Both bonds and equities are also responding positively to a 3-4% decline in oil prices today. There’s seemingly more focus on European growth prospects this morning and whether a recession is on the near horizon given the complications from the war in Ukraine and consequential sanctions against Russia. To that end ECB board member Isabel Schnabel unsurprisingly said the central bank’s asset purchase program would potentially be extended if the Euro zone economy fell into a “deep recession.” On the domestic front, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey data will be released later this morning, and next week’s calendar will be headlined by the March jobs report (Friday) and March PCE data (Thursday).  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/21/22Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.540.510.690.59
03/22/22Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2131
03/23/22MBA Mortgage Applications-8.10%-1.20%
03/23/22New Home Sales810k772k801k788k
03/23/22New Home Sales MoM1.10%-2.00%-4.50%-8.40%
03/24/22Current Account Balance-$218.0b-$217.9b-$214.8b-$219.9b
03/24/22Initial Jobless Claims210k187k214k215k
03/24/22Continuing Claims1400k1350k1419k1417k
03/24/22Durable Goods Orders-0.60%-2.20%1.60%
03/24/22Durables Ex Transportation0.60%-0.60%0.70%0.80%
03/24/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.30%1.00%1.30%
03/24/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%0.50%1.90%2.10%
03/24/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI56.658.557.3
03/24/22S&P Global US Services PMI5658.956.5
03/24/22S&P Global US Composite PMI54.758.555.9
03/24/22Revisions: Wholesale Sales, Inventories
03/24/22Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity263729
03/25/22Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%-5.70%
03/25/22Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.20%-9.10%
03/25/22U. of Mich. Sentiment59.759.7
03/25/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions67.667.8
03/25/22U. of Mich. Expectations54.454.4
03/25/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.40%5.40%
03/25/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%

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