A modest improvement in risk sentiment emerged overnight and is contributing to higher Treasury yields this morning. The Fed said yesterday that temporary limits placed on bank dividends and stock buybacks last summer will end for most banks after June 30. “The banking system continues to be a source of strength, and returning to our normal framework after this year’s stress test will preserve that strength,” said Fed vice chair Randal Quarles. Also contributing to the positive tone this morning is ratcheting down of the vaccine war within Europe. The European Union had threatened to ban vaccine exports to the U.K. earlier this week, but EU leaders are now stepping back from those comments.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/22/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.72 | -1.09 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
03/22/21 | Existing Home Sales | 6.49m | 6.22m | 6.69m | 6.66m |
03/22/21 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | -6.60% | 0.60% | 0.20% |
03/23/21 | Current Account Balance | -$188.0b | -$188.5b | -$178.5b | -$180.9b |
03/23/21 | New Home Sales | 870k | 775k | 923k | 948k |
03/23/21 | New Home Sales MoM | -5.70% | -18.20% | 4.30% | 3.20% |
03/23/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 16 | 17 | 14 | — |
03/24/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | -2.20% | — |
03/24/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.50% | -1.10% | 3.40% | 3.50% |
03/24/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | -0.90% | 1.30% | 1.60% |
03/24/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | -0.80% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
03/24/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -1.00% | -1.00% | 1.80% | 1.90% |
03/24/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 59.5 | 59 | 58.6 | — |
03/24/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 60.1 | 60 | 59.8 | — |
03/24/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 59.1 | 59.5 | — |
03/24/21 | Revisions: Wholesale inventories | ||||
03/25/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 730k | 684k | 770k | 781k |
03/25/21 | Continuing Claims | 4000k | 3870k | 4124k | 4134k |
03/25/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.10% | 4.30% | 4.10% | — |
03/25/21 | Personal Consumption | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
03/25/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.10% | 2.00% | 2.10% | — |
03/25/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.40% | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
03/25/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | 49.1 | 48.6 | — |
03/25/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 26 | 26 | 24 | — |
03/26/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$86.0b | -$86.7b | -$83.7b | -$84.6b |
03/26/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.80% | 0.00% | -0.60% | -0.30% |
03/26/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | 0.50% | 1.30% | 1.40% |
03/26/21 | Personal Income | -7.20% | -7.10% | 10.00% | 10.10% |
03/26/21 | Personal Spending | -0.80% | -1.00% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
03/26/21 | Real Personal Spending | -1.00% | -1.20% | 2.00% | 3.00% |
03/26/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
03/26/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.50% | 1.40% |
03/26/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
03/26/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.50% | 1.40% | 1.50% | — |
03/26/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 83.6 | — | 83 | — |
03/26/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 93.1 | — | 91.5 | — |
03/26/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 78.8 | — | 77.5 | — |
03/26/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% | — |
03/26/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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