March 26, 2021 Headlines

A modest improvement in risk sentiment emerged overnight and is contributing to higher Treasury yields this morning.  The Fed said yesterday that temporary limits placed on bank dividends and stock buybacks last summer will end for most banks after June 30. “The banking system continues to be a source of strength, and returning to our normal framework after this year’s stress test will preserve that strength,” said Fed vice chair Randal Quarles. Also contributing to the positive tone this morning is ratcheting down of the vaccine war within Europe. The European Union had threatened to ban vaccine exports to the U.K. earlier this week, but  EU leaders are now stepping back from those comments.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.72-1.090.660.75
03/22/21Existing Home Sales6.49m6.22m6.69m6.66m
03/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-3.00%-6.60%0.60%0.20%
03/23/21Current Account Balance-$188.0b-$188.5b-$178.5b-$180.9b
03/23/21New Home Sales870k775k923k948k
03/23/21New Home Sales MoM-5.70%-18.20%4.30%3.20%
03/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index161714
03/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-2.20%
03/24/21Durable Goods Orders0.50%-1.10%3.40%3.50%
03/24/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.90%1.30%1.60%
03/24/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.80%0.40%0.60%
03/24/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.00%-1.00%1.80%1.90%
03/24/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.55958.6
03/24/21Markit US Services PMI60.16059.8
03/24/21Markit US Composite PMI59.159.5
03/24/21Revisions: Wholesale inventories
03/25/21Initial Jobless Claims730k684k770k781k
03/25/21Continuing Claims4000k3870k4124k4134k
03/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.10%4.30%4.10%
03/25/21Personal Consumption2.40%2.30%2.40%
03/25/21GDP Price Index2.10%2.00%2.10%
03/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.30%1.40%
03/25/21Langer Consumer Comfort49.148.6
03/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity262624
03/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.0b-$86.7b-$83.7b-$84.6b
03/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.80%0.00%-0.60%-0.30%
03/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.50%1.30%1.40%
03/26/21Personal Income-7.20%-7.10%10.00%10.10%
03/26/21Personal Spending-0.80%-1.00%2.40%3.40%
03/26/21Real Personal Spending-1.00%-1.20%2.00%3.00%
03/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%
03/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%1.50%1.40%
03/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.30%0.20%
03/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.50%1.40%1.50%
03/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment83.683
03/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions93.191.5
03/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations78.877.5
03/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%
03/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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