U.S. Treasuries retreated from yesterday’s gains with the yield curve bear flattening as risk assets recovered. The sell-off was initially sparked by comments from Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal Reserve President, that the Fed should consider raising the proportion of short-term Treasury bonds it holds. By increasing the holdings of Treasury bills, it would provide the Fed the flexibility to lengthen the maturity of its balance sheet to combat future economic slowdowns. He is the third Fed policymaker to weigh in on the composition of the balance sheet in the last two days. Today, the economic calendar is heavy on residential data including Housing Starts and Building Permits.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 03/25/19 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.38 | -0.29 | -0.43 |
| 03/25/19 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 8.9 | 8.3 | 13.1 |
| 03/26/19 | Housing Starts | 1210k | — | 1230k |
| 03/26/19 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.60% | — | 18.60% |
| 03/26/19 | Building Permits | 1305k | — | 1345k |
| 03/26/19 | Building Permits MoM | -0.90% | — | 1.40% |
| 03/26/19 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.19% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.80% | — | 4.18% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 212.79 | — | 212.96 |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.72% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 205.35 |
| 03/26/19 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 10 | — | 16 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.5 | — | 131.4 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 173.5 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 103.4 |
| 03/27/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% |
| 03/27/19 | Trade Balance | -$57.0b | — | -$59.8b |
| 03/27/19 | Current Account Balance | -$130.4b | — | -$124.8b |
| 03/27/19 | Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization | |||
| 03/28/19 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | — | 2.60% |
| 03/28/19 | Personal Consumption | 2.60% | — | 2.80% |
| 03/28/19 | GDP Price Index | 1.80% | — | 1.80% |
| 03/28/19 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | — | 1.70% |
| 03/28/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 221k |
| 03/28/19 | Continuing Claims | 1778k | — | 1750k |
| 03/28/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.5 |
| 03/28/19 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.30% | — | 4.60% |
| 03/28/19 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -3.00% | — | -3.20% |
| 03/28/19 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | 1 |
| 03/29/19 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 03/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.50% |
| 03/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.60% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.70% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.90% |
| 03/29/19 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 64.7 |
| 03/29/19 | New Home Sales | 620k | — | 607k |
| 03/29/19 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.10% | — | -6.90% |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.8 | — | 97.8 |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.2 |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.2 |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |