U.S. Treasuries retreated from yesterday’s gains with the yield curve bear flattening as risk assets recovered. The sell-off was initially sparked by comments from Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal Reserve President, that the Fed should consider raising the proportion of short-term Treasury bonds it holds. By increasing the holdings of Treasury bills, it would provide the Fed the flexibility to lengthen the maturity of its balance sheet to combat future economic slowdowns. He is the third Fed policymaker to weigh in on the composition of the balance sheet in the last two days. Today, the economic calendar is heavy on residential data including Housing Starts and Building Permits.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

 

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior
03/25/19 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.38 -0.29 -0.43
03/25/19 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 8.9 8.3 13.1
03/26/19 Housing Starts 1210k 1230k
03/26/19 Housing Starts MoM -1.60% 18.60%
03/26/19 Building Permits 1305k 1345k
03/26/19 Building Permits MoM -0.90% 1.40%
03/26/19 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.30%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.30% 0.19%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.80% 4.18%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 212.79 212.96
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.72%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 205.35
03/26/19 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 10 16
03/26/19 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 132.5 131.4
03/26/19 Conf. Board Present Situation 173.5
03/26/19 Conf. Board Expectations 103.4
03/27/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.60%
03/27/19 Trade Balance -$57.0b -$59.8b
03/27/19 Current Account Balance -$130.4b -$124.8b
03/27/19 Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
03/28/19 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.30% 2.60%
03/28/19 Personal Consumption 2.60% 2.80%
03/28/19 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.80%
03/28/19 Core PCE QoQ 1.70% 1.70%
03/28/19 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 221k
03/28/19 Continuing Claims 1778k 1750k
03/28/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.5
03/28/19 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.30% 4.60%
03/28/19 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -3.00% -3.20%
03/28/19 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 0 1
03/29/19 Personal Income 0.30% -0.10%
03/29/19 Personal Spending 0.30% -0.50%
03/29/19 Real Personal Spending 0.30% -0.60%
03/29/19 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% 0.10%
03/29/19 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.70%
03/29/19 PCE Core MoM 0.20% 0.20%
03/29/19 PCE Core YoY 1.90% 1.90%
03/29/19 MNI Chicago PMI 61 64.7
03/29/19 New Home Sales 620k 607k
03/29/19 New Home Sales MoM 2.10% -6.90%
03/29/19 U. of Mich. Sentiment 97.8 97.8
03/29/19 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 111.2
03/29/19 U. of Mich. Expectations 89.2
03/29/19 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.40%
03/29/19 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%