March 27, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning, with intermediate and long-end yields 8-10 bps lower. S&P 500 futures are down 2.8% ahead of the open following the first 3-day rally since mid-February as COVID-19 deaths continue to rise globally.  The stimulus package is expected to be passed by the House today, and questions are now emerging on how quickly federal and state authorities will be able to get aid to individuals and businesses under severe economic stress. Fixed-income markets continue to heal from last week’s extreme liquidity drain. Agency MBS spreads are now tighter than levels from a month ago for most coupons/terms, and Agency CMBS spreads have tightened by more than 50 bps in the last two days in anticipation of the Fed’s new purchase program. Investment-grade credit spreads in both corporate and securitized markets continue to improve as well.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/27/2020Personal Income0.40%0.60%0.60%—
3/27/2020Personal Spending0.20%0.20%0.20%—
3/27/2020Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%1.80%
3/27/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
3/27/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%1.60%1.70%
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment90—95.9—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions106—112.5—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Expectations77—85.3—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.30%—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.30%—

 

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