March 27, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning, with intermediate and long-end yields 8-10 bps lower. S&P 500 futures are down 2.8% ahead of the open following the first 3-day rally since mid-February as COVID-19 deaths continue to rise globally.  The stimulus package is expected to be passed by the House today, and questions are now emerging on how quickly federal and state authorities will be able to get aid to individuals and businesses under severe economic stress. Fixed-income markets continue to heal from last week’s extreme liquidity drain. Agency MBS spreads are now tighter than levels from a month ago for most coupons/terms, and Agency CMBS spreads have tightened by more than 50 bps in the last two days in anticipation of the Fed’s new purchase program. Investment-grade credit spreads in both corporate and securitized markets continue to improve as well.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/27/2020Personal Income0.40%0.60%0.60%—
3/27/2020Personal Spending0.20%0.20%0.20%—
3/27/2020Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%—
3/27/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%1.80%
3/27/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
3/27/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%1.60%1.70%
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment90—95.9—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions106—112.5—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. Expectations77—85.3—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.30%—
3/27/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.30%—

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.