U.S. Treasury prices are higher this morning following renewed concerns over a pessimistic global outlook and dovish comments from Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank (ECB) President. In China, February’s industrial profits dropped -14% compared to -1.9% in January. Additionally, U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to resume high-level trade talks on Thursday as both sides remain determined to avoid an escalation of the trade war. During the European session, the ECB altered its growth forecast to 1.1%, which is down from December’s projection of 1.7%. Draghi also provided dovish comments regarding forward rate guidance and mentioned that economic risks were bias to the downside. The U.S. economic calendar is quiet today with market participants focused on the GDP release expected tomorrow.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 03/25/19 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.38 | -0.29 | -0.43 |
| 03/25/19 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 8.9 | 8.3 | 13.1 |
| 03/26/19 | Housing Starts | 1210k | — | 1230k |
| 03/26/19 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.60% | — | 18.60% |
| 03/26/19 | Building Permits | 1305k | — | 1345k |
| 03/26/19 | Building Permits MoM | -0.90% | — | 1.40% |
| 03/26/19 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.19% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.80% | — | 4.18% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 212.79 | — | 212.96 |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.72% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 205.35 |
| 03/26/19 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 10 | — | 16 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.5 | — | 131.4 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 173.5 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 103.4 |
| 03/27/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% |
| 03/27/19 | Trade Balance | -$57.0b | — | -$59.8b |
| 03/27/19 | Current Account Balance | -$130.4b | — | -$124.8b |
| 03/27/19 | Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization | |||
| 03/28/19 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | — | 2.60% |
| 03/28/19 | Personal Consumption | 2.60% | — | 2.80% |
| 03/28/19 | GDP Price Index | 1.80% | — | 1.80% |
| 03/28/19 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | — | 1.70% |
| 03/28/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 221k |
| 03/28/19 | Continuing Claims | 1778k | — | 1750k |
| 03/28/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.5 |
| 03/28/19 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.30% | — | 4.60% |
| 03/28/19 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -3.00% | — | -3.20% |
| 03/28/19 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | 1 |
| 03/29/19 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 03/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.50% |
| 03/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.60% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.70% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.90% |
| 03/29/19 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 64.7 |
| 03/29/19 | New Home Sales | 620k | — | 607k |
| 03/29/19 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.10% | — | -6.90% |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.8 | — | 97.8 |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.2 |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.2 |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |