U.S. Treasury prices are higher this morning following renewed concerns over a pessimistic global outlook and dovish comments from Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank (ECB) President. In China, February’s industrial profits dropped -14% compared to -1.9% in January. Additionally, U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to resume high-level trade talks on Thursday as both sides remain determined to avoid an escalation of the trade war. During the European session, the ECB altered its growth forecast to 1.1%, which is down from December’s projection of 1.7%. Draghi also provided dovish comments regarding forward rate guidance and mentioned that economic risks were bias to the downside. The U.S. economic calendar is quiet today with market participants focused on the GDP release expected tomorrow.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group


03/25/19Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.38-0.29-0.43
03/25/19Dallas Fed Manf. Activity8.98.313.1
03/26/19Housing Starts1210k1230k
03/26/19Housing Starts MoM-1.60%18.60%
03/26/19Building Permits1305k1345k
03/26/19Building Permits MoM-0.90%1.40%
03/26/19FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.19%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.80%4.18%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index212.79212.96
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.72%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35
03/26/19Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1016
03/26/19Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.5131.4
03/26/19Conf. Board Present Situation173.5
03/26/19Conf. Board Expectations103.4
03/27/19MBA Mortgage Applications1.60%
03/27/19Trade Balance-$57.0b-$59.8b
03/27/19Current Account Balance-$130.4b-$124.8b
03/27/19Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
03/28/19GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%2.60%
03/28/19Personal Consumption2.60%2.80%
03/28/19GDP Price Index1.80%1.80%
03/28/19Core PCE QoQ1.70%1.70%
03/28/19Initial Jobless Claims220k221k
03/28/19Continuing Claims1778k1750k
03/28/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.5
03/28/19Pending Home Sales MoM-0.30%4.60%
03/28/19Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%-3.20%
03/28/19Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity01
03/29/19Personal Income0.30%-0.10%
03/29/19Personal Spending0.30%-0.50%
03/29/19Real Personal Spending0.30%-0.60%
03/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.10%
03/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.70%
03/29/19PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
03/29/19PCE Core YoY1.90%1.90%
03/29/19MNI Chicago PMI6164.7
03/29/19New Home Sales620k607k
03/29/19New Home Sales MoM2.10%-6.90%
03/29/19U. of Mich. Sentiment97.897.8
03/29/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.2
03/29/19U. of Mich. Expectations89.2
03/29/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%
03/29/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%