Weakness in tech stocks spilled over to the broader market yesterday and the selloff continued in the overnight session. The risk off tone pushed the long end rates down and flattened the curve by about 8 bps. Equity markets and oil traded in sympathy with one another, with crude down 1.1% while European and Asian stock markets sold off roughly 1-2%. MBS ended yesterday 3.5 ticks wider yesterday in response to the rate rally. This morning saw the release of the final Q4 GDP number which came in at 2.9% vs 2.7% expected and 0.4% higher than the previous release. The upward revision was driven by increases in personal consumption and fixed investment.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/26Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.150.880.120.02
03/26Dallas Fed Manf. Activity33.521.437.2
03/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index205.1204.45204.48
03/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.75%0.64%0.67%
03/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.15%6.40%6.30%6.31%
03/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.31196.23196.22
03/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.18%6.27%6.28%
03/27Richmond Fed Manufact. Index221528
03/27Conf. Board Consumer Confidence131127.7130.8130
03/27Conf. Board Present Situation159.9162.4161.2
03/27Conf. Board Expectations106.2109.7109.2
03/28MBA Mortgage Applications4.80%-1.10%
03/28GDP Annualized QoQ2.70%2.90%2.50%
03/28Personal Consumption3.80%4.00%3.80%
03/28GDP Price Index2.30%2.30%2.30%
03/28Core PCE QoQ1.90%1.90%1.90%
03/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$74.4b-$75.4b-$74.4b-$75.3b
03/28Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.80%0.70%
03/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%1.10%0.80%1.00%
03/28Pending Home Sales MoM2.00%3.10%-4.70%-5.00%
03/28Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.40%-1.70%-1.90%
03/29Revisions: Initial Jobless Claims
03/29Personal Income0.40%0.40%
03/29Personal Spending0.20%0.20%
03/29Real Personal Spending0.10%-0.10%
03/29PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.40%
03/29PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.70%
03/29PCE Core MoM0.20%0.30%
03/29PCE Core YoY1.60%1.50%
03/29Initial Jobless Claims230k229k
03/29Continuing Claims1870k1828k
03/29Chicago Purchasing Manager6261.9
03/29Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.8
03/29U. of Mich. Sentiment102102
03/29U. of Mich. Current Conditions122.8
03/29U. of Mich. Expectations88.6
03/29U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
03/29U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%