The week-long rally in Treasuries has halted this morning, with yields modestly higher across the curve. However, yields in the 2-year to 10-year part of the curve are down approximately 25 bps since March 19. There weren’t any major macro headlines overnight, although a Reuters article suggested more progress in U.S./China negotiations, which is contributing to the pause in the U.S. bond rally. The article states that China has made “unprecedented” proposals to curb the forced technology transfer for U.S. companies doing business in China, which is an issue at the forefront of U.S. concerns. The White House released a widely anticipated memo yesterday regarding GSE reform, which would ultimately focus on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private market. However, the memo fell short of providing specific details (described by some as a “plan for a plan”), which suggests any actual reforms are a long way away and largely in line with market expectations.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/25/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.38-0.29-0.43-0.25
3/25/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity8.98.313.1
3/26/2019Housing Starts1210k1162k1230k1273k
3/26/2019Housing Starts MoM-1.60%-8.70%18.60%11.70%
3/26/2019Building Permits1305k1296k1345k1317k
3/26/2019Building Permits MoM-0.90%-1.60%1.40%-0.70%
3/26/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.60%0.30%
3/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.11%0.19%0.17%
3/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.80%3.58%4.18%4.14%
3/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index212.79212.41212.96212.88
3/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.26%4.72%4.60%
3/26/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index204.71205.35205.07
3/26/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index101016
3/26/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.5124.1131.4
3/26/2019Conf. Board Present Situation160.6173.5172.8
3/26/2019Conf. Board Expectations99.8103.4103.8
3/27/2019MBA Mortgage Applications8.90%1.60%
3/27/2019Trade Balance-$57.0b-$51.1b-$59.8b-$59.9b
3/27/2019Current Account Balance-$130.0b-$134.4b-$124.8b-$126.6b
3/27/2019Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
3/28/2019Revisions: Jobless Claims
3/28/2019GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%2.20%2.60%
3/28/2019Personal Consumption2.60%2.50%2.80%
3/28/2019GDP Price Index1.80%1.70%1.80%
3/28/2019Core PCE QoQ1.70%1.80%1.70%
3/28/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k211k221k216k
3/28/2019Continuing Claims1778k1756k1750k1743k
3/28/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.5
3/28/2019Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%4.60%
3/28/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%-3.20%
3/28/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity01
3/29/2019Personal Income0.30%-0.10%
3/29/2019Personal Spending0.30%-0.50%
3/29/2019Real Personal Spending0.30%-0.60%
3/29/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.10%
3/29/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.70%
3/29/2019PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
3/29/2019PCE Core YoY1.90%1.90%
3/29/2019MNI Chicago PMI6164.7
3/29/2019New Home Sales620k607k
3/29/2019New Home Sales MoM2.10%-6.90%
3/29/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment97.897.8
3/29/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.2
3/29/2019U. of Mich. Expectations89.2
3/29/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%
3/29/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%