The week-long rally in Treasuries has halted this morning, with yields modestly higher across the curve. However, yields in the 2-year to 10-year part of the curve are down approximately 25 bps since March 19. There weren’t any major macro headlines overnight, although a Reuters article suggested more progress in U.S./China negotiations, which is contributing to the pause in the U.S. bond rally. The article states that China has made “unprecedented” proposals to curb the forced technology transfer for U.S. companies doing business in China, which is an issue at the forefront of U.S. concerns. The White House released a widely anticipated memo yesterday regarding GSE reform, which would ultimately focus on returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private market. However, the memo fell short of providing specific details (described by some as a “plan for a plan”), which suggests any actual reforms are a long way away and largely in line with market expectations.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/25/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.38 | -0.29 | -0.43 | -0.25 |
| 3/25/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 8.9 | 8.3 | 13.1 | — |
| 3/26/2019 | Housing Starts | 1210k | 1162k | 1230k | 1273k |
| 3/26/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.60% | -8.70% | 18.60% | 11.70% |
| 3/26/2019 | Building Permits | 1305k | 1296k | 1345k | 1317k |
| 3/26/2019 | Building Permits MoM | -0.90% | -1.60% | 1.40% | -0.70% |
| 3/26/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.30% | — |
| 3/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.17% |
| 3/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.80% | 3.58% | 4.18% | 4.14% |
| 3/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 212.79 | 212.41 | 212.96 | 212.88 |
| 3/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.26% | 4.72% | 4.60% |
| 3/26/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 204.71 | 205.35 | 205.07 |
| 3/26/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 10 | 10 | 16 | — |
| 3/26/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.5 | 124.1 | 131.4 | — |
| 3/26/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 160.6 | 173.5 | 172.8 |
| 3/26/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 99.8 | 103.4 | 103.8 |
| 3/27/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 8.90% | 1.60% | — |
| 3/27/2019 | Trade Balance | -$57.0b | -$51.1b | -$59.8b | -$59.9b |
| 3/27/2019 | Current Account Balance | -$130.0b | -$134.4b | -$124.8b | -$126.6b |
| 3/27/2019 | Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization | ||||
| 3/28/2019 | Revisions: Jobless Claims | ||||
| 3/28/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.60% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Personal Consumption | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.80% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | GDP Price Index | 1.80% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.70% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 211k | 221k | 216k |
| 3/28/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1778k | 1756k | 1750k | 1743k |
| 3/28/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.5 | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | 4.60% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -3.00% | — | -3.20% | — |
| 3/28/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| 3/29/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 64.7 | — |
| 3/29/2019 | New Home Sales | 620k | — | 607k | — |
| 3/29/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.10% | — | -6.90% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.8 | — | 97.8 | — |
| 3/29/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.2 | — |
| 3/29/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.2 | — |
| 3/29/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 3/29/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |