Chinese stocks soared overnight with the Shanghai Composite up 3.2% on positive reports that trade negotiators have been working line-by-line through an agreement that could potentially be put in front of both leaders. In the US, the gains have been more muted with the S&P 500 set to open +43% and US Treasury yields pushed 3bps higher across the curve.
US fourth quarter economic growth decelerated more than initially reported as the Commerce Department showed on Thursday that GDP grew at an annualized 2.2% compared to the original 2.6% reading. The biggest driver, consumer spending, was revised downward to 2.5% which missed analyst projections. Looking forward to next week, the retail sales release will be in focus as another soft print would confirm a slowing three-month trend.
Chris EckhoffAssociate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 03/25/19 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.38 | -0.29 | -0.43 | -0.25 |
| 03/25/19 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 8.9 | 8.3 | 13.1 | — |
| 03/26/19 | Housing Starts | 1210k | 1162k | 1230k | 1273k |
| 03/26/19 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.60% | -8.70% | 18.60% | 11.70% |
| 03/26/19 | Building Permits | 1305k | 1296k | 1345k | 1317k |
| 03/26/19 | Building Permits MoM | -0.90% | -1.60% | 1.40% | -0.70% |
| 03/26/19 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.30% | — |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.17% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.80% | 3.58% | 4.18% | 4.14% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 212.79 | 212.41 | 212.96 | 212.88 |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.26% | 4.72% | 4.60% |
| 03/26/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 204.71 | 205.35 | 205.07 |
| 03/26/19 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 10 | 10 | 16 | — |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.5 | 124.1 | 131.4 | — |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 160.6 | 173.5 | 172.8 |
| 03/26/19 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 99.8 | 103.4 | 103.8 |
| 03/27/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 8.90% | 1.60% | — |
| 03/27/19 | Trade Balance | -$57.0b | -$51.1b | -$59.8b | -$59.9b |
| 03/27/19 | Current Account Balance | -$130.0b | -$134.4b | -$124.8b | -$126.6b |
| 03/27/19 | Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization | ||||
| 03/28/19 | Revisions: Jobless Claims | ||||
| 03/28/19 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.60% | — |
| 03/28/19 | Personal Consumption | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.80% | — |
| 03/28/19 | GDP Price Index | 1.80% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
| 03/28/19 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.70% | — |
| 03/28/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 211k | 221k | 216k |
| 03/28/19 | Continuing Claims | 1778k | 1756k | 1750k | 1743k |
| 03/28/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 60 | 61.5 | — |
| 03/28/19 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | -1.00% | 4.60% | 4.30% |
| 03/28/19 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -3.00% | -5.00% | -3.20% | -3.30% |
| 03/28/19 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | 10 | 1 | — |
| 03/29/19 | Personal Income | 0.30% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 03/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.10% | -0.50% | -0.60% |
| 03/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.10% | -0.60% | — |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.70% | 1.80% |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 03/29/19 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | 1.80% | 1.90% | 2.00% |
| 03/29/19 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 64.7 | — |
| 03/29/19 | New Home Sales | 620k | — | 607k | — |
| 03/29/19 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.10% | — | -6.90% | — |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.8 | — | 97.8 | — |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.2 | — |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.2 | — |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 03/29/19 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |