Chinese stocks soared overnight with the Shanghai Composite up 3.2% on positive reports that trade negotiators have been working line-by-line through an agreement that could potentially be put in front of both leaders. In the US, the gains have been more muted with the S&P 500 set to open +43% and US Treasury yields pushed 3bps higher across the curve.

US fourth quarter economic growth decelerated more than initially reported as the Commerce Department showed on Thursday that GDP grew at an annualized 2.2% compared to the original 2.6% reading. The biggest driver, consumer spending, was revised downward to 2.5% which missed analyst projections. Looking forward to next week, the retail sales release will be in focus as another soft print would confirm a slowing three-month trend.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/25/19 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.38 -0.29 -0.43 -0.25
03/25/19 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 8.9 8.3 13.1
03/26/19 Housing Starts 1210k 1162k 1230k 1273k
03/26/19 Housing Starts MoM -1.60% -8.70% 18.60% 11.70%
03/26/19 Building Permits 1305k 1296k 1345k 1317k
03/26/19 Building Permits MoM -0.90% -1.60% 1.40% -0.70%
03/26/19 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.60% 0.30%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.30% 0.11% 0.19% 0.17%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.80% 3.58% 4.18% 4.14%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 212.79 212.41 212.96 212.88
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.26% 4.72% 4.60%
03/26/19 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 204.71 205.35 205.07
03/26/19 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 10 10 16
03/26/19 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 132.5 124.1 131.4
03/26/19 Conf. Board Present Situation 160.6 173.5 172.8
03/26/19 Conf. Board Expectations 99.8 103.4 103.8
03/27/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 8.90% 1.60%
03/27/19 Trade Balance -$57.0b -$51.1b -$59.8b -$59.9b
03/27/19 Current Account Balance -$130.0b -$134.4b -$124.8b -$126.6b
03/27/19 Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
03/28/19 Revisions: Jobless Claims
03/28/19 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.30% 2.20% 2.60%
03/28/19 Personal Consumption 2.60% 2.50% 2.80%
03/28/19 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.70% 1.80%
03/28/19 Core PCE QoQ 1.70% 1.80% 1.70%
03/28/19 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 211k 221k 216k
03/28/19 Continuing Claims 1778k 1756k 1750k 1743k
03/28/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 60 61.5
03/28/19 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% -1.00% 4.60% 4.30%
03/28/19 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -3.00% -5.00% -3.20% -3.30%
03/28/19 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 0 10 1
03/29/19 Personal Income 0.30% 0.20% -0.10%
03/29/19 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.10% -0.50% -0.60%
03/29/19 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.10% -0.60%
03/29/19 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% -0.10% 0.10%
03/29/19 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.40% 1.70% 1.80%
03/29/19 PCE Core MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
03/29/19 PCE Core YoY 1.90% 1.80% 1.90% 2.00%
03/29/19 MNI Chicago PMI 61 64.7
03/29/19 New Home Sales 620k 607k
03/29/19 New Home Sales MoM 2.10% -6.90%
03/29/19 U. of Mich. Sentiment 97.8 97.8
03/29/19 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 111.2
03/29/19 U. of Mich. Expectations 89.2
03/29/19 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.40%
03/29/19 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%