Chinese stocks soared overnight with the Shanghai Composite up 3.2% on positive reports that trade negotiators have been working line-by-line through an agreement that could potentially be put in front of both leaders. In the US, the gains have been more muted with the S&P 500 set to open +43% and US Treasury yields pushed 3bps higher across the curve.

US fourth quarter economic growth decelerated more than initially reported as the Commerce Department showed on Thursday that GDP grew at an annualized 2.2% compared to the original 2.6% reading. The biggest driver, consumer spending, was revised downward to 2.5% which missed analyst projections. Looking forward to next week, the retail sales release will be in focus as another soft print would confirm a slowing three-month trend.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
03/25/19Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.38-0.29-0.43-0.25
03/25/19Dallas Fed Manf. Activity8.98.313.1
03/26/19Housing Starts1210k1162k1230k1273k
03/26/19Housing Starts MoM-1.60%-8.70%18.60%11.70%
03/26/19Building Permits1305k1296k1345k1317k
03/26/19Building Permits MoM-0.90%-1.60%1.40%-0.70%
03/26/19FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.60%0.30%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.11%0.19%0.17%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.80%3.58%4.18%4.14%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index212.79212.41212.96212.88
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.26%4.72%4.60%
03/26/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index204.71205.35205.07
03/26/19Richmond Fed Manufact. Index101016
03/26/19Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.5124.1131.4
03/26/19Conf. Board Present Situation160.6173.5172.8
03/26/19Conf. Board Expectations99.8103.4103.8
03/27/19MBA Mortgage Applications8.90%1.60%
03/27/19Trade Balance-$57.0b-$51.1b-$59.8b-$59.9b
03/27/19Current Account Balance-$130.0b-$134.4b-$124.8b-$126.6b
03/27/19Revisions: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
03/28/19Revisions: Jobless Claims
03/28/19GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%2.20%2.60%
03/28/19Personal Consumption2.60%2.50%2.80%
03/28/19GDP Price Index1.80%1.70%1.80%
03/28/19Core PCE QoQ1.70%1.80%1.70%
03/28/19Initial Jobless Claims220k211k221k216k
03/28/19Continuing Claims1778k1756k1750k1743k
03/28/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6061.5
03/28/19Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-1.00%4.60%4.30%
03/28/19Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%-5.00%-3.20%-3.30%
03/28/19Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity0101
03/29/19Personal Income0.30%0.20%-0.10%
03/29/19Personal Spending0.30%0.10%-0.50%-0.60%
03/29/19Real Personal Spending0.30%0.10%-0.60%
03/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.00%-0.10%0.10%
03/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.40%1.70%1.80%
03/29/19PCE Core MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
03/29/19PCE Core YoY1.90%1.80%1.90%2.00%
03/29/19MNI Chicago PMI6164.7
03/29/19New Home Sales620k607k
03/29/19New Home Sales MoM2.10%-6.90%
03/29/19U. of Mich. Sentiment97.897.8
03/29/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.2
03/29/19U. of Mich. Expectations89.2
03/29/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%
03/29/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%