March 3, 2021 Headlines

An improved risk tone overnight is driving U.S. equity futures and Treasury yields higher this morning. Long-end yields are up approximately 7 basis points, and the 2-year/10-year spread is steeper by the same amount. The White House’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package is expected to arrive at the Senate today for formal debate. With no Republican support at this point, the Biden administration is focused on maintaining Democratic party unity given that a single defection would sink the bill.  The bond market is eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow for any reaction to last week’s volatility in Treasuries. In his Senate testimony last Tuesday, Powell characterized the sudden rise in Treasury yields as an improved economic outlook, but bond traders are also interested in any attention given to liquidity issues that emerged on Thursday at the peak of last week’s sell off.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 58.5 58.6 58.5 —
03/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 1.70% 1.00% 1.10%
03/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 58.9 60.8 58.7 —
03/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 80 86 82.1 —
03/01/21 ISM New Orders 60 64.8 61.1 —
03/01/21 ISM Employment — 54.4 52.6 —
03/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m 15.67m 16.63m —
03/03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.50% -11.40% —
03/03/21 ADP Employment Change 205k 117k 174k 195k
03/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 58.9 — 58.9 —
03/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 58.8 —
03/03/21 ISM Services Index 58.7 — 58.7 —
03/03/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 17.40% —
03/04/21 Nonfarm Productivity -4.70% — -4.80% —
03/04/21 Unit Labor Costs 6.60% — 6.80% —
03/04/21 Initial Jobless Claims 755k — 730k —
03/04/21 Continuing Claims 4300k — 4419k —
03/04/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 47.3 —
03/04/21 Durable Goods Orders 3.40% — 3.40% —
03/04/21 Factory Orders 2.10% — 1.10% —
03/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.40% — 1.40% —
03/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 1.40% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% — 0.50% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.10% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% — 5.40% —
03/05/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 195k — 49k —
03/05/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -159k —
03/05/21 Change in Private Payrolls 200k — 6k —
03/05/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k — -10k —
03/05/21 Unemployment Rate 6.30% — 6.30% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
03/05/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 — 35 —
03/05/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40% — 61.40% —
03/05/21 Underemployment Rate — — 11.10% —
03/05/21 Trade Balance -$67.5b — -$66.6b —
03/05/21 Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21 Consumer Credit $12.000b — $9.734b —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.