March 3, 2021 Headlines

An improved risk tone overnight is driving U.S. equity futures and Treasury yields higher this morning. Long-end yields are up approximately 7 basis points, and the 2-year/10-year spread is steeper by the same amount. The White House’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package is expected to arrive at the Senate today for formal debate. With no Republican support at this point, the Biden administration is focused on maintaining Democratic party unity given that a single defection would sink the bill.  The bond market is eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow for any reaction to last week’s volatility in Treasuries. In his Senate testimony last Tuesday, Powell characterized the sudden rise in Treasury yields as an improved economic outlook, but bond traders are also interested in any attention given to liquidity issues that emerged on Thursday at the peak of last week’s sell off.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI58.558.658.5
03/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.80%1.70%1.00%1.10%
03/01/21ISM Manufacturing58.960.858.7
03/01/21ISM Prices Paid808682.1
03/01/21ISM New Orders6064.861.1
03/01/21ISM Employment54.452.6
03/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m15.67m16.63m
03/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.50%-11.40%
03/03/21ADP Employment Change205k117k174k195k
03/03/21Markit US Services PMI58.958.9
03/03/21Markit US Composite PMI58.8
03/03/21ISM Services Index58.758.7
03/03/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY17.40%
03/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-4.70%-4.80%
03/04/21Unit Labor Costs6.60%6.80%
03/04/21Initial Jobless Claims755k730k
03/04/21Continuing Claims4300k4419k
03/04/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.3
03/04/21Durable Goods Orders3.40%3.40%
03/04/21Factory Orders2.10%1.10%
03/04/21Durables Ex Transportation1.40%1.40%
03/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans1.40%
03/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.50%
03/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.10%
03/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.30%5.40%
03/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k49k
03/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-159k
03/05/21Change in Private Payrolls200k6k
03/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k-10k
03/05/21Unemployment Rate6.30%6.30%
03/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.20%
03/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.935
03/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%61.40%
03/05/21Underemployment Rate11.10%
03/05/21Trade Balance-$67.5b-$66.6b
03/05/21Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.734b

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