An improved risk tone overnight is driving U.S. equity futures and Treasury yields higher this morning. Long-end yields are up approximately 7 basis points, and the 2-year/10-year spread is steeper by the same amount. The White House’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package is expected to arrive at the Senate today for formal debate. With no Republican support at this point, the Biden administration is focused on maintaining Democratic party unity given that a single defection would sink the bill. The bond market is eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow for any reaction to last week’s volatility in Treasuries. In his Senate testimony last Tuesday, Powell characterized the sudden rise in Treasury yields as an improved economic outlook, but bond traders are also interested in any attention given to liquidity issues that emerged on Thursday at the peak of last week’s sell off.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 58.5 | 58.6 | 58.5 | — |
03/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.80% | 1.70% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
03/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.9 | 60.8 | 58.7 | — |
03/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 80 | 86 | 82.1 | — |
03/01/21 | ISM New Orders | 60 | 64.8 | 61.1 | — |
03/01/21 | ISM Employment | — | 54.4 | 52.6 | — |
03/02/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.00m | 15.67m | 16.63m | — |
03/03/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.50% | -11.40% | — |
03/03/21 | ADP Employment Change | 205k | 117k | 174k | 195k |
03/03/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 58.9 | — | 58.9 | — |
03/03/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 58.8 | — |
03/03/21 | ISM Services Index | 58.7 | — | 58.7 | — |
03/03/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
03/04/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 17.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Nonfarm Productivity | -4.70% | — | -4.80% | — |
03/04/21 | Unit Labor Costs | 6.60% | — | 6.80% | — |
03/04/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 755k | — | 730k | — |
03/04/21 | Continuing Claims | 4300k | — | 4419k | — |
03/04/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 47.3 | — |
03/04/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Factory Orders | 2.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
03/04/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
03/04/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 2.10% | — |
03/05/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.30% | — | 5.40% | — |
03/05/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | — | 49k | — |
03/05/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -159k | — |
03/05/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 200k | — | 6k | — |
03/05/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | — | -10k | — |
03/05/21 | Unemployment Rate | 6.30% | — | 6.30% | — |
03/05/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
03/05/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.9 | — | 35 | — |
03/05/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.40% | — | 61.40% | — |
03/05/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 11.10% | — |
03/05/21 | Trade Balance | -$67.5b | — | -$66.6b | — |
03/05/21 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
03/05/21 | Consumer Credit | $12.000b | — | $9.734b | — |
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