March 3, 2021 Headlines

An improved risk tone overnight is driving U.S. equity futures and Treasury yields higher this morning. Long-end yields are up approximately 7 basis points, and the 2-year/10-year spread is steeper by the same amount. The White House’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package is expected to arrive at the Senate today for formal debate. With no Republican support at this point, the Biden administration is focused on maintaining Democratic party unity given that a single defection would sink the bill.  The bond market is eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow for any reaction to last week’s volatility in Treasuries. In his Senate testimony last Tuesday, Powell characterized the sudden rise in Treasury yields as an improved economic outlook, but bond traders are also interested in any attention given to liquidity issues that emerged on Thursday at the peak of last week’s sell off.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 58.5 58.6 58.5 —
03/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 1.70% 1.00% 1.10%
03/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 58.9 60.8 58.7 —
03/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 80 86 82.1 —
03/01/21 ISM New Orders 60 64.8 61.1 —
03/01/21 ISM Employment — 54.4 52.6 —
03/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m 15.67m 16.63m —
03/03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.50% -11.40% —
03/03/21 ADP Employment Change 205k 117k 174k 195k
03/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 58.9 — 58.9 —
03/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 58.8 —
03/03/21 ISM Services Index 58.7 — 58.7 —
03/03/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 17.40% —
03/04/21 Nonfarm Productivity -4.70% — -4.80% —
03/04/21 Unit Labor Costs 6.60% — 6.80% —
03/04/21 Initial Jobless Claims 755k — 730k —
03/04/21 Continuing Claims 4300k — 4419k —
03/04/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 47.3 —
03/04/21 Durable Goods Orders 3.40% — 3.40% —
03/04/21 Factory Orders 2.10% — 1.10% —
03/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.40% — 1.40% —
03/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 1.40% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% — 0.50% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.10% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% — 5.40% —
03/05/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 195k — 49k —
03/05/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -159k —
03/05/21 Change in Private Payrolls 200k — 6k —
03/05/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k — -10k —
03/05/21 Unemployment Rate 6.30% — 6.30% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
03/05/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 — 35 —
03/05/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40% — 61.40% —
03/05/21 Underemployment Rate — — 11.10% —
03/05/21 Trade Balance -$67.5b — -$66.6b —
03/05/21 Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21 Consumer Credit $12.000b — $9.734b —

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