March 3, 2022 Headlines

Treasury prices are a bit firmer this morning following yesterday’s big sell off. Over the last three trading sessions, the 5-year Treasury yield was down 15 basis points (bps), down 12 bps, and then up 16 bps. That is the definition of whipsaw, and it makes life all the busier for anyone hedging mortgage-related assets with non-stationary durations. Today’s rally in bonds is partly attributable to comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said his country was committed to military action in Ukraine until “the end”. At the same time, he suggested Russia had no intentions to use nuclear weapons. Financial markets also continue to digest testimony from Fed Chair Powell yesterday. He all but confirmed a 25 bps rate hike on March 16, and he said the Fed will act more aggressively (50 bps hikes) if inflation doesn’t subside later this year as they currently expect.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/28/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$99.5b	-$107.6b	-$101.0b	-$100.5b
02/28/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.30%	0.80%	2.20%	2.30%
02/28/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.00%	1.90%	4.40%	4.70%
02/28/22	MNI Chicago PMI	62.3	56.3	65.2	—
02/28/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	4.3	14	2	—
03/01/22	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	57.3	57.5	—
03/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.10%	1.30%	0.20%	0.80%
03/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	58	58.6	57.6	—
03/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	77.5	75.6	76.1	—
03/01/22	ISM New Orders	56.3	61.7	57.9	—
03/01/22	ISM Employment	54.2	52.9	54.5	—
03/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.40m	14.07m	15.04m	—
03/02/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.70%	-13.10%	—
03/02/22	ADP Employment Change	375k	475k	-301k	509k
03/02/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/03/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-55.90%	-76.00%	—
03/03/22	Nonfarm Productivity	6.70%	6.60%	6.60%	—
03/03/22	Unit Labor Costs	0.30%	0.90%	0.30%	—
03/03/22	Initial Jobless Claims	225k	215k	232k	233k
03/03/22	Continuing Claims	1420k	1476k	1476k	1474k
03/03/22	Markit US Services PMI	56.7	—	56.7	—
03/03/22	Markit US Composite PMI	56	—	56	—
03/03/22	ISM Services Index	61.1	—	59.9	—
03/03/22	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	-0.40%	—
03/03/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.10%	—
03/03/22	Durable Goods Orders	1.60%	—	1.60%	—
03/03/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	—	0.70%	—
03/03/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.90%	—
03/03/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.90%	—
03/04/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
03/04/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	420k	—	467k	—
03/04/22	Change in Private Payrolls	398k	—	444k	—
03/04/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	24k	—	13k	—
03/04/22	Unemployment Rate	3.90%	—	4.00%	—
03/04/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
03/04/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.80%	—	5.70%	—
03/04/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.5	—
03/04/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.20%	—	62.20%	—
03/04/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.10%	—

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