March 3, 2022 Headlines

Treasury prices are a bit firmer this morning following yesterday’s big sell off. Over the last three trading sessions, the 5-year Treasury yield was down 15 basis points (bps), down 12 bps, and then up 16 bps. That is the definition of whipsaw, and it makes life all the busier for anyone hedging mortgage-related assets with non-stationary durations. Today’s rally in bonds is partly attributable to comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said his country was committed to military action in Ukraine until “the end”. At the same time, he suggested Russia had no intentions to use nuclear weapons. Financial markets also continue to digest testimony from Fed Chair Powell yesterday. He all but confirmed a 25 bps rate hike on March 16, and he said the Fed will act more aggressively (50 bps hikes) if inflation doesn’t subside later this year as they currently expect.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/28/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$99.5b-$107.6b-$101.0b-$100.5b
02/28/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%0.80%2.20%2.30%
02/28/22Retail Inventories MoM1.00%1.90%4.40%4.70%
02/28/22MNI Chicago PMI62.356.365.2
02/28/22Dallas Fed Manf. Activity4.3142
03/01/22Markit US Manufacturing PMI57.557.357.5
03/01/22Construction Spending MoM0.10%1.30%0.20%0.80%
03/01/22ISM Manufacturing5858.657.6
03/01/22ISM Prices Paid77.575.676.1
03/01/22ISM New Orders56.361.757.9
03/01/22ISM Employment54.252.954.5
03/01/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.40m14.07m15.04m
03/02/22MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%-13.10%
03/02/22ADP Employment Change375k475k-301k509k
03/02/22U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/03/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-55.90%-76.00%
03/03/22Nonfarm Productivity6.70%6.60%6.60%
03/03/22Unit Labor Costs0.30%0.90%0.30%
03/03/22Initial Jobless Claims225k215k232k233k
03/03/22Continuing Claims1420k1476k1476k1474k
03/03/22Markit US Services PMI56.756.7
03/03/22Markit US Composite PMI5656
03/03/22ISM Services Index61.159.9
03/03/22Factory Orders0.70%-0.40%
03/03/22Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
03/03/22Durable Goods Orders1.60%1.60%
03/03/22Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
03/03/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%
03/03/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.90%
03/04/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/04/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls420k467k
03/04/22Change in Private Payrolls398k444k
03/04/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls24k13k
03/04/22Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%
03/04/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.50%0.70%
03/04/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.80%5.70%
03/04/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.634.5
03/04/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.20%62.20%
03/04/22Underemployment Rate7.10%


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