March 30, 2020 Headlines

President Trump announced yesterday that the federal government’s social distancing guidelines would be extended until April 30. Activity in Treasuries overnight was relatively quiet, and long-end yields are 2-3 bps lower this morning with long-end yields. The Treasury curve is flatter this morning, with intermediate and long-end yields 8-10 bps lower. S&P 500 futures were lower overnight but have turned positive this morning (+0.75% currently), and oil prices are down sharply again today, with WTI futures more than 6% lower to $20/barrel. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Congress is already working on a potential phase 4 stimulus bill to offset the negative economic consequences of longer social distancing guidelines, including extending benefits from the phase 3 package and “plugging in likely holes in the hastily assembled bills.” This could include more funds to support struggling state and local government budgets. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also reportedly working on ideas to support mortgage servicers facing financial burdens of payment deferrals mandated in the prior bill.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/30/2020Pending Home Sales MoM-2.00%5.20%
3/30/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY6.00%6.70%
3/30/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-101.2
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.43%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.25%2.85%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218.73
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.75%
3/31/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.59
3/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI4049
3/31/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence110130.7
3/31/2020Conf. Board Expectations107.8
3/31/2020Conf. Board Present Situation165.1
4/1/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-29.40%
4/1/2020ADP Employment Change-150k183k
4/1/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI48.149.2
4/1/2020Construction Spending MoM0.60%1.80%
4/1/2020ISM Manufacturing4550.1
4/1/2020ISM New Orders49.8
4/1/2020ISM Prices Paid41.845.9
4/1/2020ISM Employment46.9
4/1/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales12.25m16.83m
4/2/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY-26.30%
4/2/2020Trade Balance-$40.0b-$45.3b
4/2/2020Initial Jobless Claims3300k3283k
4/2/2020Continuing Claims1803k
4/2/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.7
4/2/2020Factory Orders0.20%-0.50%
4/2/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.10%
4/2/2020Durable Goods Orders1.20%1.20%
4/2/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.60%-0.60%
4/2/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.80%
4/2/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.70%
4/3/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
4/3/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-100k273k
4/3/2020Change in Private Payrolls-111k228k
4/3/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-10k15k
4/3/2020Unemployment Rate3.80%3.50%
4/3/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
4/3/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%
4/3/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.4
4/3/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.30%63.40%
4/3/2020Underemployment Rate7.00%
4/3/2020Markit US Services PMI38.539.1
4/3/2020Markit US Composite PMI40.5
4/3/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index4457.3

 

 

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