March 30, 2021 Headlines

Intermediate and long-end Treasury yields are another 3-5 basis points higher on reports that Biden’s infrastructure plan may cost as much as $4 trillion. President Biden is expected to announce this massive plan tomorrow, which is reported to include $3.5 trillion of tax hikes. According to Washington Post sources, the larger than expected tax hikes are intended to soften the deficit impact and avoid a sharp rise in Treasury yields.

On the economic data front, the U.S. housing market remains hot, but it will be important to see what impact the rise in mortgage rates will have on the recent momentum going forward. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) was up 11.1% year-over-year in January, the biggest such gain since early 2006 and the second consecutive double-digit gain.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/29/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 16.8 28.9 17.2 —
03/30/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.20% 1.00% 1.10% 1.20%
03/30/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.20% 1.20% 1.25% 1.30%
03/30/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 11.20% 11.10% 10.10% 10.17%
03/30/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 10.50% 11.22% 10.37% 10.41%
03/30/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 96.9 — 91.3 —
03/30/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — — 92 —
03/30/21 Conf. Board Expectations — — 90.8 —
03/31/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -2.50% —
03/31/21 ADP Employment Change 550k — 117k —
03/31/21 MNI Chicago PMI 61 — 59.5 —
03/31/21 Pending Home Sales MoM -3.00% — -2.80% —
03/31/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 6.50% — 8.20% —
04/01/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — -39.10% —
04/01/21 Revisions: Initial and Continued Claims
04/01/21 Initial Jobless Claims 678k — 684k —
04/01/21 Continuing Claims 3750k — 3870k —
04/01/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 49.1 —
04/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 59.1 — 59 —
04/01/21 Construction Spending MoM -1.00% — 1.70% —
04/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 61.5 — 60.8 —
04/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 82 — 86 —
04/01/21 ISM New Orders — — 64.8 —
04/01/21 ISM Employment — — 54.4 —
04/01/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.40m — 15.67m —
04/02/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 650k — 379k —
04/02/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — 38k —
04/02/21 Change in Private Payrolls 650k — 465k —
04/02/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 36k — 21k —
04/02/21 Unemployment Rate 6.00% — 6.20% —
04/02/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.10% — 0.20% —
04/02/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.50% — 5.30% —
04/02/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.7 — 34.6 —
04/02/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.50% — 61.40% —
04/02/21 Underemployment Rate — — 11.10% —

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