Intermediate and long-end Treasury yields are another 3-5 basis points higher on reports that Biden’s infrastructure plan may cost as much as $4 trillion. President Biden is expected to announce this massive plan tomorrow, which is reported to include $3.5 trillion of tax hikes. According to Washington Post sources, the larger than expected tax hikes are intended to soften the deficit impact and avoid a sharp rise in Treasury yields.
On the economic data front, the U.S. housing market remains hot, but it will be important to see what impact the rise in mortgage rates will have on the recent momentum going forward. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) was up 11.1% year-over-year in January, the biggest such gain since early 2006 and the second consecutive double-digit gain.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/29/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 16.8 | 28.9 | 17.2 | — |
03/30/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.20% | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.20% |
03/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.20% | 1.20% | 1.25% | 1.30% |
03/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 11.20% | 11.10% | 10.10% | 10.17% |
03/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 10.50% | 11.22% | 10.37% | 10.41% |
03/30/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96.9 | — | 91.3 | — |
03/30/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 92 | — |
03/30/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 90.8 | — |
03/31/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
03/31/21 | ADP Employment Change | 550k | — | 117k | — |
03/31/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 59.5 | — |
03/31/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | — | -2.80% | — |
03/31/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 6.50% | — | 8.20% | — |
04/01/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -39.10% | — |
04/01/21 | Revisions: Initial and Continued Claims | ||||
04/01/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 678k | — | 684k | — |
04/01/21 | Continuing Claims | 3750k | — | 3870k | — |
04/01/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 49.1 | — |
04/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 59.1 | — | 59 | — |
04/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | -1.00% | — | 1.70% | — |
04/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 61.5 | — | 60.8 | — |
04/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 82 | — | 86 | — |
04/01/21 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 64.8 | — |
04/01/21 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.4 | — |
04/01/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.40m | — | 15.67m | — |
04/02/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 650k | — | 379k | — |
04/02/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 38k | — |
04/02/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 650k | — | 465k | — |
04/02/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 36k | — | 21k | — |
04/02/21 | Unemployment Rate | 6.00% | — | 6.20% | — |
04/02/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
04/02/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.50% | — | 5.30% | — |
04/02/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | — | 34.6 | — |
04/02/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.50% | — | 61.40% | — |
04/02/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 11.10% | — |
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