March 30, 2021 Headlines

Intermediate and long-end Treasury yields are another 3-5 basis points higher on reports that Biden’s infrastructure plan may cost as much as $4 trillion. President Biden is expected to announce this massive plan tomorrow, which is reported to include $3.5 trillion of tax hikes. According to Washington Post sources, the larger than expected tax hikes are intended to soften the deficit impact and avoid a sharp rise in Treasury yields.

On the economic data front, the U.S. housing market remains hot, but it will be important to see what impact the rise in mortgage rates will have on the recent momentum going forward. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) was up 11.1% year-over-year in January, the biggest such gain since early 2006 and the second consecutive double-digit gain.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/29/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity16.828.917.2
03/30/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.20%1.00%1.10%1.20%
03/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.20%1.20%1.25%1.30%
03/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA11.20%11.10%10.10%10.17%
03/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA10.50%11.22%10.37%10.41%
03/30/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence96.991.3
03/30/21Conf. Board Present Situation92
03/30/21Conf. Board Expectations90.8
03/31/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
03/31/21ADP Employment Change550k117k
03/31/21MNI Chicago PMI6159.5
03/31/21Pending Home Sales MoM-3.00%-2.80%
03/31/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY6.50%8.20%
04/01/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-39.10%
04/01/21Revisions: Initial and Continued Claims
04/01/21Initial Jobless Claims678k684k
04/01/21Continuing Claims3750k3870k
04/01/21Langer Consumer Comfort49.1
04/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159
04/01/21Construction Spending MoM-1.00%1.70%
04/01/21ISM Manufacturing61.560.8
04/01/21ISM Prices Paid8286
04/01/21ISM New Orders64.8
04/01/21ISM Employment54.4
04/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.40m15.67m
04/02/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls650k379k
04/02/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision38k
04/02/21Change in Private Payrolls650k465k
04/02/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls36k21k
04/02/21Unemployment Rate6.00%6.20%
04/02/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.10%0.20%
04/02/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.50%5.30%
04/02/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.6
04/02/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.40%
04/02/21Underemployment Rate11.10%

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