March 30, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning, with front-end yields down 1-2 bps and long-end yields up 1-2 bps. The 2-year/10-year yield spread was briefly inverted yesterday afternoon for the first time since 2019, leading to another round of opinion pieces on recession signals. US equities are struggling ahead of the open, with futures down 40-60 bps an hour before the open. Contributing to the negative risk sentiment was Kremlin officials saying they see “no breakthrough” in peace talks with Ukraine, which also has oil prices up approximately 3% on the day.

The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.8% last week, led by a 14.9% decline in refinance applications. That adds up to a 2-week decline of 29.3% and pushes the refi index to a 3-year low. The MBA reported that the average contract rate for a 30-year conventional mortgage rose 30 bps last week to 4.8% and is now up approximately 150 bps YTD. Purchase applications were also somewhat muted last week, rising just 0.6% following a 1.5% decline the prior week. On a year-over-year basis, purchase applications were down 10.1% last week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/28/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$106.5b	-$106.6b	-$107.6b	—
03/28/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.00%	2.10%	0.80%	1.10%
03/28/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.30%	1.10%	1.90%	—
03/28/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	11	8.7	14	—
03/29/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.20%	1.60%	1.20%	1.30%
03/29/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	1.79%	1.46%	1.43%
03/29/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	18.60%	19.10%	18.56%	18.58%
03/29/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.17%	18.84%	18.88%
03/29/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	107	107.2	110.5	105.7
03/29/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	153	145.1	143
03/29/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	76.6	87.5	80.8
03/29/22	JOLTS Job Openings	11000k	11266k	11263k	11283k
03/30/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.80%	-8.10%	—
03/30/22	ADP Employment Change	450k	455k	475k	486k
03/30/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	7.00%	6.90%	7.00%	—
03/30/22	Personal Consumption	3.10%	2.50%	3.10%	—
03/30/22	GDP Price Index	7.10%	7.10%	7.10%	—
03/30/22	Core PCE QoQ	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—
03/31/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-55.90%	—
03/31/22	Personal Income	0.50%	—	0.00%	—
03/31/22	Personal Spending	0.50%	—	2.10%	—
03/31/22	Real Personal Spending	-0.20%	—	1.50%	—
03/31/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
03/31/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.40%	—	6.10%	—
03/31/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
03/31/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	5.50%	—	5.20%	—
03/31/22	Initial Jobless Claims	196k	—	187k	—
03/31/22	Continuing Claims	1340k	—	1350k	—
03/31/22	MNI Chicago PMI	57	—	56.3	—
04/01/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	92k	—
04/01/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	490k	—	678k	—
04/01/22	Change in Private Payrolls	499k	—	654k	—
04/01/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	30k	—	36k	—
04/01/22	Unemployment Rate	3.70%	—	3.80%	—
04/01/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.00%	—
04/01/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.50%	—	5.10%	—
04/01/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.7	—
04/01/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.40%	—	62.30%	—
04/01/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.20%	—
04/01/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	58.5	—	58.5	—
04/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	—	1.30%	—
04/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	59	—	58.6	—
04/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	80	—	75.6	—
04/01/22	ISM New Orders	58.5	—	61.7	—
04/01/22	ISM Employment	53.1	—	52.9	—
04/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.50m	—	14.07m	—

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