Treasuries are little changed this morning, with front-end yields down 1-2 bps and long-end yields up 1-2 bps. The 2-year/10-year yield spread was briefly inverted yesterday afternoon for the first time since 2019, leading to another round of opinion pieces on recession signals. US equities are struggling ahead of the open, with futures down 40-60 bps an hour before the open. Contributing to the negative risk sentiment was Kremlin officials saying they see “no breakthrough” in peace talks with Ukraine, which also has oil prices up approximately 3% on the day.
The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.8% last week, led by a 14.9% decline in refinance applications. That adds up to a 2-week decline of 29.3% and pushes the refi index to a 3-year low. The MBA reported that the average contract rate for a 30-year conventional mortgage rose 30 bps last week to 4.8% and is now up approximately 150 bps YTD. Purchase applications were also somewhat muted last week, rising just 0.6% following a 1.5% decline the prior week. On a year-over-year basis, purchase applications were down 10.1% last week.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/28/22 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$106.5b | -$106.6b | -$107.6b | — |
03/28/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.00% | 2.10% | 0.80% | 1.10% |
03/28/22 | Retail Inventories MoM | 1.30% | 1.10% | 1.90% | — |
03/28/22 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 11 | 8.7 | 14 | — |
03/29/22 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.20% | 1.60% | 1.20% | 1.30% |
03/29/22 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.50% | 1.79% | 1.46% | 1.43% |
03/29/22 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 18.60% | 19.10% | 18.56% | 18.58% |
03/29/22 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 19.17% | 18.84% | 18.88% |
03/29/22 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 107 | 107.2 | 110.5 | 105.7 |
03/29/22 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 153 | 145.1 | 143 |
03/29/22 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 76.6 | 87.5 | 80.8 |
03/29/22 | JOLTS Job Openings | 11000k | 11266k | 11263k | 11283k |
03/30/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -6.80% | -8.10% | — |
03/30/22 | ADP Employment Change | 450k | 455k | 475k | 486k |
03/30/22 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 7.00% | 6.90% | 7.00% | — |
03/30/22 | Personal Consumption | 3.10% | 2.50% | 3.10% | — |
03/30/22 | GDP Price Index | 7.10% | 7.10% | 7.10% | — |
03/30/22 | Core PCE QoQ | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | — |
03/31/22 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -55.90% | — |
03/31/22 | Personal Income | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
03/31/22 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 2.10% | — |
03/31/22 | Real Personal Spending | -0.20% | — | 1.50% | — |
03/31/22 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
03/31/22 | PCE Deflator YoY | 6.40% | — | 6.10% | — |
03/31/22 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
03/31/22 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 5.50% | — | 5.20% | — |
03/31/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 196k | — | 187k | — |
03/31/22 | Continuing Claims | 1340k | — | 1350k | — |
03/31/22 | MNI Chicago PMI | 57 | — | 56.3 | — |
04/01/22 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 92k | — |
04/01/22 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 490k | — | 678k | — |
04/01/22 | Change in Private Payrolls | 499k | — | 654k | — |
04/01/22 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 30k | — | 36k | — |
04/01/22 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.80% | — |
04/01/22 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
04/01/22 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.50% | — | 5.10% | — |
04/01/22 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | — | 34.7 | — |
04/01/22 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.40% | — | 62.30% | — |
04/01/22 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.20% | — |
04/01/22 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 58.5 | — | 58.5 | — |
04/01/22 | Construction Spending MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.30% | — |
04/01/22 | ISM Manufacturing | 59 | — | 58.6 | — |
04/01/22 | ISM Prices Paid | 80 | — | 75.6 | — |
04/01/22 | ISM New Orders | 58.5 | — | 61.7 | — |
04/01/22 | ISM Employment | 53.1 | — | 52.9 | — |
04/01/22 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 13.50m | — | 14.07m | — |
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