March 30, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning, with front-end yields down 1-2 bps and long-end yields up 1-2 bps. The 2-year/10-year yield spread was briefly inverted yesterday afternoon for the first time since 2019, leading to another round of opinion pieces on recession signals. US equities are struggling ahead of the open, with futures down 40-60 bps an hour before the open. Contributing to the negative risk sentiment was Kremlin officials saying they see “no breakthrough” in peace talks with Ukraine, which also has oil prices up approximately 3% on the day.

The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.8% last week, led by a 14.9% decline in refinance applications. That adds up to a 2-week decline of 29.3% and pushes the refi index to a 3-year low. The MBA reported that the average contract rate for a 30-year conventional mortgage rose 30 bps last week to 4.8% and is now up approximately 150 bps YTD. Purchase applications were also somewhat muted last week, rising just 0.6% following a 1.5% decline the prior week. On a year-over-year basis, purchase applications were down 10.1% last week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/28/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$106.5b-$106.6b-$107.6b
03/28/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%2.10%0.80%1.10%
03/28/22Retail Inventories MoM1.30%1.10%1.90%
03/28/22Dallas Fed Manf. Activity118.714
03/29/22FHFA House Price Index MoM1.20%1.60%1.20%1.30%
03/29/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.79%1.46%1.43%
03/29/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA18.60%19.10%18.56%18.58%
03/29/22S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.17%18.84%18.88%
03/29/22Conf. Board Consumer Confidence107107.2110.5105.7
03/29/22Conf. Board Present Situation153145.1143
03/29/22Conf. Board Expectations76.687.580.8
03/29/22JOLTS Job Openings11000k11266k11263k11283k
03/30/22MBA Mortgage Applications-6.80%-8.10%
03/30/22ADP Employment Change450k455k475k486k
03/30/22GDP Annualized QoQ7.00%6.90%7.00%
03/30/22Personal Consumption3.10%2.50%3.10%
03/30/22GDP Price Index7.10%7.10%7.10%
03/30/22Core PCE QoQ5.00%5.00%5.00%
03/31/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-55.90%
03/31/22Personal Income0.50%0.00%
03/31/22Personal Spending0.50%2.10%
03/31/22Real Personal Spending-0.20%1.50%
03/31/22PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.60%
03/31/22PCE Deflator YoY6.40%6.10%
03/31/22PCE Core Deflator MoM0.40%0.50%
03/31/22PCE Core Deflator YoY5.50%5.20%
03/31/22Initial Jobless Claims196k187k
03/31/22Continuing Claims1340k1350k
03/31/22MNI Chicago PMI5756.3
04/01/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision92k
04/01/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls490k678k
04/01/22Change in Private Payrolls499k654k
04/01/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls30k36k
04/01/22Unemployment Rate3.70%3.80%
04/01/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.00%
04/01/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.50%5.10%
04/01/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
04/01/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%62.30%
04/01/22Underemployment Rate7.20%
04/01/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI58.558.5
04/01/22Construction Spending MoM1.00%1.30%
04/01/22ISM Manufacturing5958.6
04/01/22ISM Prices Paid8075.6
04/01/22ISM New Orders58.561.7
04/01/22ISM Employment53.152.9
04/01/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.50m14.07m


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