There’s mixed trading action in financial markets this morning. Equity futures are up 2% following the strong Super Tuesday performance by Joe Biden versus Bernie Sanders. However, Treasury prices are still holding firm (at least for now) given expectations of more Fed cuts in the coming weeks/months. One-month and three-month LIBOR reset lower today by 36 bps and 31 bps, respectively, with the market now pricing 100% probability of a 25 bps March rate cut and 60% probability of a 50 bps cut. These were the biggest daily declines in those rates since October 2008. The MBA Mortgage Applications index rose 15% for the week ended February 28, led by a 26% increase in refinance applications (purchase applications -2.7%). The refi index is now up 160% in 2020 amid a 38 bps decline in the survey’s 30-year primary mortgage rate.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/4/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 15.10% | 1.50% | — |
3/4/2020 | ADP Employment Change | 170k | 183k | 291k | 209k |
3/4/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 49.4 | — | 49.4 | — |
3/4/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 49.6 | — |
3/4/2020 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 54.8 | — | 55.5 | — |
3/4/2020 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
3/5/2020 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 27.80% | — |
3/5/2020 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
3/5/2020 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
3/5/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 219k | — |
3/5/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1738k | — | 1724k | — |
3/5/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63.5 | — |
3/5/2020 | Factory Orders | -0.10% | — | 1.80% | — |
3/5/2020 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.60% | — |
3/5/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
3/5/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.90% | — |
3/5/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.10% | — |
3/5/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.10% | — |
3/6/2020 | Trade Balance | -$46.1b | — | -$48.9b | — |
3/6/2020 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 175k | — | 225k | — |
3/6/2020 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 7k | — |
3/6/2020 | Change in Private Payrolls | 160k | — | 206k | — |
3/6/2020 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -3k | — | -12k | — |
3/6/2020 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.60% | — |
3/6/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
3/6/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
3/6/2020 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
3/6/2020 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.40% | — | 63.40% | — |
3/6/2020 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 6.90% | — |
3/6/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
3/6/2020 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -0.70% | — |
3/6/2020 | Consumer Credit | $16.750b | — | $22.055b | — |
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