March 4, 2020 Headlines

There’s mixed trading action in financial markets this morning. Equity futures are up 2% following the strong Super Tuesday performance by Joe Biden versus Bernie Sanders. However, Treasury prices are still holding firm (at least for now) given expectations of more Fed cuts in the coming weeks/months. One-month and three-month LIBOR reset lower today by 36 bps and 31 bps, respectively, with the market now pricing 100% probability of a 25 bps March rate cut and 60% probability of a 50 bps cut. These were the biggest daily declines in those rates since October 2008. The MBA Mortgage Applications index rose 15% for the week ended February 28, led by a 26% increase in refinance applications (purchase applications -2.7%). The refi index is now up 160% in 2020 amid a 38 bps decline in the survey’s 30-year primary mortgage rate.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/4/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—15.10%1.50%—
3/4/2020ADP Employment Change170k183k291k209k
3/4/2020Markit US Services PMI49.4—49.4—
3/4/2020Markit US Composite PMI——49.6—
3/4/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index54.8—55.5—
3/4/2020U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
3/5/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY——27.80%—
3/5/2020Nonfarm Productivity1.30%—1.40%—
3/5/2020Unit Labor Costs1.40%—1.40%—
3/5/2020Initial Jobless Claims215k—219k—
3/5/2020Continuing Claims1738k—1724k—
3/5/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——63.5—
3/5/2020Factory Orders-0.10%—1.80%—
3/5/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.60%—
3/5/2020Durable Goods Orders-0.20%—-0.20%—
3/5/2020Durables Ex Transportation——0.90%—
3/5/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——1.10%—
3/5/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——1.10%—
3/6/2020Trade Balance-$46.1b—-$48.9b—
3/6/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls175k—225k—
3/6/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——7k—
3/6/2020Change in Private Payrolls160k—206k—
3/6/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-3k—-12k—
3/6/2020Unemployment Rate3.60%—3.60%—
3/6/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.20%—
3/6/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%—3.10%—
3/6/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
3/6/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.40%—63.40%—
3/6/2020Underemployment Rate——6.90%—
3/6/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%—-0.20%—
3/6/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——-0.70%—
3/6/2020Consumer Credit$16.750b—$22.055b—

 

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