March 4, 2020 Headlines

There’s mixed trading action in financial markets this morning. Equity futures are up 2% following the strong Super Tuesday performance by Joe Biden versus Bernie Sanders. However, Treasury prices are still holding firm (at least for now) given expectations of more Fed cuts in the coming weeks/months. One-month and three-month LIBOR reset lower today by 36 bps and 31 bps, respectively, with the market now pricing 100% probability of a 25 bps March rate cut and 60% probability of a 50 bps cut. These were the biggest daily declines in those rates since October 2008. The MBA Mortgage Applications index rose 15% for the week ended February 28, led by a 26% increase in refinance applications (purchase applications -2.7%). The refi index is now up 160% in 2020 amid a 38 bps decline in the survey’s 30-year primary mortgage rate.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
3/4/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	15.10%	1.50%	—
3/4/2020	ADP Employment Change	170k	183k	291k	209k
3/4/2020	Markit US Services PMI	49.4	—	49.4	—
3/4/2020	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	49.6	—
3/4/2020	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.8	—	55.5	—
3/4/2020	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
3/5/2020	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	27.80%	—
3/5/2020	Nonfarm Productivity	1.30%	—	1.40%	—
3/5/2020	Unit Labor Costs	1.40%	—	1.40%	—
3/5/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	219k	—
3/5/2020	Continuing Claims	1738k	—	1724k	—
3/5/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.5	—
3/5/2020	Factory Orders	-0.10%	—	1.80%	—
3/5/2020	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.60%	—
3/5/2020	Durable Goods Orders	-0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
3/5/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	0.90%	—
3/5/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.10%	—
3/5/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.10%	—
3/6/2020	Trade Balance	-$46.1b	—	-$48.9b	—
3/6/2020	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	175k	—	225k	—
3/6/2020	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	7k	—
3/6/2020	Change in Private Payrolls	160k	—	206k	—
3/6/2020	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	-3k	—	-12k	—
3/6/2020	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
3/6/2020	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
3/6/2020	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.10%	—
3/6/2020	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.3	—	34.3	—
3/6/2020	Labor Force Participation Rate	63.40%	—	63.40%	—
3/6/2020	Underemployment Rate	—	—	6.90%	—
3/6/2020	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
3/6/2020	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	-0.70%	—
3/6/2020	Consumer Credit	$16.750b	—	$22.055b	—

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