March 4, 2021 Headlines

Better buying overnight in Asian markets has Treasury yields marginally lower this morning ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at noon today. The Fed chair is expected to further reinforce the belief that there’s still a long way to go before the Fed’s goals are achieved and that inflation worries are premature at this point. Regarding the latter, he will also likely reiterate the expectation for an uptick in inflation in the coming months and the belief that it will be temporary. Initial jobless claims for last week were essentially in line with expectations at 745,000, and continuing claims for the week ended February 20 were slightly higher when accounting for people transitioning into extended benefits.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/01/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	58.5	58.6	58.5	—
03/01/21	Construction Spending MoM	0.80%	1.70%	1.00%	1.10%
03/01/21	ISM Manufacturing	58.9	60.8	58.7	—
03/01/21	ISM Prices Paid	80	86	82.1	—
03/01/21	ISM New Orders	60	64.8	61.1	—
03/01/21	ISM Employment	—	54.4	52.6	—
03/02/21	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.00m	15.67m	16.63m	—
03/03/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.50%	-11.40%	—
03/03/21	ADP Employment Change	205k	117k	174k	195k
03/03/21	Markit US Services PMI	58.9	59.8	58.9	—
03/03/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	59.5	58.8	—
03/03/21	ISM Services Index	58.7	55.3	58.7	—
03/03/21	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-39.10%	17.40%	—
03/04/21	Nonfarm Productivity	-4.70%	-4.20%	-4.80%	—
03/04/21	Unit Labor Costs	6.60%	6.00%	6.80%	—
03/04/21	Initial Jobless Claims	750k	745k	730k	736k
03/04/21	Continuing Claims	4300k	4295k	4419k	—
03/04/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	47.3	—
03/04/21	Factory Orders	2.10%	—	1.10%	—
03/04/21	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	1.40%	—
03/04/21	Durable Goods Orders	3.40%	—	3.40%	—
03/04/21	Durables Ex Transportation	1.40%	—	1.40%	—
03/04/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
03/04/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	2.10%	—
03/05/21	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
03/05/21	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	198k	—	49k	—
03/05/21	Change in Private Payrolls	198k	—	6k	—
03/05/21	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	15k	—	-10k	—
03/05/21	Unemployment Rate	6.30%	—	6.30%	—
03/05/21	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
03/05/21	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.30%	—	5.40%	—
03/05/21	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.9	—	35	—
03/05/21	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.40%	—	61.40%	—
03/05/21	Underemployment Rate	—	—	11.10%	—
03/05/21	Trade Balance	-$67.5b	—	-$66.6b	—
03/05/21	Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21	Consumer Credit	$12.000b	—	$9.734b	—

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