March 4, 2021 Headlines

Better buying overnight in Asian markets has Treasury yields marginally lower this morning ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at noon today. The Fed chair is expected to further reinforce the belief that there’s still a long way to go before the Fed’s goals are achieved and that inflation worries are premature at this point. Regarding the latter, he will also likely reiterate the expectation for an uptick in inflation in the coming months and the belief that it will be temporary.  Initial jobless claims for last week were essentially in line with expectations at 745,000, and continuing claims for the week ended February 20 were slightly higher when accounting for people transitioning into extended benefits. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 58.5 58.6 58.5
03/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 1.70% 1.00% 1.10%
03/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 58.9 60.8 58.7
03/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 80 86 82.1
03/01/21 ISM New Orders 60 64.8 61.1
03/01/21 ISM Employment 54.4 52.6
03/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m 15.67m 16.63m
03/03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.50% -11.40%
03/03/21 ADP Employment Change 205k 117k 174k 195k
03/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 58.9 59.8 58.9
03/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI 59.5 58.8
03/03/21 ISM Services Index 58.7 55.3 58.7
03/03/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -39.10% 17.40%
03/04/21 Nonfarm Productivity -4.70% -4.20% -4.80%
03/04/21 Unit Labor Costs 6.60% 6.00% 6.80%
03/04/21 Initial Jobless Claims 750k 745k 730k 736k
03/04/21 Continuing Claims 4300k 4295k 4419k
03/04/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 47.3
03/04/21 Factory Orders 2.10% 1.10%
03/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.40%
03/04/21 Durable Goods Orders 3.40% 3.40%
03/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.40% 1.40%
03/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.50%
03/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 2.10%
03/05/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/05/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 198k 49k
03/05/21 Change in Private Payrolls 198k 6k
03/05/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k -10k
03/05/21 Unemployment Rate 6.30% 6.30%
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.20%
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% 5.40%
03/05/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 35
03/05/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40% 61.40%
03/05/21 Underemployment Rate 11.10%
03/05/21 Trade Balance -$67.5b -$66.6b
03/05/21 Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21 Consumer Credit $12.000b $9.734b

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