March 4, 2021 Headlines

Better buying overnight in Asian markets has Treasury yields marginally lower this morning ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at noon today. The Fed chair is expected to further reinforce the belief that there’s still a long way to go before the Fed’s goals are achieved and that inflation worries are premature at this point. Regarding the latter, he will also likely reiterate the expectation for an uptick in inflation in the coming months and the belief that it will be temporary.  Initial jobless claims for last week were essentially in line with expectations at 745,000, and continuing claims for the week ended February 20 were slightly higher when accounting for people transitioning into extended benefits. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI58.558.658.5
03/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.80%1.70%1.00%1.10%
03/01/21ISM Manufacturing58.960.858.7
03/01/21ISM Prices Paid808682.1
03/01/21ISM New Orders6064.861.1
03/01/21ISM Employment54.452.6
03/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m15.67m16.63m
03/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.50%-11.40%
03/03/21ADP Employment Change205k117k174k195k
03/03/21Markit US Services PMI58.959.858.9
03/03/21Markit US Composite PMI59.558.8
03/03/21ISM Services Index58.755.358.7
03/03/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-39.10%17.40%
03/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-4.70%-4.20%-4.80%
03/04/21Unit Labor Costs6.60%6.00%6.80%
03/04/21Initial Jobless Claims750k745k730k736k
03/04/21Continuing Claims4300k4295k4419k
03/04/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.3
03/04/21Factory Orders2.10%1.10%
03/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans1.40%
03/04/21Durable Goods Orders3.40%3.40%
03/04/21Durables Ex Transportation1.40%1.40%
03/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.50%
03/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.10%
03/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls198k49k
03/05/21Change in Private Payrolls198k6k
03/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k-10k
03/05/21Unemployment Rate6.30%6.30%
03/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.20%
03/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.30%5.40%
03/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.935
03/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.40%61.40%
03/05/21Underemployment Rate11.10%
03/05/21Trade Balance-$67.5b-$66.6b
03/05/21Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.734b

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