Better buying overnight in Asian markets has Treasury yields marginally lower this morning ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at noon today. The Fed chair is expected to further reinforce the belief that there’s still a long way to go before the Fed’s goals are achieved and that inflation worries are premature at this point. Regarding the latter, he will also likely reiterate the expectation for an uptick in inflation in the coming months and the belief that it will be temporary. Initial jobless claims for last week were essentially in line with expectations at 745,000, and continuing claims for the week ended February 20 were slightly higher when accounting for people transitioning into extended benefits.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 58.5 | 58.6 | 58.5 | — |
03/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.80% | 1.70% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
03/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.9 | 60.8 | 58.7 | — |
03/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 80 | 86 | 82.1 | — |
03/01/21 | ISM New Orders | 60 | 64.8 | 61.1 | — |
03/01/21 | ISM Employment | — | 54.4 | 52.6 | — |
03/02/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.00m | 15.67m | 16.63m | — |
03/03/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.50% | -11.40% | — |
03/03/21 | ADP Employment Change | 205k | 117k | 174k | 195k |
03/03/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 58.9 | 59.8 | 58.9 | — |
03/03/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 59.5 | 58.8 | — |
03/03/21 | ISM Services Index | 58.7 | 55.3 | 58.7 | — |
03/03/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
03/04/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -39.10% | 17.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Nonfarm Productivity | -4.70% | -4.20% | -4.80% | — |
03/04/21 | Unit Labor Costs | 6.60% | 6.00% | 6.80% | — |
03/04/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 750k | 745k | 730k | 736k |
03/04/21 | Continuing Claims | 4300k | 4295k | 4419k | — |
03/04/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 47.3 | — |
03/04/21 | Factory Orders | 2.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
03/04/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
03/04/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
03/04/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 2.10% | — |
03/05/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
03/05/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 198k | — | 49k | — |
03/05/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 198k | — | 6k | — |
03/05/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | — | -10k | — |
03/05/21 | Unemployment Rate | 6.30% | — | 6.30% | — |
03/05/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
03/05/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.30% | — | 5.40% | — |
03/05/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.9 | — | 35 | — |
03/05/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.40% | — | 61.40% | — |
03/05/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 11.10% | — |
03/05/21 | Trade Balance | -$67.5b | — | -$66.6b | — |
03/05/21 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
03/05/21 | Consumer Credit | $12.000b | — | $9.734b | — |
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