Treasuries are little changed to start the day, but risk markets performed well overnight on reports that a U.S./China deal is imminent that would lift U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Major global equity indices are higher on the day, and credit spreads are modestly tighter. While no definitive trade agreement has been announced, media reports over the weekend suggest that Trump and Xi could sign a deal at a summit later this month. Both sides are expected to lift nearly all tariffs on imported goods, and China would reportedly increase purchase of U.S. goods and remove barriers for foreign companies into certain sectors, such as autos and financial services. Some articles are suggesting that the deal would fall well short of what the White House was initially targeting from an enforceability standpoint, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, but it’s been reported for several weeks that President Trump had lowered his standards in order to get a deal done sooner than later. Of course, all these reports are still speculative at this point, and as always, the devil is in the detail (assuming a deal does get done).
This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the February jobs report on Friday, and the European Central Bank will be releasing its policy decision on Thursday. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including New York Fed President John Williams (Wednesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Friday).
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/4/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 56.2 | — | 56.2 | — |
| 3/5/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.8 | — |
| 3/5/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57.3 | — | 56.7 | — |
| 3/5/2019 | New Home Sales | 598k | — | 657k | — |
| 3/5/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | -8.70% | — | 16.90% | — |
| 3/5/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | $12.0b | — | -$13.5b | — |
| 3/6/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 5.30% | — |
| 3/6/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | — | 213k | — |
| 3/6/2019 | Trade Balance | -$57.9b | — | -$49.3b | — |
| 3/6/2019 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/7/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 18.70% | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 225k | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1762k | — | 1805k | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.50% | — | 2.30% | 2.20% |
| 3/7/2019 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.70% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61 | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2070b | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | — | $16.554b | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Housing Starts | 1190k | — | 1078k | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | 10.40% | — | -11.20% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Building Permits | 1287k | — | 1326k | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Building Permits MoM | -2.80% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 185k | — | 304k | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 180k | — | 296k | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | 13k | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 63.20% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.10% | — |