Treasuries are little changed to start the day, but risk markets performed well overnight on reports that a U.S./China deal is imminent that would lift U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Major global equity indices are higher on the day, and credit spreads are modestly tighter. While no definitive trade agreement has been announced, media reports over the weekend suggest that Trump and Xi could sign a deal at a summit later this month. Both sides are expected to lift nearly all tariffs on imported goods, and China would reportedly increase purchase of U.S. goods and remove barriers for foreign companies into certain sectors, such as autos and financial services. Some articles are suggesting that the deal would fall well short of what the White House was initially targeting from an enforceability standpoint, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, but it’s been reported for several weeks that President Trump had lowered his standards in order to get a deal done sooner than later. Of course, all these reports are still speculative at this point, and as always, the devil is in the detail (assuming a deal does get done).

This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the February jobs report on Friday, and the European Central Bank will be releasing its policy decision on Thursday. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including New York Fed President John Williams (Wednesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Friday).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/4/2019Construction Spending MoM0.10%0.80%
3/5/2019Markit US Services PMI56.256.2
3/5/2019Markit US Composite PMI55.8
3/5/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index57.356.7
3/5/2019New Home Sales598k657k
3/5/2019New Home Sales MoM-8.70%16.90%
3/5/2019Monthly Budget Statement$12.0b-$13.5b
3/6/2019MBA Mortgage Applications5.30%
3/6/2019ADP Employment Change190k213k
3/6/2019Trade Balance-$57.9b-$49.3b
3/6/2019U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
3/7/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY18.70%
3/7/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k225k
3/7/2019Continuing Claims1762k1805k
3/7/2019Nonfarm Productivity1.50%2.30%2.20%
3/7/2019Unit Labor Costs1.70%0.90%
3/7/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61
3/7/2019Household Change in Net Worth$2070b
3/7/2019Consumer Credit$17.000b$16.554b
3/8/2019Housing Starts1190k1078k
3/8/2019Housing Starts MoM10.40%-11.20%
3/8/2019Building Permits1287k1326k
3/8/2019Building Permits MoM-2.80%0.30%
3/8/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k304k
3/8/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
3/8/2019Change in Private Payrolls180k296k
3/8/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k13k
3/8/2019Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%
3/8/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
3/8/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%3.20%
3/8/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
3/8/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%
3/8/2019Underemployment Rate8.10%