Treasury prices are higher this morning, largely in response to a strong showing from nationalist/populist candidates in the Italian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, it was a fairly quiet weekend from a news perspective. Markets continue to digest the White House’s plans for steel and aluminum tariffs, which weighed on equity markets late last week. Some economists are suggesting that the tariffs aren’t a threat to the broad economy given that the effected industries represent a very small share of overall GDP. However, others are concerned that the retaliation from trading partners could spill over into other sectors. Fixed income investors seem to be more focused on the Fed, and if anything, tariffs add to inflationary pressures. Comments from Fed leaders last week, including Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimonies, were somewhat hawkish, and it appears they are preparing the markets for an increase in the number of projected rate hikes for 2018 at the March meeting. This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the February jobs report on Friday, and market participants will again be focusing more on the wage data within the report. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including the newest governor Randal Quarles today. Quarles is the new Vice Chair for Supervision (bank regulation), and he will be speaking on foreign bank regulation at an international banking conference in Washington.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 3/5/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | Feb F | 55.9 | — | 55.9 | — |
| 3/5/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | Feb F | — | — | 55.9 | — |
| 3/5/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Feb | 59 | — | 59.9 | — |
| 3/6/2018 | Factory Orders | Jan | -1.30% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 3/6/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | Jan | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 3/6/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | Jan F | -3.60% | — | -3.70% | — |
| 3/6/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | Jan F | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/6/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Jan F | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/6/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Jan F | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 3/7/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 2-Mar | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 3/7/2018 | ADP Employment Change | Feb | 200k | — | 234k | — |
| 3/7/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 4Q F | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/7/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 4Q F | 2.10% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/7/2018 | Trade Balance | Jan | -$55.1b | — | -$53.1b | — |
| 3/7/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||||
| 3/7/2018 | Consumer Credit | Jan | $18.000b | — | $18.447b | — |
| 3/8/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | Feb | — | — | -2.80% | — |
| 3/8/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 3-Mar | 220k | — | 210k | — |
| 3/8/2018 | Continuing Claims | 24-Feb | 1922k | — | 1931k | — |
| 3/8/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 4-Mar | — | — | 56.2 | — |
| 3/8/2018 | Household Change in Net Worth | 4Q | — | — | $1742b | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Feb | 200k | — | 200k | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Feb | — | — | — | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | Feb | 196k | — | 196k | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Feb | 15k | — | 15k | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Unemployment Rate | Feb | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Underemployment Rate | Feb | — | — | 8.20% | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Feb | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Feb | 2.80% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Feb | 34.4 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Feb | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Jan | — | — | 1.20% | — |
| 3/9/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Jan F | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |