Treasury prices are higher this morning, largely in response to a strong showing from nationalist/populist candidates in the Italian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, it was a fairly quiet weekend from a news perspective. Markets continue to digest the White House’s plans for steel and aluminum tariffs, which weighed on equity markets late last week. Some economists are suggesting that the tariffs aren’t a threat to the broad economy given that the effected industries represent a very small share of overall GDP. However, others are concerned that the retaliation from trading partners could spill over into other sectors. Fixed income investors seem to be more focused on the Fed, and if anything, tariffs add to inflationary pressures. Comments from Fed leaders last week, including Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimonies, were somewhat hawkish, and it appears they are preparing the markets for an increase in the number of projected rate hikes for 2018 at the March meeting. This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the February jobs report on Friday, and market participants will again be focusing more on the wage data within the report. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including the newest governor Randal Quarles today. Quarles is the new Vice Chair for Supervision (bank regulation), and he will be speaking on foreign bank regulation at an international banking conference in Washington.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
3/5/2018Markit US Services PMIFeb F55.955.9
3/5/2018Markit US Composite PMIFeb F55.9
3/5/2018ISM Non-Manf. CompositeFeb5959.9
3/6/2018Factory OrdersJan-1.30%1.70%
3/6/2018Factory Orders Ex TransJan0.70%
3/6/2018Durable Goods OrdersJan F-3.60%-3.70%
3/6/2018Durables Ex TransportationJan F-0.30%
3/6/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirJan F-0.20%
3/6/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirJan F0.10%
3/7/2018MBA Mortgage Applications2-Mar2.70%
3/7/2018ADP Employment ChangeFeb200k234k
3/7/2018Nonfarm Productivity4Q F-0.10%-0.10%
3/7/2018Unit Labor Costs4Q F2.10%2.00%
3/7/2018Trade BalanceJan-$55.1b-$53.1b
3/7/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
3/7/2018Consumer CreditJan$18.000b$18.447b
3/8/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoYFeb-2.80%
3/8/2018Initial Jobless Claims3-Mar220k210k
3/8/2018Continuing Claims24-Feb1922k1931k
3/8/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort4-Mar56.2
3/8/2018Household Change in Net Worth4Q$1742b
3/9/2018Change in Nonfarm PayrollsFeb200k200k
3/9/2018Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionFeb
3/9/2018Change in Private PayrollsFeb196k196k
3/9/2018Change in Manufact. PayrollsFeb15k15k
3/9/2018Unemployment RateFeb4.00%4.10%
3/9/2018Underemployment RateFeb8.20%
3/9/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoMFeb0.20%0.30%
3/9/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoYFeb2.80%2.90%
3/9/2018Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesFeb34.434.3
3/9/2018Labor Force Participation RateFeb62.70%62.70%
3/9/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoMJan1.20%
3/9/2018Wholesale Inventories MoMJan F0.70%0.70%