Another risk-off trade emerged overnight, steeping the yield curve, as 2-year US Treasury yields declined 12.5bps and 10-year yields 11bps lower. Fears surrounding the coronavirus continued to intensify as Switzerland reported their first death related to the virus. In addition, California Governor Newsome declared a State of Emergency in California in order to allow state agencies to procure supplies and resources to fight the virus. This follows a $7.8 billion spending bill passed by the House of Representatives on Wednesday as governments prepare for an increase in cases.
According to the Labor Department, US employment benefit filings fell last week by 3,000 to 216,000 claims. The headline number was in line with consensus expectations and so far, the data has not shown a significant impact from the virus. However, if labor conditions start to deteriorate, jobless claims will most likely be one of the leading indicators.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/2/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 50.7 | 50.8 | — |
| 3/2/2020 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.60% | 1.80% | -0.20% | 0.20% |
| 3/2/2020 | ISM Manufacturing | 50.5 | 50.1 | 50.9 | — |
| 3/2/2020 | ISM New Orders | 51.8 | 49.8 | 52 | — |
| 3/2/2020 | ISM Prices Paid | 50.8 | 45.9 | 53.3 | — |
| 3/2/2020 | ISM Employment | 47.5 | 46.9 | 46.6 | — |
| 3/3/2020 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.50% | 1.25% | 1.75% | — |
| 3/3/2020 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.25% | 1.00% | 1.50% | — |
| 3/3/2020 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | — | 1.10% | 1.60% | — |
| 3/3/2020 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | 16.83m | 16.84m | — |
| 3/4/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 15.10% | 1.50% | — |
| 3/4/2020 | ADP Employment Change | 170k | 183k | 291k | 209k |
| 3/4/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 | — |
| 3/4/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 49.6 | 49.6 | — |
| 3/4/2020 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 54.8 | 57.3 | 55.5 | — |
| 3/4/2020 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/5/2020 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -26.30% | 27.80% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.40% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.40% | 0.90% | 1.40% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 216k | 219k | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1738k | 1729k | 1724k | 1722k |
| 3/5/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 63 | 63.5 | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Factory Orders | -0.10% | -0.50% | 1.80% | 1.90% |
| 3/5/2020 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | -0.10% | 0.60% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.90% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
| 3/5/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.00% | 1.10% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Trade Balance | -$46.2b | — | -$48.9b | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 175k | — | 225k | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Change in Private Payrolls | 160k | — | 206k | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -3k | — | -12k | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.40% | — | 63.40% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 6.90% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 3/6/2020 | Consumer Credit | $16.500b | — | $22.055b | — |
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