March 5, 2020 Headlines

Another risk-off trade emerged overnight, steeping the yield curve, as 2-year US Treasury yields declined 12.5bps and 10-year yields 11bps lower. Fears surrounding the coronavirus continued to intensify as Switzerland reported their first death related to the virus. In addition, California Governor Newsome declared a State of Emergency in California in order to allow state agencies to procure supplies and resources to fight the virus. This follows a $7.8 billion spending bill passed by the House of Representatives on Wednesday as governments prepare for an increase in cases.

According to the Labor Department, US employment benefit filings fell last week by 3,000 to 216,000 claims. The headline number was in line with consensus expectations and so far, the data has not shown a significant impact from the virus. However, if labor conditions start to deteriorate, jobless claims will most likely be one of the leading indicators.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/2/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.850.750.8
3/2/2020Construction Spending MoM0.60%1.80%-0.20%0.20%
3/2/2020ISM Manufacturing50.550.150.9
3/2/2020ISM New Orders51.849.852
3/2/2020ISM Prices Paid50.845.953.3
3/2/2020ISM Employment47.546.946.6
3/3/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.25%1.75%
3/3/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%1.00%1.50%
3/3/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.10%1.60%
3/3/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.83m16.84m
3/4/2020MBA Mortgage Applications15.10%1.50%
3/4/2020ADP Employment Change170k183k291k209k
3/4/2020Markit US Services PMI49.449.449.4
3/4/2020Markit US Composite PMI49.649.6
3/4/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index54.857.355.5
3/4/2020U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
3/5/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY-26.30%27.80%
3/5/2020Nonfarm Productivity1.30%1.20%1.40%
3/5/2020Unit Labor Costs1.40%0.90%1.40%
3/5/2020Initial Jobless Claims215k216k219k
3/5/2020Continuing Claims1738k1729k1724k1722k
3/5/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6363.5
3/5/2020Factory Orders-0.10%-0.50%1.80%1.90%
3/5/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.10%0.60%
3/5/2020Durable Goods Orders-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%
3/5/2020Durables Ex Transportation0.80%0.80%0.90%
3/5/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.10%1.10%
3/5/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.10%
3/6/2020Trade Balance-$46.2b-$48.9b
3/6/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
3/6/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls175k225k
3/6/2020Change in Private Payrolls160k206k
3/6/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-3k-12k
3/6/2020Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%
3/6/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
3/6/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.10%
3/6/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.3
3/6/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.40%63.40%
3/6/2020Underemployment Rate6.90%
3/6/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%-0.20%
3/6/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.70%
3/6/2020Consumer Credit$16.500b$22.055b

 

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