March 5, 2021 Headlines

Rates are higher across the curve on the back of a better than expected jobs report. The 10-year Treasury is up 5 bps as non-farm payrolls increased by 379,000 (179,000 better than expected) last month. Private payrolls saw a strong increase of 465,000 boosted by the hard hit leisure and hospitality sector which saw 355,000 jobs added last month. The unemployment rate declined slightly to 6.2% from 6.3% and the participation rate remained unchanged at 61.4%. This was a solid jobs report that paints the picture of a recovering economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 58.5 58.6 58.5 —
03/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 1.70% 1.00% 1.10%
03/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 58.9 60.8 58.7 —
03/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 80 86 82.1 —
03/01/21 ISM New Orders 60 64.8 61.1 —
03/01/21 ISM Employment — 54.4 52.6 —
03/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m 15.67m 16.63m —
03/03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.50% -11.40% —
03/03/21 ADP Employment Change 205k 117k 174k 195k
03/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 58.9 59.8 58.9 —
03/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — 59.5 58.8 —
03/03/21 ISM Services Index 58.7 55.3 58.7 —
03/03/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/04/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — -39.10% 17.40% —
03/04/21 Nonfarm Productivity -4.70% -4.20% -4.80% —
03/04/21 Unit Labor Costs 6.60% 6.00% 6.80% —
03/04/21 Initial Jobless Claims 750k 745k 730k 736k
03/04/21 Continuing Claims 4300k 4295k 4419k —
03/04/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — 48.9 47.3 —
03/04/21 Factory Orders 2.10% 2.60% 1.10% 1.60%
03/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — 1.70% 1.40% 1.90%
03/04/21 Durable Goods Orders 3.40% 3.40% 3.40% —
03/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.40% 1.30% 1.40% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.40% 0.50% —
03/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — 1.80% 2.10% —
03/05/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — 38k — —
03/05/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 200k 379k 49k 166k
03/05/21 Change in Private Payrolls 200k 465k 6k —
03/05/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k 21k -10k -14k
03/05/21 Unemployment Rate 6.30% 6.20% 6.30% —
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
03/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% 5.30% 5.40% 5.30%
03/05/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 34.6 35 34.9
03/05/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40% 61.40% 61.40% —
03/05/21 Underemployment Rate — 11.10% 11.10% —
03/05/21 Trade Balance -$67.5b -$68.2b -$66.6b -$67.0b
03/05/21 Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/05/21 Consumer Credit $12.000b — $9.734b —

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