Treasury yields are down 15-20 bps in a continued flight-to-quality meltdown, with U.S. equity futures pointing to another 3% decline at the open. A strong February jobs report released this morning was completely ignored as investors worry more about what economic damage lies ahead (unknown) versus what has already occurred. Nonfarm payrolls added 273,000 jobs (175k expected), and the headline unemployment rate fell 10 bps to 3.5%. Wage growth was in line with expectations (+3% y/y), and the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours. However, market participants remain paralyzed by the unknown, and reports of canceled conferences and temporary travel bans by major companies contribute to those worries. The 2-year Treasury yield is now at 0.45%, and the fed funds futures market is now pricing for a 0.25% funds rate by this summer.
Chief Investment Officer
|3/6/2020||Change in Nonfarm Payrolls||175k||273k||225k||273k|
|3/6/2020||Two-Month Payroll Net Revision||—||85k||—||—|
|3/6/2020||Change in Private Payrolls||160k||228k||206k||222k|
|3/6/2020||Change in Manufact. Payrolls||-3k||15k||-12k||-20k|
|3/6/2020||Average Hourly Earnings MoM||0.30%||0.30%||0.20%||—|
|3/6/2020||Average Hourly Earnings YoY||3.00%||3.00%||3.10%||—|
|3/6/2020||Average Weekly Hours All Employees||34.3||34.4||34.3||—|
|3/6/2020||Labor Force Participation Rate||63.40%||63.40%||63.40%||—|
|3/6/2020||Wholesale Inventories MoM||-0.20%||—||-0.20%||—|
|3/6/2020||Wholesale Trade Sales MoM||—||—||-0.70%||—|
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