March 6, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are down 15-20 bps in a continued flight-to-quality meltdown, with U.S. equity futures pointing to another 3% decline at the open. A strong February jobs report released this morning was completely ignored as investors worry more about what economic damage lies ahead (unknown) versus what has already occurred. Nonfarm payrolls added 273,000 jobs (175k expected), and the headline unemployment rate fell 10 bps to 3.5%. Wage growth was in line with expectations (+3% y/y), and the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours. However, market participants remain paralyzed by the unknown, and reports of canceled conferences and temporary travel bans by major companies contribute to those worries. The 2-year Treasury yield is now at 0.45%, and the fed funds futures market is now pricing for a 0.25% funds rate by this summer. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/6/2020Trade Balance-$46.1b-$45.3b-$48.9b-$48.6b
3/6/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls175k273k225k273k
3/6/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision85k
3/6/2020Change in Private Payrolls160k228k206k222k
3/6/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-3k15k-12k-20k
3/6/2020Unemployment Rate3.60%3.50%3.60%
3/6/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%
3/6/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%3.10%
3/6/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.434.3
3/6/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.40%63.40%63.40%
3/6/2020Underemployment Rate7.00%6.90%
3/6/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%-0.20%
3/6/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.70%
3/6/2020Consumer Credit$16.500b$22.055b

 

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