March 6, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are better bid to start the week, with yields down 2-5 basis points across the curve. The major events for this week will be the monthly jobs report on Friday, and Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow morning. For the jobs report, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 215,000 according to Bloomberg’s survey, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.4%. However, actual job growth has exceeded the consensus forecast for 10 consecutive months. Also worth noting, January job openings will be released on Wednesday morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
3/6/2023 Factory Orders -1.80% 1.80%
3/6/2023 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.00% -1.20%
3/6/2023 Durable Goods Orders -4.50% -4.50%
3/6/2023 Durables Ex Transportation 0.70% 0.70%
3/6/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.80%
3/6/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 1.10%
3/7/2023 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -0.50% 0.00%
3/7/2023 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.40% -0.40%
3/7/2023 Consumer Credit $25.350b $11.565b
3/8/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.70%
3/8/2023 ADP Employment Change 200k 106k
3/8/2023 Trade Balance -$68.8b -$67.4b
3/8/2023 Revisions: JOLTS
3/8/2023 JOLTS Job Openings 10500k 11012k
3/9/2023 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 440.00%
3/9/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 195k 190k
3/9/2023 Continuing Claims 1660k 1655k
3/9/2023 Household Change in Net Worth -$392b
3/10/2023 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 223k 517k
3/10/2023 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 71k
3/10/2023 Change in Private Payrolls 215k 443k
3/10/2023 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 10k 19k
3/10/2023 Unemployment Rate 3.40% 3.40%
3/10/2023 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
3/10/2023 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.70% 4.40%
3/10/2023 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6 34.7
3/10/2023 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.40% 62.40%
3/10/2023 Underemployment Rate 6.60%
3/10/2023 Monthly Budget Statement -$256.0b -$38.8b

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