US Treasuries are unchanged, and equities are set to open slightly lower this morning (S&P500 -.07%) as the US trade deficit widened in 2018 to $621 billion, a new 10-year high. A strong dollar and retaliatory tariffs obstructed exports causing a decline of 1.9%. On the other hand, imports rose by 2.1% as domestic demand remains strong. The large December widening, and November’s revision should subtract approximately .2% from the fourth quarter rise in real GDP.
Chris EckhoffAssociate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 03/04/19 | Conference Board Revises January LEI Report | ||||
| 03/04/19 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | -0.60% | 0.80% | — |
| 03/05/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 56.2 | 56 | 56.2 | — |
| 03/05/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.5 | 55.8 | — |
| 03/05/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57.4 | 59.7 | 56.7 | — |
| 03/05/19 | New Home Sales | 600k | 621k | 657k | 599k |
| 03/05/19 | New Home Sales MoM | -8.70% | 3.70% | 16.90% | 9.10% |
| 03/05/19 | Monthly Budget Statement | $10.0b | $8.7b | $49.2b | — |
| 03/06/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | 5.30% | — |
| 03/06/19 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | 183k | 213k | 300k |
| 03/06/19 | Trade Balance | -$57.9b | -$59.8b | -$49.3b | -$50.3b |
| 03/06/19 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 03/07/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 18.70% | — |
| 03/07/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 225k | — |
| 03/07/19 | Continuing Claims | 1774k | — | 1805k | — |
| 03/07/19 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.50% | — | 2.30% | 2.20% |
| 03/07/19 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.70% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 03/07/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61 | — |
| 03/07/19 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2070b | — |
| 03/07/19 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | — | $16.554b | — |
| 03/08/19 | Housing Starts | 1195k | — | 1078k | — |
| 03/08/19 | Housing Starts MoM | 10.90% | — | -11.20% | — |
| 03/08/19 | Building Permits | 1287k | — | 1326k | — |
| 03/08/19 | Building Permits MoM | -2.90% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 03/08/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 181k | — | 304k | — |
| 03/08/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 03/08/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 180k | — | 296k | — |
| 03/08/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 11k | — | 13k | — |
| 03/08/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 03/08/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 03/08/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 03/08/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 03/08/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.20% | — | 63.20% | — |
| 03/08/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.10% | — |