US Treasuries are unchanged, and equities are set to open slightly lower this morning (S&P500 -.07%) as the US trade deficit widened in 2018 to $621 billion, a new 10-year high. A strong dollar and retaliatory tariffs obstructed exports causing a decline of 1.9%. On the other hand, imports rose by 2.1% as domestic demand remains strong. The large December widening, and November’s revision should subtract approximately .2% from the fourth quarter rise in real GDP.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/04/19Conference Board Revises January LEI Report
03/04/19Construction Spending MoM0.10%-0.60%0.80%
03/05/19Markit US Services PMI56.25656.2
03/05/19Markit US Composite PMI55.555.8
03/05/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index57.459.756.7
03/05/19New Home Sales600k621k657k599k
03/05/19New Home Sales MoM-8.70%3.70%16.90%9.10%
03/05/19Monthly Budget Statement$10.0b$8.7b$49.2b
03/06/19MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%5.30%
03/06/19ADP Employment Change190k183k213k300k
03/06/19Trade Balance-$57.9b-$59.8b-$49.3b-$50.3b
03/06/19U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/07/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY18.70%
03/07/19Initial Jobless Claims225k225k
03/07/19Continuing Claims1774k1805k
03/07/19Nonfarm Productivity1.50%2.30%2.20%
03/07/19Unit Labor Costs1.70%0.90%
03/07/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61
03/07/19Household Change in Net Worth$2070b
03/07/19Consumer Credit$17.000b$16.554b
03/08/19Housing Starts1195k1078k
03/08/19Housing Starts MoM10.90%-11.20%
03/08/19Building Permits1287k1326k
03/08/19Building Permits MoM-2.90%0.30%
03/08/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls181k304k
03/08/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/08/19Change in Private Payrolls180k296k
03/08/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls11k13k
03/08/19Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%
03/08/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
03/08/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%3.20%
03/08/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
03/08/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.20%
03/08/19Underemployment Rate8.10%