March 7, 2022 Headlines

Reports that U.S. is strongly considering a ban of Russian oil imports has prices above $120 a barrel in futures markets this morning. Brent crude prices actually topped $139 a barrel for a brief moment before settling back in the low $120s. Treasury yields are up 4-5 basis points, across the curve, and 10-year inflation breakeven yields in the TIPS market hit the highest level since 2005 in response to the oil headlines. Beyond the focus on geopolitical events, this week’s economic calendar is headlined by the February CPI report (Thursday). We’ve now entered the blackout period for the March 16 FOMC meeting, so there will be no Fed speakers this week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/07/22	Consumer Credit	$24.500b	—	$18.898b	—
03/08/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97.4	—	97.1	—
03/08/22	Trade Balance	-$87.3b	—	-$80.7b	—
03/08/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	—	0.80%	—
03/08/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.20%	—
03/09/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.70%	—
03/09/22	Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/09/22	JOLTS Job Openings	10899k	—	10925k	—
03/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-1.70%	-1.80%
03/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.10%	-3.00%
03/10/22	CPI MoM	0.80%	—	0.60%	—
03/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
03/10/22	CPI YoY	7.90%	—	7.50%	—
03/10/22	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	215k	—
03/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.40%	—	6.00%	—
03/10/22	Continuing Claims	1420k	—	1476k	—
03/10/22	CPI Index NSA	283.73	—	281.148	—
03/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	288.006	—	286.431	—
03/10/22	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$2362b	—
03/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	—	—	$118.7b	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	61	—	62.8	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	67	—	68.2	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	58	—	59.4	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	4.90%	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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