March 7, 2022 Headlines

Reports that U.S. is strongly considering a ban of Russian oil imports has prices above $120 a barrel in futures markets this morning. Brent crude prices actually topped $139 a barrel for a brief moment before settling back in the low $120s. Treasury yields are up 4-5 basis points, across the curve, and 10-year inflation breakeven yields in the TIPS market hit the highest level since 2005 in response to the oil headlines. Beyond the focus on geopolitical events, this week’s economic calendar is headlined by the February CPI report (Thursday). We’ve now entered the blackout period for the March 16 FOMC meeting, so there will be no Fed speakers this week.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/07/22Consumer Credit$24.500b$18.898b
03/08/22NFIB Small Business Optimism97.497.1
03/08/22Trade Balance-$87.3b-$80.7b
03/08/22Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
03/08/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%
03/09/22MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%
03/09/22Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/09/22JOLTS Job Openings10899k10925k
03/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.70%-1.80%
03/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.10%-3.00%
03/10/22CPI MoM0.80%0.60%
03/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
03/10/22CPI YoY7.90%7.50%
03/10/22Initial Jobless Claims220k215k
03/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.40%6.00%
03/10/22Continuing Claims1420k1476k
03/10/22CPI Index NSA283.73281.148
03/10/22CPI Core Index SA288.006286.431
03/10/22Household Change in Net Worth$2362b
03/10/22Monthly Budget Statement$118.7b
03/11/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6162.8
03/11/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions6768.2
03/11/22U. of Mich. Expectations5859.4
03/11/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%
03/11/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%

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