Treasury prices are higher and equities lower (risk off trade) in response to the announcement late yesterday that Trump’s chief economic advisor Gary Cohn is resigning. The move is reportedly in response to Cohn’s strong objections to Trump’s proposed tariffs, although there have been rumors of Cohn stepping down for several months. Lost in the Cohn headlines was Fed Governor Lael Brainard’s hawkish shift during a speech last night. Brainard has been one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, but she suggested that economic headwinds have now turned to tailwinds, specifically noting strong growth fundamentals and fiscal stimulus.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 03/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 |
| 03/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.8 | 55.9 |
| 03/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 59 | 59.5 | 59.9 |
| 03/06/2018 | Factory Orders | -1.40% | -1.40% | 1.70% |
| 03/06/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 03/06/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -3.60% | -3.60% | -3.70% |
| 03/06/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | -0.30% | -0.30% |
| 03/06/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.30% | -0.20% |
| 03/06/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 03/07/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.30% | 2.70% |
| 03/07/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 200k | 235k | 234k |
| 03/07/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 03/07/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.10% | 2.50% | 2.00% |
| 03/07/2018 | Trade Balance | -$55.0b | -$56.6b | -$53.1b |
| 03/07/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 03/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $17.650b | — | $18.447b |
| 03/08/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -2.80% |
| 03/08/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 210k |
| 03/08/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1919k | — | 1931k |
| 03/08/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.2 |
| 03/08/2018 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $1742b |
| 03/09/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 200k | — | 200k |
| 03/09/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — |
| 03/09/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 198k | — | 196k |
| 03/09/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | — | 15k |
| 03/09/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.10% |
| 03/09/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.20% |
| 03/09/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/09/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.90% |
| 03/09/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.3 |
| 03/09/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% |
| 03/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.20% |
| 03/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% |