Treasury prices are higher and equities lower (risk off trade) in response to the announcement late yesterday that Trump’s chief economic advisor Gary Cohn is resigning. The move is reportedly in response to Cohn’s strong objections to Trump’s proposed tariffs, although there have been rumors of Cohn stepping down for several months. Lost in the Cohn headlines was Fed Governor Lael Brainard’s hawkish shift during a speech last night. Brainard has been one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, but she suggested that economic headwinds have now turned to tailwinds, specifically noting strong growth fundamentals and fiscal stimulus.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
03/05/2018Markit US Services PMI55.955.955.9
03/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.855.9
03/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite5959.559.9
03/06/2018Factory Orders-1.40%-1.40%1.70%
03/06/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.70%
03/06/2018Durable Goods Orders-3.60%-3.60%-3.70%
03/06/2018Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%-0.30%
03/06/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.30%-0.20%
03/06/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.10%
03/07/2018MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%2.70%
03/07/2018ADP Employment Change200k235k234k
03/07/2018Nonfarm Productivity-0.10%0.00%-0.10%
03/07/2018Unit Labor Costs2.10%2.50%2.00%
03/07/2018Trade Balance-$55.0b-$56.6b-$53.1b
03/07/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book   
03/07/2018Consumer Credit$17.650b$18.447b
03/08/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-2.80%
03/08/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k210k
03/08/2018Continuing Claims1919k1931k
03/08/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.2
03/08/2018Household Change in Net Worth$1742b
03/09/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls200k200k
03/09/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/09/2018Change in Private Payrolls198k196k
03/09/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k15k
03/09/2018Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%
03/09/2018Underemployment Rate8.20%
03/09/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
03/09/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.90%
03/09/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.3
03/09/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
03/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.20%
03/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.70%