Treasury prices are higher and equities lower (risk off trade) in response to the announcement late yesterday that Trump’s chief economic advisor Gary Cohn is resigning. The move is reportedly in response to Cohn’s strong objections to Trump’s proposed tariffs, although there have been rumors of Cohn stepping down for several months. Lost in the Cohn headlines was Fed Governor Lael Brainard’s hawkish shift during a speech last night. Brainard has been one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, but she suggested that economic headwinds have now turned to tailwinds, specifically noting strong growth fundamentals and fiscal stimulus.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior
03/05/2018 Markit US Services PMI 55.9 55.9 55.9
03/05/2018 Markit US Composite PMI 55.8 55.9
03/05/2018 ISM Non-Manf. Composite 59 59.5 59.9
03/06/2018 Factory Orders -1.40% -1.40% 1.70%
03/06/2018 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.40% 0.70%
03/06/2018 Durable Goods Orders -3.60% -3.60% -3.70%
03/06/2018 Durables Ex Transportation -0.30% -0.30%
03/06/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.30% -0.20%
03/06/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.10% 0.10%
03/07/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.30% 2.70%
03/07/2018 ADP Employment Change 200k 235k 234k
03/07/2018 Nonfarm Productivity -0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
03/07/2018 Unit Labor Costs 2.10% 2.50% 2.00%
03/07/2018 Trade Balance -$55.0b -$56.6b -$53.1b
03/07/2018 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book      
03/07/2018 Consumer Credit $17.650b $18.447b
03/08/2018 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -2.80%
03/08/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 210k
03/08/2018 Continuing Claims 1919k 1931k
03/08/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.2
03/08/2018 Household Change in Net Worth $1742b
03/09/2018 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 200k 200k
03/09/2018 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/09/2018 Change in Private Payrolls 198k 196k
03/09/2018 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k 15k
03/09/2018 Unemployment Rate 4.00% 4.10%
03/09/2018 Underemployment Rate 8.20%
03/09/2018 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.30%
03/09/2018 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 2.80% 2.90%
03/09/2018 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.3
03/09/2018 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70% 62.70%
03/09/2018 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.20%
03/09/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.70% 0.70%