March 8, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are another 3-7 basis points higher today as the surge in oil and other commodity prices is fueling concerns of a surge in margin calls. Prices for nickel, copper, and palladium hit historic highs yesterday, with nickel trading halted after a 250% intraday price increase. Russia and Ukraine are the largest commodity exporters in the world, and the combination of the war and subsequent sanctions are wreaking havoc in several commodity markets, which are inherently leveraged. Also weighing on Treasuries this morning are reports that the European Union is considering massive joint bond sales to fund energy and defense spending. US equity futures are little changed ahead of the open following yesterday’s selloff that sent the S&P 500 2.95% lower. Heading into this week, Thursday’s CPI report was a big focus for financial markets, but with this runup in commodity prices, its importance is fading. It’s hard to think that February data might be stale, but the narrative is quickly changing in this market.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/07/22Consumer Credit$24.250b$6.838b$18.898b$22.384b
03/08/22NFIB Small Business Optimism97.395.797.1
03/08/22Trade Balance-$87.3b-$89.7b-$80.7b-$82.0b
03/08/22Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
03/08/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%0.20%
03/09/22MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%
03/09/22Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/09/22JOLTS Job Openings10950k10925k
03/10/22CPI MoM0.80%0.60%
03/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
03/10/22CPI YoY7.80%7.50%
03/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.40%6.00%
03/10/22CPI Index NSA283.688281.148
03/10/22CPI Core Index SA287.978286.431
03/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.70%-1.80%
03/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.10%-3.00%
03/10/22Initial Jobless Claims219k215k
03/10/22Continuing Claims1450k1476k
03/10/22Household Change in Net Worth$2362b
03/10/22Monthly Budget Statement-$210.0b$118.7b
03/11/22U. of Mich. Sentiment61.362.8
03/11/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions6668.2
03/11/22U. of Mich. Expectations57.559.4
03/11/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%4.90%
03/11/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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