March 8, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are another 3-7 basis points higher today as the surge in oil and other commodity prices is fueling concerns of a surge in margin calls. Prices for nickel, copper, and palladium hit historic highs yesterday, with nickel trading halted after a 250% intraday price increase. Russia and Ukraine are the largest commodity exporters in the world, and the combination of the war and subsequent sanctions are wreaking havoc in several commodity markets, which are inherently leveraged. Also weighing on Treasuries this morning are reports that the European Union is considering massive joint bond sales to fund energy and defense spending. US equity futures are little changed ahead of the open following yesterday’s selloff that sent the S&P 500 2.95% lower. Heading into this week, Thursday’s CPI report was a big focus for financial markets, but with this runup in commodity prices, its importance is fading. It’s hard to think that February data might be stale, but the narrative is quickly changing in this market.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/07/22	Consumer Credit	$24.250b	$6.838b	$18.898b	$22.384b
03/08/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97.3	95.7	97.1	—
03/08/22	Trade Balance	-$87.3b	-$89.7b	-$80.7b	-$82.0b
03/08/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	—	0.80%	—
03/08/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.00%	—	0.20%	—
03/09/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.70%	—
03/09/22	Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/09/22	JOLTS Job Openings	10950k	—	10925k	—
03/10/22	CPI MoM	0.80%	—	0.60%	—
03/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
03/10/22	CPI YoY	7.80%	—	7.50%	—
03/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.40%	—	6.00%	—
03/10/22	CPI Index NSA	283.688	—	281.148	—
03/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	287.978	—	286.431	—
03/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-1.70%	-1.80%
03/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.10%	-3.00%
03/10/22	Initial Jobless Claims	219k	—	215k	—
03/10/22	Continuing Claims	1450k	—	1476k	—
03/10/22	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$2362b	—
03/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$210.0b	—	$118.7b	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	61.3	—	62.8	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	66	—	68.2	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	57.5	—	59.4	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.00%	—	4.90%	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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