Treasury prices are slightly higher following the release of the February jobs report, which showed mixed results on payrolls, wages, and unemployment. Stocks were already in the red prior to the report on negative headlines related to weaker economic data from China and Germany, as well as the rally in the U.S. dollar following yesterday’s ECB decision. S&P 500 futures are currently down 0.75% ahead of the open.
Nonfarm payrolls added only 20,000 jobs in February (185,000 expected), the lowest monthly growth figure since September 2017. On a positive note, wage growth exceeded expectations at 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y. The year-over-year rate was the highest of the current expansion and was up 30 bps from the prior month. The household survey data was also better than expected, likely reflecting the return of government workers following the shutdown (different calculation methodology than the establishment survey that produces nonfarm payrolls data). The headline unemployment rate fell 20 bps to 3.8%, driven by a 255,000 increase in household employment and slight decline in the official labor force. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those marginally attached to the workforce and those working part-time for economic reasons, plunged 80 bps to 7.3%, the lowest since March 2001. While the data within the February report was mixed, the headline payrolls data helps more dovish Fed leaders support their case to hold still from a policy perspective until it becomes more clear of the data trajectory.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/4/2019 | Conference Board Revises January LEI Report | ||||
| 3/4/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | -0.60% | 0.80% | — |
| 3/5/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 56.2 | 56 | 56.2 | — |
| 3/5/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.5 | 55.8 | — |
| 3/5/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57.4 | 59.7 | 56.7 | — |
| 3/5/2019 | New Home Sales | 600k | 621k | 657k | 599k |
| 3/5/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | -8.70% | 3.70% | 16.90% | 9.10% |
| 3/5/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | $10.0b | $8.7b | $49.2b | — |
| 3/6/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | 5.30% | — |
| 3/6/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | 183k | 213k | 300k |
| 3/6/2019 | Trade Balance | -$57.9b | -$59.8b | -$49.3b | -$50.3b |
| 3/6/2019 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 3/7/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 117.20% | 18.70% | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 223k | 225k | 226k |
| 3/7/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1772k | 1755k | 1805k | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.50% | 1.90% | 2.30% | 1.80% |
| 3/7/2019 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.70% | 2.00% | 0.90% | 1.60% |
| 3/7/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 62.1 | 61 | — |
| 3/7/2019 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | -$3730b | $2070b | $1833b |
| 3/7/2019 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | $17.049b | $16.554b | $15.363b |
| 3/8/2019 | Housing Starts | 1195k | 1230k | 1078k | 1037k |
| 3/8/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | 10.90% | 18.60% | -11.20% | -14.00% |
| 3/8/2019 | Building Permits | 1287k | 1345k | 1326k | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Building Permits MoM | -2.90% | 1.40% | 0.30% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | 20k | 304k | 311k |
| 3/8/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 12k | — | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 170k | 25k | 296k | 308k |
| 3/8/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 12k | 4k | 13k | 21k |
| 3/8/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.90% | 3.80% | 4.00% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | 3.40% | 3.20% | 3.10% |
| 3/8/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.20% | 63.20% | 63.20% | — |
| 3/8/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.30% | 8.10% | — |