The Treasury curve is down around a basis point across the curve following a quiet overnight session in which market participants were waiting on comments from the ECB as well as President Trump. The European Central Bank dropped the explicit pledge they made to increase the size of QE if necessary; signaling confidence in the state of the Eurozone’s economy. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected at 231,000 vs the consensus number of 220,000. Continuing claims fell to 1,870,000 from 1,931,000 reported in the prior week. Overall, the data surrounding the labor market continues to point to one of strength.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/05Markit US Services PMI55.955.955.9
03/05Markit US Composite PMI55.855.9
03/05ISM Non-Manf. Composite5959.559.9
03/06Factory Orders-1.40%-1.40%1.70%1.80%
03/06Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.70%0.90%
03/06Durable Goods Orders-3.60%-3.60%-3.70%
03/06Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%-0.30%
03/06Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.30%-0.20%
03/06Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.10%
03/07MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%2.70%
03/07ADP Employment Change200k235k234k244k
03/07Nonfarm Productivity-0.10%0.00%-0.10%
03/07Unit Labor Costs2.10%2.50%2.00%
03/07Trade Balance-$55.0b-$56.6b-$53.1b-$53.9b
03/07U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/07Consumer Credit$17.650b$13.906b$18.447b$19.209b
03/08Challenger Job Cuts YoY-4.30%-2.80%
03/08Initial Jobless Claims220k231k210k
03/08Continuing Claims1920k1870k1931k1934k
03/08Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.2
03/08Household Change in Net Worth$1742b
03/09Change in Nonfarm Payrolls205k200k
03/09Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
03/09Change in Private Payrolls203k196k
03/09Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k15k
03/09Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%
03/09Underemployment Rate8.20%
03/09Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
03/09Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.90%
03/09Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.3
03/09Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
03/09Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.20%
03/09Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.70%