March 9, 2021 Headlines

Buyers emerged overnight for Treasuries sending yields lower and flatter in the belly and long-end of the curve. The fall in Treasury yields is also fueling a rally in tech stocks, with NASDAQ futures up 2.25% ahead of the open (S&P 500 futures +0.94%). The NFIB small business optimism index was little changed in February versus the prior month and below expectations. At 95.8, the index has now held below the long-run average of 98.3 for three consecutive months. The February CPI report will be released tomorrow morning, and year-over-year growth in core prices is expected to remain at 1.4%, unchanged from January.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
3/9/2021 NFIB Small Business Optimism 97 95.8 95
3/10/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.50%
3/10/2021 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.30%
3/10/2021 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.00%
3/10/2021 CPI YoY 1.70% 1.40%
3/10/2021 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.40% 1.40%
3/10/2021 CPI Index NSA 263.125 261.582
3/10/2021 CPI Core Index SA 270.394 270.025
3/10/2021 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 6.10% 5.70%
3/10/2021 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 4.00% 3.90%
3/10/2021 Monthly Budget Statement -$305.0b -$235.3b
3/11/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 725k 745k
3/11/2021 Continuing Claims 4200k 4295k
3/11/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort 48.9
3/11/2021 JOLTS Job Openings 6650 6646
3/11/2021 Household Change in Net Worth $3817b
3/12/2021 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 1.30%
3/12/2021 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 1.20%
3/12/2021 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 1.20%
3/12/2021 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.70% 1.70%
3/12/2021 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.60% 2.00%
3/12/2021 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.50% 2.00%
3/12/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 78.5 76.8
3/12/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 88.3 86.2
3/12/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations 72 70.7
3/12/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.30%
3/12/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%

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