March 9, 2021 Headlines

Buyers emerged overnight for Treasuries sending yields lower and flatter in the belly and long-end of the curve. The fall in Treasury yields is also fueling a rally in tech stocks, with NASDAQ futures up 2.25% ahead of the open (S&P 500 futures +0.94%). The NFIB small business optimism index was little changed in February versus the prior month and below expectations. At 95.8, the index has now held below the long-run average of 98.3 for three consecutive months. The February CPI report will be released tomorrow morning, and year-over-year growth in core prices is expected to remain at 1.4%, unchanged from January.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/9/2021NFIB Small Business Optimism9795.895—
3/10/2021MBA Mortgage Applications——0.50%—
3/10/2021CPI MoM0.40%—0.30%—
3/10/2021CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.00%—
3/10/2021CPI YoY1.70%—1.40%—
3/10/2021CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.40%—1.40%—
3/10/2021CPI Index NSA263.125—261.582—
3/10/2021CPI Core Index SA270.394—270.025—
3/10/2021Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——6.10%5.70%
3/10/2021Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——4.00%3.90%
3/10/2021Monthly Budget Statement-$305.0b—-$235.3b—
3/11/2021Initial Jobless Claims725k—745k—
3/11/2021Continuing Claims4200k—4295k—
3/11/2021Langer Consumer Comfort——48.9—
3/11/2021JOLTS Job Openings6650—6646—
3/11/2021Household Change in Net Worth——$3817b—
3/12/2021PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%—1.30%—
3/12/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—1.20%—
3/12/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%—1.20%—
3/12/2021PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%—1.70%—
3/12/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%—2.00%—
3/12/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%—2.00%—
3/12/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment78.5—76.8—
3/12/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.3—86.2—
3/12/2021U. of Mich. Expectations72—70.7—
3/12/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%—3.30%—
3/12/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.70%—

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