March 9, 2022 Headlines

Risk assets are rebounding this morning following somewhat constructive comments from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders, and dip buyers emerge with the S&P 500 now down 12.5% YTD through yesterday. Also boosting risk tone today is a 3% decline in oil futures (WTI now down 8% from yesterday’s high). The MBA mortgage applications index jumped 8.5% last week, with refi and purchase applications rising 8.5% and 8.6%, respectively. The rally in rates from geopolitical risks sent the average 30-year mortgage rate down 6 bps w/w according to the MBA survey, likely sparking a sense of urgency from borrowers and lenders alike given the sharp selloff experienced so far in 2022.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/07/22	Consumer Credit	$24.250b	$6.838b	$18.898b	$22.384b
03/08/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97.3	95.7	97.1	—
03/08/22	Trade Balance	-$87.3b	-$89.7b	-$80.7b	-$82.0b
03/08/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	0.80%	0.80%	—
03/08/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.00%	4.00%	0.20%	0.80%
03/09/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	8.50%	-0.70%	—
03/09/22	Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/09/22	JOLTS Job Openings	10950k	—	10925k	—
03/10/22	CPI MoM	0.80%	—	0.60%	—
03/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
03/10/22	CPI YoY	7.80%	—	7.50%	—
03/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.40%	—	6.00%	—
03/10/22	CPI Index NSA	283.688	—	281.148	—
03/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	287.978	—	286.431	—
03/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-1.70%	-1.80%
03/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.10%	-3.00%
03/10/22	Initial Jobless Claims	219k	—	215k	—
03/10/22	Continuing Claims	1450k	—	1476k	—
03/10/22	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$2362b	—
03/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$210.0b	—	-$310.9b	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	61.3	—	62.8	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	66	—	68.2	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	57.5	—	59.4	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.00%	—	4.90%	—
03/11/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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