March 9, 2022 Headlines

Risk assets are rebounding this morning following somewhat constructive comments from both Ukrainian and Russian leaders, and dip buyers emerge with the S&P 500 now down 12.5% YTD through yesterday. Also boosting risk tone today is a 3% decline in oil futures (WTI now down 8% from yesterday’s high). The MBA mortgage applications index jumped 8.5% last week, with refi and purchase applications rising 8.5% and 8.6%, respectively. The rally in rates from geopolitical risks sent the average 30-year mortgage rate down 6 bps w/w according to the MBA survey, likely sparking a sense of urgency from borrowers and lenders alike given the sharp selloff experienced so far in 2022.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/07/22Consumer Credit$24.250b$6.838b$18.898b$22.384b
03/08/22NFIB Small Business Optimism97.395.797.1
03/08/22Trade Balance-$87.3b-$89.7b-$80.7b-$82.0b
03/08/22Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%0.80%
03/08/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%4.00%0.20%0.80%
03/09/22MBA Mortgage Applications8.50%-0.70%
03/09/22Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
03/09/22JOLTS Job Openings10950k10925k
03/10/22CPI MoM0.80%0.60%
03/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
03/10/22CPI YoY7.80%7.50%
03/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.40%6.00%
03/10/22CPI Index NSA283.688281.148
03/10/22CPI Core Index SA287.978286.431
03/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.70%-1.80%
03/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.10%-3.00%
03/10/22Initial Jobless Claims219k215k
03/10/22Continuing Claims1450k1476k
03/10/22Household Change in Net Worth$2362b
03/10/22Monthly Budget Statement-$210.0b-$310.9b
03/11/22U. of Mich. Sentiment61.362.8
03/11/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions6668.2
03/11/22U. of Mich. Expectations57.559.4
03/11/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%4.90%
03/11/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%

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