The Treasury curve is 3 to 4 basis points higher across the curve. Following news that President Trump had accepted a meeting invitation from Kim Jong Un, risk assets rallied as there is a belief that this meeting could lower geopolitical tensions. Today’s jobs report came in better than expected with an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 313,000 vs the consensus number of 205,000. Average hourly earnings fell from the spike in January of 0.3% to 0.1% signaling that the increase at the beginning of the year were more an anomaly and the wage growth may increase more gradually than the January data implied.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 03/05 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 |
| 03/05 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.8 | 55.9 |
| 03/05 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 59 | 59.5 | 59.9 |
| 03/06 | Factory Orders | -1.40% | -1.40% | 1.70% |
| 03/06 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 03/06 | Durable Goods Orders | -3.60% | -3.60% | -3.70% |
| 03/06 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | -0.30% | -0.30% |
| 03/06 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.30% | -0.20% |
| 03/06 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 03/07 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.30% | 2.70% |
| 03/07 | ADP Employment Change | 200k | 235k | 234k |
| 03/07 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 03/07 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.10% | 2.50% | 2.00% |
| 03/07 | Trade Balance | -$55.0b | -$56.6b | -$53.1b |
| 03/07 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 03/07 | Consumer Credit | $17.650b | $13.906b | $18.447b |
| 03/08 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -4.30% | -2.80% |
| 03/08 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 231k | 210k |
| 03/08 | Continuing Claims | 1920k | 1870k | 1931k |
| 03/08 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 56.8 | 56.2 |
| 03/08 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | $2076b | $1742b |
| 03/09 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 205k | 313k | 200k |
| 03/09 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 54k | — |
| 03/09 | Change in Private Payrolls | 205k | 287k | 196k |
| 03/09 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | 31k | 15k |
| 03/09 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | 4.10% | 4.10% |
| 03/09 | Underemployment Rate | — | 8.20% | 8.20% |
| 03/09 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 03/09 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.80% | 2.60% | 2.90% |
| 03/09 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.3 |
| 03/09 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | 63.00% | 62.70% |
| 03/09 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 03/09 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | -1.10% | 1.20% |