The Treasury curve is 3 to 4 basis points higher across the curve. Following news that President Trump had accepted a meeting invitation from Kim Jong Un, risk assets rallied as there is a belief that this meeting could lower geopolitical tensions. Today’s jobs report came in better than expected with an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 313,000 vs the consensus number of 205,000. Average hourly earnings fell from the spike in January of 0.3% to 0.1% signaling that the increase at the beginning of the year were more an anomaly and the wage growth may increase more gradually than the January data implied.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
03/05Markit US Services PMI55.955.955.9
03/05Markit US Composite PMI55.855.9
03/05ISM Non-Manf. Composite5959.559.9
03/06Factory Orders-1.40%-1.40%1.70%
03/06Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.70%
03/06Durable Goods Orders-3.60%-3.60%-3.70%
03/06Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%-0.30%
03/06Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.30%-0.20%
03/06Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%0.10%
03/07MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%2.70%
03/07ADP Employment Change200k235k234k
03/07Nonfarm Productivity-0.10%0.00%-0.10%
03/07Unit Labor Costs2.10%2.50%2.00%
03/07Trade Balance-$55.0b-$56.6b-$53.1b
03/07U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/07Consumer Credit$17.650b$13.906b$18.447b
03/08Challenger Job Cuts YoY-4.30%-2.80%
03/08Initial Jobless Claims220k231k210k
03/08Continuing Claims1920k1870k1931k
03/08Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.856.2
03/08Household Change in Net Worth$2076b$1742b
03/09Change in Nonfarm Payrolls205k313k200k
03/09Two-Month Payroll Net Revision54k
03/09Change in Private Payrolls205k287k196k
03/09Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k31k15k
03/09Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%4.10%
03/09Underemployment Rate8.20%8.20%
03/09Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%
03/09Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.60%2.90%
03/09Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.534.3
03/09Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%63.00%62.70%
03/09Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.80%0.70%
03/09Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-1.10%1.20%