May 1, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries are unchanged in a quiet overnight session with most of Asia and Europe observing a holiday. In addition, investors are patiently waiting for the Federal Reserve rate decision later today. The market expects Fed officials to keep short term interest rates unchanged and acknowledge muted inflation. In the equity market, S&P 500 futures are up .34% on the back of improving sales forecasts and positive news on US-China trade talks as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called the latest meeting in Beijing “productive”. The Chinese delegation is scheduled to travel to Washington next week as the White House increased the pressure to reach a trade deal in the next two weeks.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
04/29/19BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays)
04/29/19Personal Income0.40%0.10%0.20%—
04/29/19Personal Spending0.30%0.10%0.10%0.30%
04/29/19Real Personal Spending—0.00%0.10%0.40%
04/29/19Personal Spending0.70%0.90%—0.10%
04/29/19PCE Deflator MoM—0.10%-0.10%0.00%
04/29/19Real Personal Spending0.50%0.70%—0.00%
04/29/19PCE Deflator YoY—1.30%1.40%—
04/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%—0.10%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM—0.10%0.10%—
04/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%—1.30%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY—1.70%1.80%—
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%—0.10%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%—1.70%
04/29/19Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1028.36.9
04/29/19Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing
04/30/19Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.70%—
04/30/19Revisions: Employment Cost Index
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.20%0.11%0.09%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.95%3.00%3.58%3.51%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.08212.7212.41212.27
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.90%4.01%4.26%4.22%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—205.04204.71204.62
04/30/19MNI Chicago PMI58.552.658.7—
04/30/19Pending Home Sales MoM1.50%3.80%-1.00%—
04/30/19Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.00%-3.20%-5.00%—
04/30/19Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.8129.2124.1124.2
04/30/19Conf. Board Present Situation—168.3160.6163
04/30/19Conf. Board Expectations—10399.898.3
05/01/19MBA Mortgage Applications—-4.30%-7.30%—
05/01/19ADP Employment Change180k275k129k151k
05/01/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.4—52.4—
05/01/19ISM Manufacturing55—55.3—
05/01/19ISM Employment——57.5—
05/01/19ISM Prices Paid55—54.3—
05/01/19ISM New Orders——57.4—
05/01/19Construction Spending MoM0.00%—1.00%—
05/01/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%—2.50%—
05/01/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%—2.25%—
05/01/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%—2.40%—
05/01/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m—17.50m—
05/02/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY——0.40%—
05/02/19Initial Jobless Claims215k—230k—
05/02/19Continuing Claims1660k—1655k—
05/02/19Nonfarm Productivity2.20%—1.90%—
05/02/19Unit Labor Costs1.50%—2.00%—
05/02/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——60.8—
05/02/19Durable Goods Orders——2.70%—
05/02/19Factory Orders1.50%—-0.50%—
05/02/19Durables Ex Transportation——0.40%—
05/02/19Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.30%—
05/02/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——1.30%—
05/02/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.20%—
05/03/19Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.0b———
05/03/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
05/03/19Retail Inventories MoM0.10%———
05/03/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls187k—196k—
05/03/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——14k—
05/03/19Change in Private Payrolls185k—182k—
05/03/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k—-6k—
05/03/19Unemployment Rate3.80%—3.80%—
05/03/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.10%—
05/03/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%—3.20%—
05/03/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.5—34.5—
05/03/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%—63.00%—
05/03/19Underemployment Rate——7.30%—
05/03/19Markit US Services PMI52.9—52.9—
05/03/19Markit US Composite PMI——52.8—
05/03/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index57—56.1—

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