US Treasuries are unchanged in a quiet overnight session with most of Asia and Europe observing a holiday. In addition, investors are patiently waiting for the Federal Reserve rate decision later today. The market expects Fed officials to keep short term interest rates unchanged and acknowledge muted inflation. In the equity market, S&P 500 futures are up .34% on the back of improving sales forecasts and positive news on US-China trade talks as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called the latest meeting in Beijing “productive”. The Chinese delegation is scheduled to travel to Washington next week as the White House increased the pressure to reach a trade deal in the next two weeks.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
04/29/19 | BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays) | ||||
04/29/19 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
04/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
04/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | — | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.40% |
04/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.70% | 0.90% | — | 0.10% |
04/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | — | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
04/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | 0.70% | — | 0.00% |
04/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | — | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
04/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
04/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | — | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
04/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | 1.50% | — | 1.30% |
04/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | — | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
04/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
04/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | 1.60% | — | 1.70% |
04/29/19 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 10 | 2 | 8.3 | 6.9 |
04/29/19 | Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing | ||||
04/30/19 | Employment Cost Index | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
04/30/19 | Revisions: Employment Cost Index | ||||
04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.11% | 0.09% |
04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.95% | 3.00% | 3.58% | 3.51% |
04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 213.08 | 212.7 | 212.41 | 212.27 |
04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.90% | 4.01% | 4.26% | 4.22% |
04/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.04 | 204.71 | 204.62 |
04/30/19 | MNI Chicago PMI | 58.5 | 52.6 | 58.7 | — |
04/30/19 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.50% | 3.80% | -1.00% | — |
04/30/19 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.00% | -3.20% | -5.00% | — |
04/30/19 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.8 | 129.2 | 124.1 | 124.2 |
04/30/19 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 168.3 | 160.6 | 163 |
04/30/19 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 103 | 99.8 | 98.3 |
05/01/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.30% | -7.30% | — |
05/01/19 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | 275k | 129k | 151k |
05/01/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | — | 52.4 | — |
05/01/19 | ISM Manufacturing | 55 | — | 55.3 | — |
05/01/19 | ISM Employment | — | — | 57.5 | — |
05/01/19 | ISM Prices Paid | 55 | — | 54.3 | — |
05/01/19 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 57.4 | — |
05/01/19 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
05/01/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
05/01/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.25% | — |
05/01/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
05/01/19 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | — | 17.50m | — |
05/02/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
05/02/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 230k | — |
05/02/19 | Continuing Claims | 1660k | — | 1655k | — |
05/02/19 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.20% | — | 1.90% | — |
05/02/19 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.50% | — | 2.00% | — |
05/02/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.8 | — |
05/02/19 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.70% | — |
05/02/19 | Factory Orders | 1.50% | — | -0.50% | — |
05/02/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.40% | — |
05/02/19 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
05/02/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.30% | — |
05/02/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.20% | — |
05/03/19 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.0b | — | — | — |
05/03/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
05/03/19 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | — | — |
05/03/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 187k | — | 196k | — |
05/03/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 14k | — |
05/03/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 185k | — | 182k | — |
05/03/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | -6k | — |
05/03/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
05/03/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
05/03/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
05/03/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
05/03/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.00% | — | 63.00% | — |
05/03/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
05/03/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 52.9 | — | 52.9 | — |
05/03/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 | — |
05/03/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57 | — | 56.1 | — |
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