May 10, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly higher across the curve as the market digests the initiation of increased tariffs and economic data from Europe and the U.S. Most major Asian and European equity indices are higher on the day, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.6%. Both headline and core CPI were softer than expected in April. The core measure rose 0.1% over the month (0.2% expected), but the year-over-year core measure was able to match expectations at 2.1% (up from 2% the prior month). While some regional Fed presidents have expressed concerns related to downward inflation pressure, Fed Chair Powell was more dismissive of disinflation risks at the May 1 FOMC press conference. Regarding the inflation impact of the increased tariffs on Chinese goods, it’s worth noting that the 25% charge will only be applied to goods that left China as of 12:01 a.m. today. Consequently, it may take 90-120 days before these tariffs are passed on to consumers by U.S. retailers according to industry experts. Meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing in Washington between senior U.S. and Chinese officials.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

5/7/2019JOLTS Job Openings7350748870877142
5/7/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$10.281b$15.188b$15.452b
5/8/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.70%-4.30%
5/9/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.20%0.60%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.00%
5/9/2019PPI Final Demand YoY2.30%2.20%2.20%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.40%2.40%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.20%2.00%
5/9/2019Trade Balance-$50.1b-$50.0b-$49.4b-$49.3b
5/9/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k228k230k
5/9/2019Continuing Claims1670k1684k1671k
5/9/2019SURVEY REPORT: U.S. Economic Forecasts in May 2019
5/9/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.860.4
5/9/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%-0.10%0.00%
5/9/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%2.30%0.30%
5/10/2019CPI MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%
5/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
5/10/2019CPI YoY2.10%2.00%1.90%
5/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.10%2.00%
5/10/2019CPI Core Index SA261.884261.735261.374
5/10/2019CPI Index NSA255.8255.548254.202
5/10/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.20%1.30%
5/10/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%1.30%1.40%
5/10/2019Monthly Budget Statement$160.5b$214.3b








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