The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning, pushing the 2-year/10-year spread lower to 0.44% (just one basis point above the current-cycle low set in mid-April). The rally in long-end Treasuries began overnight in sympathy with higher German government bond prices (attributable to progress in Italian negotiations to form a new government), and the rally in Treasuries was reinforced by the release of a tamer than expected April CPI report. Regarding the latter, core prices rose just 0.1% versus the prior month (0.2% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI was unchanged at 2.1% (2.2% expected). Slower growth in medical care and recreation costs were partly responsible for the downside miss in core prices. As it relates to Fed policy normalization, both core inflation measures (CPI and PCE) are holding right at the Fed’s target, and as such, the markets remain fully priced for June and September rate hikes.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $15.200b | $11.622b | $10.601b | $13.639b |
| 05/08/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104.5 | 104.8 | 104.7 | — |
| 05/08/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6100 | 6550 | 6052 | 6078 |
| 05/09/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.40% | -2.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | 2.60% | 3.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.70% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.50% | 2.90% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | 0.30% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
| 05/10/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 219k | 211k | 211k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | 1790k | 1756k | 1760k |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.40% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | 2.10% | 2.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 250.7 | 250.546 | 249.554 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | 256.45 | 256.2 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.90% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | $212.0b | — | -$208.7b | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.3 | — | 98.8 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.4 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 05/14/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 5.17% | — |
| 05/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.19% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | — | 15.8 | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | — | 69 | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $44.7b | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $49.0b | — |
| 05/16/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Revisions: Housing Starts | ||||
| 05/16/2018 | Housing Starts | 1319k | — | 1319k | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Building Permits | 1343k | — | 1354k | 1379k |
| 05/16/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -2.60% | — | 2.50% | 4.40% |
| 05/16/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.00% | — |
| 05/17/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 211k | — |
| 05/17/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1790k | — |
| 05/17/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.4 | — | 23.2 | — |
| 05/17/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 52.5 | — |
| 05/17/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | — | — |
| 05/17/2018 | Leading Index | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |