The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning, pushing the 2-year/10-year spread lower to 0.44% (just one basis point above the current-cycle low set in mid-April). The rally in long-end Treasuries began overnight in sympathy with higher German government bond prices (attributable to progress in Italian negotiations to form a new government), and the rally in Treasuries was reinforced by the release of a tamer than expected April CPI report. Regarding the latter, core prices rose just 0.1% versus the prior month (0.2% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI was unchanged at 2.1% (2.2% expected). Slower growth in medical care and recreation costs were partly responsible for the downside miss in core prices. As it relates to Fed policy normalization, both core inflation measures (CPI and PCE) are holding right at the Fed’s target, and as such, the markets remain fully priced for June and September rate hikes.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
05/07/2018Consumer Credit$15.200b$11.622b$10.601b$13.639b
05/08/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism104.5104.8104.7
05/08/2018JOLTS Job Openings6100655060526078
05/09/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.40%-2.50%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.40%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%2.60%3.00%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.30%2.70%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%2.90%
05/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.30%0.50%
05/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%1.00%1.10%
05/10/2018Initial Jobless Claims219k211k211k
05/10/2018Continuing Claims1800k1790k1756k1760k
05/10/2018CPI MoM0.30%0.20%-0.10%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
05/10/2018CPI YoY2.50%2.50%2.40%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%2.10%
05/10/2018CPI Index NSA250.7250.546249.554
05/10/2018CPI Core Index SA256.45256.2
05/10/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%0.90%
05/10/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%0.40%0.30%
05/10/2018Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey (Table)    
05/10/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.5
05/10/2018Monthly Budget Statement$212.0b-$208.7b
05/11/2018Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.00%
05/11/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
05/11/2018Import Price Index YoY3.90%3.60%
05/11/2018Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
05/11/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.398.8
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Expectations88.4
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
05/14/2018Mortgage Delinquencies5.17%
05/14/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.19%
05/15/2018Empire Manufacturing1515.8
05/15/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.60%
05/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%0.20%
05/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%
05/15/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%
05/15/2018Business Inventories0.20%0.60%
05/15/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7069
05/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows$44.7b
05/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.0b
05/16/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.40%
05/16/2018Revisions: Housing Starts
05/16/2018Housing Starts1319k1319k
05/16/2018Housing Starts MoM0.00%1.90%
05/16/2018Building Permits1343k1354k1379k
05/16/2018Building Permits MoM-2.60%2.50%4.40%
05/16/2018Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.50%
05/16/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%
05/16/2018Capacity Utilization78.40%78.00%
05/17/2018Initial Jobless Claims211k
05/17/2018Continuing Claims1790k
05/17/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook21.423.2
05/17/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations52.5
05/17/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
05/17/2018Leading Index0.40%0.30%