Treasuries are little changed following a quiet overnight session, and the focus to start the week is Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday, as well as this week’s round of Treasury supply. Powell is likely to pour cold water on the negative rates discussion given recent pricing in fed funds futures. Contracts in March 2021 and beyond rose above par on Thursday, which implies a negative yield, and this naturally fueled the debate of whether the Fed would indeed resort to negative interest rate policy (NIRP) at some point. The general assessment by analysts in short-term fixed income markets was that the move negative was mostly attributable to technical factors as opposed to speculation of future Fed policy, but market participants will be looking for a response from Chair Powell on the topic Wednesday nevertheless.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/12/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 83.5 | — | 96.4 | — |
| 5/12/2020 | CPI MoM | -0.80% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/12/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/12/2020 | CPI YoY | 0.40% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/12/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/12/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 256.469 | — | 258.115 | — |
| 5/12/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 266 | — | 266.795 | — |
| 5/12/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/12/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 5/12/2020 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$737.0b | — | $160.3b | — |
| 5/12/2020 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 3.77% | — |
| 5/12/2020 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 0.78% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | PPI Final Demand MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | PPI Final Demand YoY | -0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 0.90% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/13/2020 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 0.40% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | -3.30% | — | -2.30% | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | -7.30% | — | -4.10% | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | -2.30% | — | -1.60% | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -3.60% | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 2500k | — | 3169k | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Continuing Claims | 24800k | — | 22647k | — |
| 5/14/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 36.9 | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -11.70% | — | -8.70% | -8.40% |
| 5/15/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -6.20% | — | -3.10% | -2.80% |
| 5/15/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | -4.40% | — | 1.70% | 2.00% |
| 5/15/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -8.40% | — | -4.50% | -4.20% |
| 5/15/2020 | Empire Manufacturing | -60 | — | -78.2 | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | -11.90% | — | -5.40% | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 64.00% | — | 72.70% | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -13.50% | — | -6.30% | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/15/2020 | Business Inventories | -0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2020 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6882 | — |
| 5/15/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68 | — | 71.8 | — |
| 5/15/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 74.3 | — |
| 5/15/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 70.1 | — |
| 5/15/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/15/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $49.4b | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$13.4b | — |
| 5/15/2020 | Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders | ||||
| 5/15/2020 | Revisions: Manufacturing |
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