May 11, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed following a quiet overnight session, and the focus to start the week is Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday, as well as this week’s round of Treasury supply. Powell is likely to pour cold water on the negative rates discussion given recent pricing in fed funds futures. Contracts in March 2021 and beyond rose above par on Thursday, which implies a negative yield, and this naturally fueled the debate of whether the Fed would indeed resort to negative interest rate policy (NIRP) at some point. The general assessment by analysts in short-term fixed income markets was that the move negative was mostly attributable to technical factors as opposed to speculation of future Fed policy, but market participants will be looking for a response from Chair Powell on the topic Wednesday nevertheless.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

5/12/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism83.596.4
5/12/2020CPI MoM-0.80%-0.40%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.20%-0.10%
5/12/2020CPI YoY0.40%1.50%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%2.10%
5/12/2020CPI Index NSA256.469258.115
5/12/2020CPI Core Index SA266266.795
5/12/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.60%
5/12/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.70%0.60%
5/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$737.0b$160.3b
5/12/2020Mortgage Delinquencies3.77%
5/12/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.78%
5/13/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.10%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand MoM-0.50%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.00%0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.20%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-0.40%0.70%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.90%1.40%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.40%1.00%
5/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-3.30%-2.30%
5/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%-0.10%
5/14/2020Import Price Index YoY-7.30%-4.10%
5/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-2.30%-1.60%
5/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-3.60%
5/14/2020Initial Jobless Claims2500k3169k
5/14/2020Continuing Claims24800k22647k
5/14/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort36.9
5/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-11.70%-8.70%-8.40%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-6.20%-3.10%-2.80%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-4.40%1.70%2.00%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-8.40%-4.50%-4.20%
5/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-60-78.2
5/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-11.90%-5.40%
5/15/2020Capacity Utilization64.00%72.70%
5/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-13.50%-6.30%
5/15/2020Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020Business Inventories-0.20%-0.40%
5/15/2020JOLTS Job Openings6882
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment6871.8
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions74.3
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Expectations70.1
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.10%
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
5/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.4b
5/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows-$13.4b
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing


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