May 11, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed following a quiet overnight session, and the focus to start the week is Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday, as well as this week’s round of Treasury supply. Powell is likely to pour cold water on the negative rates discussion given recent pricing in fed funds futures. Contracts in March 2021 and beyond rose above par on Thursday, which implies a negative yield, and this naturally fueled the debate of whether the Fed would indeed resort to negative interest rate policy (NIRP) at some point. The general assessment by analysts in short-term fixed income markets was that the move negative was mostly attributable to technical factors as opposed to speculation of future Fed policy, but market participants will be looking for a response from Chair Powell on the topic Wednesday nevertheless.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/12/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 83.5 96.4
5/12/2020 CPI MoM -0.80% -0.40%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.20% -0.10%
5/12/2020 CPI YoY 0.40% 1.50%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 2.10%
5/12/2020 CPI Index NSA 256.469 258.115
5/12/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266 266.795
5/12/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.60%
5/12/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.70% 0.60%
5/12/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$737.0b $160.3b
5/12/2020 Mortgage Delinquencies 3.77%
5/12/2020 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.78%
5/13/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.10%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.50% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.00% 0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM -0.20% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY -0.40% 0.70%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 0.90% 1.40%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.40% 1.00%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index MoM -3.30% -2.30%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.50% -0.10%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index YoY -7.30% -4.10%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index MoM -2.30% -1.60%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index YoY -3.60%
5/14/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 2500k 3169k
5/14/2020 Continuing Claims 24800k 22647k
5/14/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.9
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM -11.70% -8.70% -8.40%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -6.20% -3.10% -2.80%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Control Group -4.40% 1.70% 2.00%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -8.40% -4.50% -4.20%
5/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing -60 -78.2
5/15/2020 Industrial Production MoM -11.90% -5.40%
5/15/2020 Capacity Utilization 64.00% 72.70%
5/15/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -13.50% -6.30%
5/15/2020 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% -0.40%
5/15/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 6882
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 68 71.8
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 74.3
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 70.1
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.10%
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
5/15/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $49.4b
5/15/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$13.4b
5/15/2020 Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders
5/15/2020 Revisions: Manufacturing


Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.