May 11, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries have pivoted from a bull flattening move to a bear flattening following the release of another above-expectations inflation report. The 2-year note yield has traded in a 15 basis point range so far this morning, currently near the high at 2.71%. Both headline and core CPI exceeded expectations in April, with the latter surging 0.6% m/m (0.4% expected). On a year-over-year basis, both measures were down slightly from the previous month thanks to the base effect, but the bigger story for markets in this report are the upside surprises in the month-over-month inflation rates. Some of the primary drivers of the outsized gain in core prices were shelter/housing and airfares, the latter of which surged by 18.6% m/m. That monthly gain in airfares shattered the previous record of a 10.7% increase set in March. Any hopes that inflation had peaked in March clearly evaporated in this report, and it certainly doesn’t make Jerome Powell’s job any easier.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/09/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	—
05/09/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.80%	1.70%	1.70%	1.50%
05/10/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	92.9	93.2	93.2	—
05/11/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.00%	2.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.30%	1.20%	—
05/11/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.60%	0.30%	—
05/11/22	CPI YoY	8.10%	8.30%	8.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.00%	6.20%	6.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI Index NSA	288.715	289.109	287.504	—
05/11/22	CPI Core Index SA	289.822	290.455	288.811	—
05/11/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-2.60%	-2.70%	-2.60%
05/11/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.40%	-3.60%	-3.50%
05/11/22	Monthly Budget Statement	$260.0b	—	-$225.6b	—
05/12/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.50%	—	1.40%	—
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.60%	—	1.00%	—
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.60%	—	0.90%	—
05/12/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.70%	—	11.20%	—
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.90%	—	9.20%	—
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.50%	—	7.00%	—
05/12/22	Initial Jobless Claims	192k	—	200k	—
05/12/22	Continuing Claims	1368k	—	1384k	—
05/13/22	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	—	2.60%	—
05/13/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.70%	—	1.10%	—
05/13/22	Import Price Index YoY	12.10%	—	12.50%	—
05/13/22	Export Price Index MoM	0.70%	—	4.50%	—
05/13/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	18.80%	—
05/13/22	Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	64	—	65.2	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70	—	69.4	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	61.5	—	62.5	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.50%	—	5.40%	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
05/13/22	Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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