May 11, 2023 Headlines

A risk-off trade has emerged to start the day with regional banks back in the headlines. Treasury yields are down 8-9 basis points in near-parallel fashion across the curve after PacWest Bancorp reported that deposits fell 9.5% after the bank said last week that it was in talks with potential investors. The company’s stock is down 20% in pre-market trading. Western Alliance Bancorp, which has also been under pressure, came out soon after the PacWest news and said that its deposits are up $1.8 billion this quarter, including an increase in insured deposits from 68% to 79% quarter-to-date. In economic news, initial jobless claims increased by 24,000 last week to 264,000 (245k expected), the highest level of claims since October 2021. Additionally, the April PPI report was better than expected, adding more fuel to the rally in Treasuries. Two Fed leaders will be speaking today, including Governor Christopher Waller later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/11/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 264k 242k
5/11/2023 Continuing Claims 1820k 1813k 1805k 1801k
5/11/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.20% -0.50% -0.40%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
5/11/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.50% 2.30% 2.70%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.30% 3.20% 3.40%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.50% 3.40% 3.60% 3.70%
5/12/2023 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% -0.60%
5/12/2023 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.30% -0.60%
5/12/2023 Import Price Index YoY -4.80% -4.60%
5/12/2023 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% -0.30%
5/12/2023 Export Price Index YoY -5.50% -4.80%
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63 63.5
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 67.5 68.2
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 60.8 60.5
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.40% 4.60%
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 3.00%
5/15/2023 Empire Manufacturing -4 10.8
5/15/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $71.0b
5/15/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $28.0b
5/16/2023 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.70% -1.00% -0.60%
5/16/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.30% -0.80% -0.40%
5/16/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% -0.30% -0.30%
5/16/2023 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
5/16/2023 New York Fed Services Business Activity -9.8
5/16/2023 Industrial Production MoM 0.00% 0.40%
5/16/2023 Capacity Utilization 79.70% 79.80%
5/16/2023 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% -0.50%
5/16/2023 Business Inventories 0.00% 0.20%
5/16/2023 NAHB Housing Market Index 45 45
5/17/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications 6.30%
5/17/2023 Housing Starts 1400k 1420k
5/17/2023 Building Permits 1428k 1413k 1430k
5/17/2023 Housing Starts MoM -1.40% -0.80%
5/17/2023 Building Permits MoM -0.20% -8.80% -7.70%
5/18/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 264k
5/18/2023 Continuing Claims 1813k
5/18/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -21.1 -31.3
5/18/2023 Existing Home Sales 4.27m 4.44m
5/18/2023 Existing Home Sales MoM -3.90% -2.40%
5/18/2023 Leading Index -0.50% -1.20%

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